Michigan vs. Washington: College Football Playoff national championship picks and predictions

Two undefeated teams, each looking for its first national championship since the 1990s will face off Monday night in Houston in the College Football Playoff title game.

No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Washington are the last two teams standing after a historically wild season, highlighted by the closest semifinal games in the history of the CFP.

The Wolverines enter as 4.5-point favorites after beating No. 4 Alabama in overtime in the Rose Bowl last week. The Huskies held off No. 3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl to punch their ticket after starting that semifinal game as a 4-point underdog.

Do the Huskies have one more “upset” in them or will Michigan cap off the year as the team many expected to win it all?

FrontPageBets takes a look at the CFP finale.

CFP national championship predictions: Michigan moneyline, Washington +4.5 & Under 56.5

Against Alabama, the key for Michigan was to run the ball. Which they did effectively, especially in overtime – two plays, two runs, resulting in a Blake Corum touchdown.

But against Washington, the Wolverines should be able to air it out a little bit and take advantage of the Huskies’ 120th-ranked passing defense, which is giving up 267 yards per game.

And Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy has the ability to do that, especially with Roman Wilson at receiver. McCarthy threw for 221 and three touchdowns against Alabama’s vaunted defense with Wilson catching four passes for 73 yards and the game-tying score late in the fourth quarter.

If Michigan can get up early with the pass, then it can lean on its running game to control the clock and grind out a win.

Which will also help out its defense, as Michigan will attempt to slow Washington way down.

Of course, the Wolverines, who lead the country in total defense, giving up 243.1 yards and 10.21 points per game, won’t be able to totally shut down the Huskies and Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr.

But they won’t need to. The Wolverines just can’t give up multiple big plays to a quarterback who makes his living doing so.

Penix threw for over 400 yards and two touchdowns in Washington’s Sugar Bowl semifinal win. For the season, Penix has 4,641 yards through the air, becoming the first player since Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes to surpass 4,500 passing yards in back-to-back seasons. Mahomes did it in 2015 and 2016 for the Red Raiders.

Penix also averages more than 13 yards per completion, which is in the top 15 of all FBS quarterbacks. Against Texas, he completed six passes of at least 20 yards.

Penix’s top target is Rome Odunze, who set a school record for receiving yards this season with 1,553, which is second-best in the nation. Odunze’s 13 receiving touchdowns are tied for sixth in all of FBS.

And while Washington is giving up an average of 24.14 points per game, its offense is putting up an average of 37.6 points per game, which is 10th in the nation.

This team is built to score. And Michigan wants to avoid a shootout against a team that is primed for a boat race.

Which brings us to the key matchup: Michigan’s defensive from vs. Washington’s offensive line.

Protecting Penix will be the key for the Huskies, who have one of the most consistent pass-blocking offensive lines in the country, only allowing 11 sacks all season.

Michigan’s defense sacked Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe six times in the Rose Bowl semifinal; and the Wolverines have racked up 36 sacks on the year, which is tied for 16th-best in the nation. That’s almost three per game.

Here is where the game will be won – or lost.

If Michigan can pressure Penix and keep him from taking his shots, the Wolverines win. If it can’t, hold on to your seats.

Michigan’s defense shows up and limits Penix enough for the Wolverines to slow the game down and win it late.

Just don’t leave anytime for Penix to work his magic.

• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m., Monday; NRG Stadium, Houston
• TV: ESPN
• The pick: Michigan, 28-22

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