Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 predictions, player props and same-game parlay

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Game 4 of the Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat in the NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Final tips off at 8:30 pm EST on Tuesday, May 23, 2023.

After Sunday’s win, 8-seed Miami has taken a commanding 3-0 series lead and looks to pull off an unlikely sweep of the East’s 2-seed Boston.

After being underdogs in each of the opening three games, Miami has been installed as short favorites on Tuesday night. Are they the best bet in the Celtics vs Heat odds?

The Heat are 1.5-point favorites in tonight’s spread in the Celtics vs Heat odds, while being listed at -120 on the moneyline. The Celtics take back an even-money price of +100 on the moneyline. The Game 4 total is set at 216.

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Despite being the 8 seed, the Heat have been firmly in control of this series and have put themselves in a position to close out the Celtics in just four games and on their home court in Miami tonight.

In Game 1 Jimmy Butler led all players with 35 points, pacing Miami to a 123-116 win, despite a Jayson Tatum 30-point performance as well.

Game 2 saw Butler (27), Caleb Martin (25) and Bam Adebayo (22) all go over 20 points, leading Miami to a 111-105 win. Tatum again had a 30-point night with 34.

The Celtics held Butler in check in Game 3 on Sunday, holding him to just 16 points. However, the Heat found secondary scoring all over the roster.

Gabe Vincent led the Heat and all scorers with 29 points, Duncan Robinson had 22 and Martin 18.

Miami jumped out early in Game 3 leading 30-22 after the first, 61-46 at the half and never looked back. In fact, it was the third-largest halftime deficit Boston had found themselves in all season long. The Heat were able to pile up the points by having a near-team record night from deep. The Heat shot 19/35 from three, one shy of the team’s record of 20.

Vincent shot 6/9, Robinson 5/7 and Martin 4/7 from three. Meanwhile, Boston was just 11/42 (26.2%).

Neither team shot great from three in Game 2, but Miami also held a strong advantage from three-point land in Game 1 (16/31 vs 10/29).

No Celtic had a good showing in Game 3, with Tatum leading with only 14 points. Starters were sent to the bench for both teams in the fourth with the comeback out of reach.

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Boston has found the worst time to go into a slump. They’re 0-3 in the series and ATS, while also being 2-5 SU/ATS going back into the last series.

Even if they can win on Tuesday, it would take a historical upset to see them advance to the finals. Teams down 0-3 in a series are 0-150 in NBA history.

A total of 216 may look like a low number for Game 4 considering all three previous games have gone over the total and twice easily so. The previous three totals were 212, 214.5 and 214, with final scores totaling 239, 216 and 230 points.

The Heat seem to have Boston’s number and going back into the regular season they’ve now won five of the past six games between the teams.

At home, in a close-out opportunity against a Celtics team that offered little pushback in Game 3, I’m backing a Heat win. For a little more juice it makes sense to bet the moneyline and not worry about winning by an extra point.

Pick: Heat moneyline (-120)

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Here are a few Boston vs Miami props to include in your Game 4 same-game parlay (SGP). I like Miami to win straight up as a single play, but for a same-game parlay if you want to get a little more creative and play it safe you can back them on the alternate spread. DraftKings will let you take them as an underdog, allowing you to just need the Heat to not get blown out.

Let’s start this SGP with Miami at +8.5, and add in some player prop legs to round it out.

I’m going with these three legs below at +135 odds but if you want to add to it, you could consider Vincent to hit 1+ three-pointers at -1200 or 2+ three-pointers at -260. He’s shot 6/9, 1/4 and 3/5 in this series from deep.

There are currently no props listed for Robinson but he’s finished with 22 points and 5/7 three-pointers in Game 3 and 15 points with 3/6 shooting from deep in Game 2.

If you assume Boston will at least go down swinging, then Tatum will surely have his say on the stat sheet. Sure he only had 14 points in Game 3, but he also only played 33 minutes. In Games 1 and 2 he had 30 and 34 points and is always a threat to hit that 30-point mark. He could be a good SGP piece in your Celtics vs Heat props at 25+ points and -320 odds.

• Heat +8.5
• Max Strus 2+ three-pointers
• Caleb Martin over 9.5 points
• Total SGP odds: +135

Strus has been a consistent three-point threat all postseason. Against the Celtics, he’s shot 3/5, 2/5 and 2/8 from deep in Games 1, 2 and 3 respectively.

In the Conference Semifinals against the Knicks, he shot multiple three-pointers in five of six games. He actually shot three threes twice and four twice in that series.

In overall postseason play, he’s shot at least two three-pointers in 10/14 games. That makes Strus to shoot 2+ threes in Game 4 at -340 a great addition to this SGP.

DraftKings is offering Martin to go over or under a point total of 9.5 in their SGP Celtics vs Heat props. In this series alone he’s finished with 18, 25 and 15 points. Against the Knicks he had 8, 11, 10, 3, 22 and 9. Versus the Bucks he had 2, 12, 12, 15 and 15.

That means he’s exceeded 9.5 points in 10/14 playoff games. I’ll take the over at -220 in my Celtics vs Heat same-game parlay.

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