Celtics vs. Raptors prediction, odds, line, spread: 2023 NBA picks, Jan. 21 best bets from proven model
The Toronto Raptors host the NBA's best team on early Saturday evening. The Raptors take on the Boston Celtics in an Eastern Conference battle, and Toronto is 20-26 overall and 14-11 at home this season. After eight straight wins, Boston is 34-12 overall to sit atop the league, and the Celtics are 16-7 away from home in 2022-23. Jayson Tatum (wrist) and Danilo Gallinari (knee) are out for Boston. Dalano Banton (hip) is questionable for Toronto, with Otto Porter Jr. (foot) ruled out.
Boston is listed as a 1-point road favorite for this 5 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 225.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Raptors odds. Before making any Raptors vs. Celtics picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 45-20 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Raptors and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Raptors vs. Celtics:
- Celtics vs. Raptors spread: Celtics -1
- Celtics vs. Raptors over/under: 225.5 points
- Celtics vs. Raptors money line: Celtics -125, Raptors +105
- BOs: The Celtics are 13-10 against the spread in road games
- Toronto: The Raptors are 13-12 against the spread in home games
- Celtics vs. Raptors picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Celtics can cover
Boston is elite on both ends of the floor on the way to the NBA's best record and net rating (+6.6). The Celtics are scoring more than 1.17 points per possession, No. 2 in the NBA, and Boston is in the top five in shooting efficiency. Boston is making 57.1% of 2-point shots, 37% of 3-point shots and 83% of free throw attempts, with the Celtics generating more than twice as many assists (26.8 per game) as turnovers (13.4 per game).
On defense, the Celtics are yielding fewer than 1.11 points per possession and leading the NBA with a 74.6% defensive rebound rate. Opponents are producing only 13.2 second-chance points, 22.7 assists, and 20.8 free throw attempts per game against Boston, and the Celtics are blocking 5.4 shots per game. Toronto is in the bottom three in field goal percentage, 2-point percentage and 3-point percentage, with Boston also posting the NBA's best road record this season.
Why the Raptors can cover
Toronto has elite characteristics on both sides of the floor. The Raptors lead the NBA in turnover rate on offense, giving the ball away on only 12.1% of possessions. Toronto is also in the top five in both offensive rebound rate (31.2%) and second-chance points (16.7 per game). The Raptors push the ball in transition, averaging 17.8 fast break points per game, and Toronto is in the top five in free throw creation, averaging almost 26 attempts per game.
Boston is in the bottom five of the league in turnover creation and steals on defense. On the other end, Toronto is No. 1 in the league in steals, averaging 9.3 per game, and the Raptors are No. 2 with 16.8 turnovers created per game. Toronto is in the top five in points allowed in the paint (48.0 per game), and the Raptors are facing a Celtics offense that is in the bottom tier in both free throw attempts (22.7 per game) and offensive rebound rate (25.4%).
How to make Raptors vs. Celtics picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 228 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
