Clippers vs. Heat picks and props Feb. 4: Bet on Harden, Clippers to excel in Miami

A lengthy road trip for the Los Angeles Clippers rolls on tonight in South Beach.

The pregame narrative: Playing in Game 6 of a seven-game road swing, the Clippers face the Miami Heat on Sunday at the Kaseya Center. Miami's Bam Adebayo should have a solid game on the glass, but the Clippers are worth backing against the spread.

NBA oddsas of 10:30 a.m. on 02/04/2024.

Clippers vs. Heat picks

Best Bet: Adebayo over 10.5 rebounds (-132)

Adebayo's recent production on the glass makes this look like a smash play. He has 11-plus boards in six of his past seven games, which includes a 14-rebound night on Friday.

The trend extends back further than that, as Adebayo has hit this over in 15 of his past 21 games since late December. He's averaging 11.6 rebounds in that span.

Now in his seventh season, Adebayo is also posting the best rebounding numbers of his career (10.6/game). That's an important part of the reason he earned an all-star bid.

The Los Angeles Clippers allow the 11th-fewest rebounds to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros. With the way things are going for Adebayo right now, that's not a daunting enough stat to concern me.

Also, it helps to know that L.A.'s top rebounder, Ivica Zubac, is merely questionable for tonight due to a calf strain. Zubac hasn't played since Jan. 12 and could be limited even if he does suit up.

Then again, Adebayo had no problem going at Zubac when these teams met on New Year's Day. In that matchup, Miami's centre had 21 points and 15 rebounds.

Key stat: Since the 2020-21 season, Adebayo has averaged 12.3 rebounds in seven games against the Clippers.

Quick pick

Clippers -4.5 (-105): A long road trip hasn't slowed the Clippers' momentum, as the No. 3 team in the Western Conference is 4-1 since its last home game on Jan. 23.

Overall, L.A. is 15-3 since Boxing Day. And all 15 of those wins have come by five-plus points.

Miami is 2-7 in its past nine games, with questionable losses against the Raptors, Hawks and Grizzlies in that span. The Heat are also just 9-15 ATS at home this year, per Team Rankings.

Oh, and the Clippers have already dominated the Heat once this year, winning by 17 points when these teams matched up last month at Crypto.com Arena.

James Harden over 2.5 threes (+110): Miami is a good team to target for 3-pointer props, as the Heat allow the seventh-most makes and attempts per game, according to NBA.com.

With that in mind, Harden is as good of a pick as any to cash three triples at plus money. In his past 22 games, Harden has cleared this line 11 times while averaging 2.9 makes from beyond the arc.

When he last faced the Heat, Harden went 3-for-5 from deep. And he's hit this over in four of five games against Miami since the start of the 2020-21 campaign.