Rockets vs Thunder Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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27 February 2024

Rockets vs Thunder Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

With a double-digit spread separating the Rockets and Thunder tonight in the NBA odds, our NBA betting picks pivot to a player prop that presents tremendous value. Find out who we are looking to fade and why below!

Those waiting to see if the bubble will burst for the Oklahoma City Thunder might be left hanging for a while.

The Thunder, led by NBA MVP odds contender Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, head into tonight’s matchup with the Houston Rockets winners of five in a row straight up and against the spread and tied for first place in the Western Conference.

With the latest win coming against this very same Rockets team. OKC won Sunday’s matchup in Houston in convincing fashion covering the 6.5-point spread. This time around the NBA odds have the Thunder as big double-digit favorites.

Can Oklahoma City extend its win and cover streak to six, or will Houston be a problem the second time around? I break down this Western Conference matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Rockets vs. Thunder.

Rockets vs Thunder odds

Rockets vs Thunder predictions

The Oklahoma City Thunder have picked up right where they left off before the All-Star break. They enter tonight’s matchup with the Houston Rockets winners of five in a row, which includes a 123-110 win as 6.5-point road favorites against this same Rockets team last time out. OKC’s latest winning streak has them tied for first place in the Western Conference.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have come back down to earth after a fast start to the season. Houston has dropped seven of its last nine contests thanks to a sputtering offense that ranks 24th in offensive rating and 27th in effective field goal percentage. Even a spot in the play-in looks like a long shot as the Rockets sit 4.5 games behind the 10th-place Golden State Warriors.

Simply put, the Thunder are where the Rockets want to be and what makes this sustainable for the Thunder is that they have so few glaring weaknesses.

Thanks to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looking like the MVP, and the development of guys like Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, the Thunder rank third in offensive rating this season. Another reason OKC is dangerous is because they also get after it on defense. The Thunder are long, athletic, and have a high motor as a team at that end of the floor.

As a result, OKC ranks fourth in both defensive rating and opponent effective field goal percentage, they are third in steals, and thanks in large part to Holmgren they lead the NBA in blocks.

So, yeah. It’s a tough matchup for the Rockets who are having trouble finding consistency on offense and the matchup with Holmgren makes it even harder for Alperen Sengun. The 21-year-old center’s development has been a big part of the Rockets’ resurgence, but like I said, tonight is a tough matchup.

Sengun is averaging 21 points per game on 53.9% shooting for the season, but he’s cooled off a bit and seen a bit of a dip in production of late. The Houston big is putting up 16.9 points per game on 51.2% shooting over his last 10 games. He was held to 6-12 shooting for 19 points in Sunday’s matchup against the Thunder and has been held to 19 points or fewer nine times over his last 13 games.

Holmgren will make Sengun’s night an unpleasant one once again and I’m betting the Under on his 19.5-point total.

My best bet: Alperen Sengun Under 19.5 points (~~-110~~ +121 at BetMGM)

Rockets vs Thunder same-game parlay

Alperen Sengun Under 19.5 pointsAlperen Sengun Over 9.5 rebounds

Fred VanVleet Over 6.5 assists

While Sengun might have a tough night when it comes to getting buckets, I do think he’ll have a chance to be effective cleaning the glass. Rebounding is one of the few areas the Thunder are lacking, as the team ranks next-to-last in the NBA when it comes to rebounding rate.

Sengun averages 9.2 rebounds per game this season and hauled down 12 boards in the meeting on Sunday. Let’s add the Over 9.5 on his rebounds prop for this same-game parlay.

Let’s round this SGP out by tailing my co-worker Jon Metler. Go read his NBA props article. But in today’s piece he like Fred VanVleet to go Over 6.5 assists. VanVleet averages 8.0 assists per game and Covers Prop Projections has him at 7.2 for this matchup.

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Rockets vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis

The Thunder opened this Western Conference clash as 10-point home favorites and that’s where the line remains as of Tuesday afternoon. With the line for Sunday’s matchup in Houston closing at OKC -6.5 and the Thunder covering with relative ease, this line makes sense.

It doesn’t help the Rockets that they have been a much worse team on the road this season. Houston has just five road wins all season long and is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games overall. The Rockets hang their hats on a defense that ranks eighth in the NBA. The Thunder are just better. And the offenses aren’t even in the same ballpark. I would either lay with the favorites or stay away.

The total also hasn’t seen much action, as it still sits at the opening number of 234.5. Sunday’s matchup closed at 233 with the game finishing on that number exactly.

The Thunder are rolling on offense putting up 130.6 points per game over their last five games and hitting at least 123 in each of their last seven wins. The Rockets' struggles on offense will keep me away from the full-game total but I don’t hate the Thunder to go Over their team total of 122.5.