Celtics vs. Heat prop bets, Game 4: Fade Jaylen Brown in Miami

The No. 8 seed Miami Heat are one win away from the NBA Finals.

The pregame narrative: Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics spit the bit in a must-win Game 3 on Sunday, and we don’t expect things to get much better tonight. We’re taking the under on Brown’s point prop and are also backing Gabe Vincent after a career night.

Here are our Celtics vs. Heat prop bets for Game 4 on May 23.

NBA odds as of 10:29 a.m. on 05/23/2023.

Celtics vs. Heat prop bets

Best Bet: Brown under 23.5 points (-121)

Brown’s postseason regression has continued to the point where it can’t be ignored.

The 26-year-old swingman averaged 26.7 points per game against the Atlanta Hawks in the opening round, scoring 30-plus points three times. Brown had a less explosive but still efficient series against the Philadelphia 76ers, averaging 22.9 PPG on 54.1% shooting, never scoring more than 25 points.

But things have come undone against the Heat. Brown is averaging a disasterous 16.7 PPG across three games this series. He’s fallen under this total in each contest and is a combined 2-for-20 from beyond the arc. That comes after shooting a blistering 47.1% from deep in the prior 13 playoff games.

Miami owns the best home defensive rating in the playoffs (102.8) and has held Boston to a collective 29.2% from 3-point range in this series. Erik Spoelstra’s team is playing fantastic defence and we don’t expect that to change with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.

Brown is slumping and this isn’t the game or opponent to get a free pass against. Speaking of free passes, Brown has barely gotten to the free-throw line this series. He has just four attempts in three games and has only cashed in on two of those.

Key stat: Brown has fallen under this total in four of his last five games.

Quick picks

Vincent over 11.5 points (-121): Vincent poured in a career-high 29 points in Game 3 on 66.7% shooting from the field (6-for-9 from deep). Is that repeatable? Of course not, but we’re happy to back him at a much, much lower point total on Tuesday.

Vincent has seen a heavy increase in usage this series and is playing 37.0 minutes per night, up from 29.4 MPG in the prior 13 playoff games. He’s making the most of it and owns an impressive 60.7/55.6/100.0 shooting split against the Celtics.

With the veteran Kyle Lowry taking a step back, it makes sense for Vincent to continue receiving opportunities — and cashing in on them.

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