Chiefs vs Jets odds, picks, predictions
One of the biggest spreads of Week 4′s NFL slate is unsurprisingly the Kansas City Chiefs being favored by 8.5 points over the New York Jets on BetMGM.
Even though New York is the home team with an elite defense, their offense is one of the NFL’s worst with incompetent quarterback play being the biggest culprit.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes who may be the greatest to ever play the sport. 8.5 points isn’t enough in a game I see being a blowout and a tough game for Jets fans.
Chiefs vs Jets prediction: Analysis
(8:20 p.m. EST, Thursday, NBC)
Although these teams’ records are only separated by one game, there’s arguably no game on the Week 4 slate that feels like it has two teams heading in complete opposite directions.
The Chiefs offense looked miserable in Week 1 without Travis Kelce and looked like a continuing work in progress in Week 2. But against a miserable Bears defense in Week 3, the Chiefs offense looked like the one of old by dropping 41 points in three quarters in a game that looked like the easiest of Mahomes’ career.
Meanwhile, New York ranks last in the NFL in points per game entering Week 4 at just 14 points per game. While the argument could be made the Jets have faced three straight elite defenses, the bottom line is Zach Wilson is averaging a career low in yards per attempt, completion percentage, and has four interceptions already.
Although the Chiefs are best known for having a dynamic high powered offense, their defense has carried them this year while the offense has been working to figure it out. Chris Jones is as impactful as ever and they’ve gotten fantastic play from their linebackers and defensive line flanking Jones.
In fact, their defense ranks better on the year in opposing points per game than many of the talked about elite defenses in the NFL including the 49ers, Eagles, Patriots, and even the Jets themselves.
While the Jets defense is still made up of talented players in every part of the unit, them being just 12th in opposing points per game, 20th in yards per game, and and 13th in takeaways per game isn’t good enough for what they need.
If Aaron Rodgers was still healthy and the offense was getting more out of Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall, perhaps they could be fine with a fine but not exemplary defense. But with an offense that ranks second to last in yards per play, New York needs their defense to be a difference making and turnover creating unit every week.
Chiefs vs Jets prediction: Pick
Chiefs to cover the -8.5 point spread set by BetMGM (-110)
The Jets defense does give New York a chance to keep this game within a nine point deficit.
Despite them not having the greatest statistics as mentioned above, credit is due for them carrying New York to their Week 1 win and giving Zach Wilson more than enough chances in Week 3 to lead them to a win by holding New England to 15 points.
But we saw what happened in Week 2 when the Jets faced the Cowboys. Dallas tallied 382 yards, got 14 more first downs, and converted 9/18 third downs.
New York’s defense was also on the field for 42 minutes that game. The Jets are 0-3 in the time of possession battle this season, which will eventually start to tire out the defense.
On the other side, the Chiefs offense just dropped 41 points in three quarters in one of the biggest statement victories of the year. Mahomes and Andy Reid are a lethal tandem when they have momentum on their side, and they’re now 2-1 and have lots of it.
Although the game is in New York, I don’t see that making much of an impact. Mahomes is 33-9 in his career on the road and above. 500% against the spread in his career.
While his record against the spread was far better in his first few seasons than in recent year, I don’t see that being an issue here either.
If Wilson is unable to play well against what may be the best defense Mahomes has had during his Chiefs tenure, fans could witness yet another lopsided primetime game.
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