Clippers vs Rockets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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06 March 2024

Clippers vs Rockets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Clippers haven't been able to recapture the magic of their 26-5 run, and things aren't going to get an easier in H-Town tonight. With the Rockets' defense always locked in, our NBA picks expect a quiet night for the Clips.

Things have cooled off a bit for the Los Angeles Clippers following a surge that saw them rise to the upper echelon of the Western Conference standings, and it has cost NBA bettors.

The Clippers are just 5-6 straight up and have covered the spread in just three of their last 11 games overall. But is a matchup with the Houston Rockets what they need to get right?

L.A. has won nine consecutive meetings against the Rockets and the NBA odds like the chances of it being a perfect 10 as the Clips are listed as 6.5-point road favorites.

But can a refueled Houston team snap this skid? I break down this Western Conference matchup and bring you the best bet in my free NBA picks for the Clippers vs. Rockets.

Clippers vs Rockets odds

Clippers vs Rockets predictions

It felt like the Los Angeles Clippers reaffirmed their contender status earlier this season thanks in large part because everyone has been healthy. That allowed Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden to build some chemistry which fueled a ridiculous 26-5 run through basically December and January.

But the Clippers lost some steam just before the All-Star break and it has carried over after. During that 26-5 run the Clippers lead the NBA in both offensive rating and effective field goal percentage. But in the last 11 games they rank 21st and 19th in those categories. And tonight, they’ll face off against a Houston Rockets team that really gets after it defensively.

The Rockets were also not playing well coming in and out of the break, but they have built some momentum lately. Houston enters tonight’s matchup off back-to-back wins and has covered three straight.

Additionally, no matter the problem Houston has faced, the effort on the defensive end of the floor hasn’t waned this season. The Rockets rank seventh in the NBA in defensive rating and fifth in opponent eFG%. They can also limit the Clippers damage from the perimeter, ranking third in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and 10th in opponent 3-pointers made per game.

The Rockets have also been a much better team at home, going 21-10 straight up at the Toyota Center this season. All this to say, I think Houston can do an effective job of limiting L.A.’s offense tonight.

The Clippers team total is sitting at 114.5, but they're averaging 110 points over the last 11 games and have only topped tonight's team total twice — at Golden State and vs. Washington.

The Rockets have held opponents to 112 points or fewer in five of their last six games and rank sixth in points allowed on their home court at just 109.1. I’m betting Houston makes getting buckets tough for Los Angeles once again.

My best bet: Clippers team total Under 114.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Clippers vs Rockets same-game parlay

Clippers team total Under 114.5

James Harden Under 8.5 assists

Terance Mann Over 6.5 points

Another thing that makes the Rockets' defense so effective, (and will help them prevent the Clippers from getting buckets) is they do a great job of disrupting passing lanes. As a result, they're fourth in opponent assists per game.

That has me looking at Harden, who is averaging just 7.2 assists per game over this 11-game stretch compared to his season average of 8.3. His assists total is sitting at 8.5 tonight, a number he's failed to eclipse in nine of his last 11 games.

It’s not a world of Unders for the Clippers tonight as I like Terance Mann to go Over his meager points total of 6.5. Mann should get the opportunity to put a few more shots up with Russell Westbrook sidelined for the next little bit. He’s averaging 11.5 points over his last eight games and has topped this number six times during that period.

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Clippers vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis

The Rockets opened this matchup as 6.5-point home underdogs but some 7.0s are starting to pop up on the board as of early Wednesday afternoon.

These two Western Conference foes met much earlier in the season where the Clippers closed as 7.5-point home favorites. L.A. won that matchup 106-100 — failing to cover the spread — but extending the winning streak against Houston to nine games. However, you can make the case that was prior to the Clippers being, well, good.

Considering the current form of both teams, I think there is a little value in the Rockets as home underdogs — but not enough for me to make a play on the side.

When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 224.5 and the Under has been hit early, with the number current at 223. And I’d have to agree with the early money.

Even at the new number, this is still five points higher than the closing total from that November matchup. A matchup which easily stayed Under. Both teams have been solid Under bets this season with L.A. going 25-35 O/U and Houston at 26-34-1 O/U.

I already like the Clippers to stay below their team total, so I would lean toward the full game Under as well.