Champions League Corner Picks, best bets odds: AC Milan vs. Tottenham will have goals, Bayern Munich top PSG
After a 3.5-month absence, the Champions League returns to action this week on Paramount+. While I'm always excited about the Champions League knockout rounds, there's an added mystery to this year's tournament. It's not just the long lay-off due to the World Cup; it's that some of the big-name clubs we're used to seeing make this part of the tournament aren't having the best years at home.
Tottenham, Chelsea and Liverpool are all outside the top four in the Premier League. AC Milan and Inter have little hope of winning Serie A and instead will have to fight to maintain a top-four finish for themselves. Real Madrid are Real Madrid, but a La Liga title also looks out of reach for them this year.
When you combine the lack of a clearly elite team with the number of teams who will prioritize the Champions League over their domestic leagues, things could get wild. Toss in a wild card like Napoli, and this could be one of the more surprising Champions League tournaments in recent memory.
The excitement starts Tuesday, and Corner Picks has a pick for each of this week's matches. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
PSG vs. Bayern Munich
Of the eight quarterfinal matchups, this is your headliner. You have the first-place team in France, packed with the star power of Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar, going against the German powerhouse and six-time Champions League/European Cup winner Bayern Munich. Unfortunately, I'm unsure how much of PSG's star power will be available for this match.
Over the weekend, we took Monaco against PSG because PSG were without Messi and Mbappe. While both will be in the team Tuesday, we do not know if either will start or how long they'll be available to play, if at all. Those injuries are why PSG have lost two straight, while Bayern haven't lost since Sept. 17. It won't be easy to go to Les Parc de Princes and get the win, but I expect that's just what Bayern will do. The Pick: Bayern Munich (+150)
Featured Game| Paris vs. Bayern Munchen
AC Milan vs. Tottenham Hotspur
It's nearly impossible to figure these teams out right now. One minute Tottenham are beating Manchester City 1-0, the next they're blowing an early 1-0 lead against Leicester and losing 4-1. Then there's AC Milan, who have been horrific since returning from the World Cup break, but finally managed to pick up a win over the weekend against Torino.
While I believe there's some value on Milan to win, there isn't enough worth betting. From what I can tell, the better value is on the total because the primary reason these teams have struggled lately is defending. Milan have struggled to stop strong sides, and Tottenham's looked shaky against everybody (the 1-0 win over City was a touch "lucky"). Don't be surprised to see blown assignments and players left with too much space in the box in this match. The Pick: Over 2.5 (+110)
Featured Game| AC Milan vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Borussia Dortmund vs. Chelsea
Chelsea spent eleventy billion dollars in January (rough estimate), and it turns out dollars spent doesn't directly correlate with points earned after all. Since Jan. 1, when the window opened, Chelsea have won only one of its eight matches across all competitions. It's drawn its last three and scored only four goals in those eight matches.
Meanwhile, Dortmund have won six straight, so they're the obvious play, right? They're playing well and at home against a struggling Chelsea. But that's precisely why I'm zagging. I'm somewhat weary of Bundesliga teams that aren't Bayern Munich in the Champions League because they never seem strong enough defensively. This isn't to say Dortmund can't win this match (they very much can), but there's been a little too much of an overreaction to Chelsea's struggles, and while the results aren't there, Chelsea have looked better lately. There's a decent chance this is the match things click. The Pick: Chelsea (+195)
Featured Game| Borussia Dortmund vs. Chelsea
Club Brugge vs. Benfica
There's little question about who the underdog remaining in the competition is. Not only is Club Brugge the only club from outside Europe's top six leagues remaining in the tournament, but they're not even in first place in Belgium's Jupiler Pro League. They're in fourth, 20 points behind Genk. They played well in their group, picking up four points against Atlético Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen (as well as a 4-0 win over Porto) to earn this spot.
But I fully expect this is as far as Brugge will get. Benfica are atop Portugal's domestic league and have lost only one match all season: a 3-0 loss to Braga on Dec. 30. Benfica won their Champions League group, which included PSG and Juventus. They're a class above Brugge, and the scoreline should reflect that. The Pick: Benfica (-116)
