College Basketball Best Bets, Feb. 27: Houston vs Cincinnati, Virginia Tech vs Syracuse

Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bet for the Tuesday’s slate, featuring Houston vs Cincinnati, plus Virginia Tech at Syracuse.

Cincinnati at Houston (-13.5): O/U 132.5

We have a slugfest on the menu between the Houston Cougars and Cincinnati in the Big 12. Houston has won five straight games, while Cincinnati’s dropped two consecutive games and four of the past five.

Houston’s defense is rated No. 1 overall and at home, while Cincy owns the No. 1 defense in road games. The first battle was a grind. I expect this meeting to be the same.

When these two teams met at Cincy earlier in the season, the Bearcats led 32-29 at halftime and were up by as much as 7 (38-31) but lost 67-62. Cincy went 6-of-20 from three (30%) and went 13-of-31 from two (41.9%).

The Bearcats hit 26.2% of their triples on the road (352nd) and the Cougars limit opponents to 28.5% from deep at home (31st). Houston has the second-best two-point defense (38.3%) and forces the second-most tunrovers (28.8%), so they check every box.

I played the Bearcats First Half Team Total Under 27.5 at -115 odds and would go down to 26.5 for 1.5 units.

Pick: Cincinnati 1H Team Total Under 27.5 (1.5u)

Virginia Tech at Syracuse (-1.5): O/U 153.5

Syracuse celebrated Jim Boeheim in their previous game, a home win over Notre Dame. A letdown game here is obvious for the Orange. People might bring up senior day as a factor in backing Cuse, but the Orange plays eight sophomores and one junior, so this senior day isn’t important.

However, V-Tech and Syracuse are in desperate need of wins to make the NCAA Tournament. A loss for either team keeps them outside the bubble. Comparing resumes, V-Tech is closer to an NCAA at-large bid than Syracuse and the Orange are 2-7 versus teams in the top 50 (V-Tech is 47th).

Despite V-Tech being 1-8 on the road this year, there are a few weaknesses that the Hokies can exploit. Syracuse is last in the ACC when it comes to offensive (21.9%) and defensive rebounding percentage (31.7%), plus three-point (39.5%), and two-point defense (54.3%).

In Syracuse’s last two games, NC State and Notre Dame combined to go 39-of-70 from two (55.7%), 19-of-38 from three (50%), and 33-of-41 from the free-throw line (80.4%).

The Orange held halftime leads of 15 and 20 points against NC State and Notre Dame but only ended up winning by three and four points. Syracuse allowed 43 and 56 points in those second halves.

Give me Virginia Tech +1.5 at -110 odds down to the ML. The Orange are 12-3 at home, so this is an unpopular play, but I think the Hokies get the win.

Pick: Virginia Tech +1.5 (1u)

Season Record: 50-40 (55.5%) +4.5 units

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