Bucks vs. Raptors prediction, odds, line, spread: 2023 NBA picks, Jan. 17 best bets from proven model
Fiserv Forum will host an Eastern Conference showdown on Tuesday evening. The Milwaukee Bucks welcome the Toronto Raptors to town for a spotlight matchup in prime time. Toronto is 20-24 this season, though the Raptors have won four of the last five games. Milwaukee is 28-16 overall and 17-5 in home games. Both teams are on the second night of back-to-back sets, leaving uncertainty with the player availability situation on each side, though Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) will be the biggest name to monitor.
Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as the 4.5-point home favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 224 in the latest Raptors vs. Bucks odds. Before making any Bucks vs. Raptors picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 45-20 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Raptors and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Raptors vs. Bucks:
- Raptors vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -4.5
- Raptors vs. Bucks over/under: 224 points
- Raptors vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -190, Raptors +158
- TOR: The Raptors are 9-10 against the spread in road games
- MIL: The Bucks are 15-7 against the spread in home games
- Raptors vs. Bucks picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Raptors can cover
Toronto's defense is swarming this season, giving up only 1.13 points per possession. The Raptors lead the NBA in turnover creation, averaging 17.0 takeaways per game, and the Bucks are in the bottom third of the league with a 15.1% turnover rate on offense. Toronto also leads the league with 9.4 steals per game and the Raptors produce 5.2 blocked shots per contest. Opponents average 48.0 points in the paint per game against Toronto, No. 6 in the NBA, and the Raptors can also win on the margins on offense.
Toronto leads the league in turnover avoidance with only 11.9 per game, and the Raptors are in the top three in second-chance points (16.9 per game) and fast break points (17.8 per game). The Raptors are in the top five in free throw creation (25.9 attempts per game) and offensive rebound rate (31.1%), with the Bucks entering Tuesday as the NBA's worst team in creating turnovers, generating only 12.3 takeaways per game on defense.
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee's defense is truly excellent. The Bucks are giving up 109.8 points per 100 possessions this season No. 3 in the NBA, and no team allows fewer free throw attempts (20.6 per game) than Milwaukee. Opponents are shooting only 45.4% from the field against the Bucks this season, and Milwaukee is in the top eight of the league in 2-point defense and 3-point defense. The Bucks are elite on the defensive glass, securing 74.2% of available rebounds and allowing only 13.3 second-chance points per game.
Milwaukee also blocks 5.1 shots per game, a top-10 figure, and the Bucks create extra opportunities with size and physicality on offense. Milwaukee is in the top 10 of the NBA in offensive rebound rate, grabbing 29.9% of missed shots, and the Bucks produce 15.0 second-chance points per game.
How to make Raptors vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 230 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
