College Basketball Best Bets, March 13: Penn State vs Michigan, Maryland vs Rutgers
Vaughn Dalzell shares his favorite Big Ten and A-10 tournament bets for the slate.
Fordham vs VCU (-8.5): O/U 133.5
Fordham had itself a grind versus Davidson that extended into OT for a win after trailing by 13 in the second half.
VCU enters on a three-game losing streak where they played two of the top three seeds in the conference and the No. 6 seed. Despite that, VCU played good basketball but came out on the losing end.
In the only meeting between the two, VCU won 75-60 at Fordham, holding Fordham to four points over the first 10 minutes of the second half. Forham turned the ball over 15 times and attempted seven free throws.
Since March started, Fordham is 202nd overall with a 1-4 record and the 330th-ranked offense, plus bottom 15 averages for two-point range (40.8%) and effective field goal percentage (39.9%). VCU is top 92nd overall and 70th in three-point shooting (40.9%) and 29th for defensive rebounding (29%) over that span.
Fordham has lost seven straight meetings to VCU and lost six by double-digits. I played VCU -8.5 at -110 odds and would go out to -9.5.
Pick: VCU -8.5 (1u)
Michigan vs Penn State (-6.5): O/U 150.5
Penn State needed a win over Maryland at home to get the higher seed and face Michigan in the first round and they did just that, while looking determined I might add.
Since Feb. 21, Penn State has been ranked 44th in the nation compared to Michigan at 218th, per Barttorvik. The Nittany Lions own a top-50 offense in that span, while the Wolverines’ defense ranks 269th.
These teams met Jan. 7 on a neutral court in Philadelphia and Penn State won 79-73. Michigan held a 14-point lead at one point, but Penn State used a massive second half to pull away (52-36).
Penn State is 0-4 on neutral courts this year after playing VCU, Butler, Texas A&M, and Georgia Tech -- all contenders to make the NCAA tournament. Michigan went 1-3 on neutral courts with a win over Stanford and losses to Florida, Memphis, and Texas Tech.
Both have played quality neutral-court games, but these two teams are not on the same level. The Nittany Lions offense shouldn’t have many issues scoring in this game, so take Penn State -6.5 at -110 odds out to -7.5.
Pick: Penn State -6.5 (1u)
Rutgers vs Maryland (-3.5): O/U 125.5
Rutgers and Maryland meet in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament for an anticipated slugfest.
These are two of the top 12 defenses in the country and when they met this year, the scores were 56-53 (109 points) and 63-46 (109 points) with each team winning on the road.
Including the meeting on Feb. 25, Rutgers is 1-4 with a win over Michigan, while Maryland is 1-3 with its victory over Rutgers. The Terps are 277th in effective field goal percentage (47.1%) on offense over that span and 332nd in three-point shooting (26.1%).
The Knights are in a similar boat with the 292nd-ranked offense and 239th-ranked three-point offense (26.3%). However, Rutgers grades out as the 23rd-best defense compared to Maryland at 92nd.
Neither team shoots the triple well and both struggle from the free-throw line with 66% (Rutgers) and 72.1% (Maryland) marks on the season, but have solid defenses. I played the Under 125.5 at -115 odds and would go down to 124.5.
Pick: Under 125.5 (1u)
Season Record: 67-60 (52.7%) +0.47 units
CBB Futures In My Pocket:
Risk 2u: UConn to win the Big East Tournament (-135)
1u: Houston win the National Championship (+700)
1u: UConn to make the Final Four (+110)
1u: Duke to win the ACC Tournament (+180)
1u: Iowa State to make the Final Four (+550)
1u: South Florida to win the AAC Tournament (+500)
1u: Illinois to win the Big Ten Tournament (+500)
1u:
1u: Samford to win the SoCon Tournament (+155)
1u: Stetson and Vermont Conference Parlay (+103)
1u: Toledo to win the MAC Tournament (+340)
0.1u: Ohio State to win the Big Ten Tournament (+5000)
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