CFP National Championship predictions: J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr.’s odds to win Offensive MVP

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The National Championship Offensive MVP market has been released, with J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. boasting the best odds for tonight’s Michigan vs. Washington game.

After a 221-yard, three-touchdown performance against Alabama in the CFP semifinals, McCarthy has top odds to win Offensive MVP. However, his recent stat lines make it a bit shocking that he’s the MVP odds leader.

The Illinois native failed to surpass 200 yards in the four games leading up to the College Football Playoff, and he threw only one touchdown in that span. McCarthy averages 203 passing yards, 12 rushing yards, and just under two total touchdowns per game.

If J.J.’s stat line is on par with his season averages, it’s hard to imagine him earning the Offensive MVP award. Especially considering Washington allows 134 rushing yards per game, Big Blue should have no problem moving the sticks on the ground.

Statistically, the Huskies are the worst passing defense Michigan will face this season. If Jim Harbaugh opts to get risky and air it out, McCarthy could have a monster outing. However, running the offense through Blake Corum is the far safer option.

The Heisman Trophy typically favors QBs, and the same is true for the National Championship Offensive MVP award. In the CFP era, six of the nine Offensive MVP recipients have been passers, and DeVonta Smith is the only non-QB to win it in the past seven seasons.

If Washington’s defensive trends hold and Michigan moves the ball with ease, the Huskies will need a career day from Penix. While it’s true that Washington is statistically the worst defense Big Blue will meet, the Huskie’s offense is also the best that Michigan will see.

The Wolverine’s toughest QB matchups have been Penn State’s Drew Allar, Ohio State’s Kyle McCord, and Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, and none hold a candle to Penix’s passing prowess. Michael’s 4,648 yards were the most in college football, and he put on a clinic vs. Texas in the CFP semifinals.

Penix completed 76% of his passes for 430 yards, two touchdowns, and ran for 31 yards. The former Indiana Hoosier’s deep-ball accuracy was off the charts, hitting 7/11 attempts that traveled 15+ yards.

It’s unlikely Penix has a similar showing in the National Championship, but a Washington victory would undoubtedly be thanks to the Heisman runner-up.

Blake Corum has the shortest Offensive MVP odds of any non-QB and is well-positioned to hoist the trophy. Corum has been solid for Big Blue all year but has broken 100 rushing yards in only two games.

The senior is Harbaugh’s go-to guy in the red zone, as he leads the nation in rushing touchdowns and has found the end zone in every game this season. Corum also had at least two touchdowns in the previous six games.

With Corum expected to play a vital role in the Wolverine’s offensive game plan, he could break the mold and beat out a QB for Offensive MVP.

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