College basketball picks, Mar. 1: Air Force vs. Utah State prediction, odds, stats for MWC matchup

The first-place team in the Mountain West Conference will take the floor tonight as the No. 22 Utah State Aggies will play host to the Air Force Falcons. Tipoff is set for 11 p.m. ET and the game will air on FS1. Utah State dominated Air Force 88-60 in their first matchup back on January 2.

Air Force (9-18, 2-13 MWC) came right back down to earth after last Saturday’s upset of New Mexico, suffering a 79-48 blowout loss to Boise State on Tuesday. This was actually a two-point game early in the second half before the Broncos put their foot down by breaking off a 20-3 run. Rytis Petraitis led with 19 points and nine rebounds in the loss.

Utah State (23-5, 11-4 MWC) has won two straight heading into this contest and narrowly avoided a bad loss in a 77-73 overtime victory over Fresno State on Tuesday. Down by three in the closing moments, Darius Brown II came through with a huge shot from downtown with two seconds left to send the game to OT. He’d then fire off another clutch three in the final minute of the extra period to put the Aggies on top for good. Brown had 15 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists while Great Osobor led with 21 points and 11 boards.

Utah State totally dominated Air Force in their first matchup and that was mostly thanks to the team shooting 63.3% from the field. The Aggies have had the best effective shooting in the conference at 54.7% and that should come in handy against a Falcon team that has had the least efficient defense in the conference per KenPom. AF plays with the fourth-slowest tempo in the entire country and if it wants to pull off an upset like it did at New Mexico last weekend, it needs to grind this game down to a screeching halt.

What this game means for Air Force

Air Force is playing out the string of the regular season and will most likely finish last behind San Jose State unless it wins another game or two. The Falcons did pick up a huge win against one of the league’s top teams in New Mexico last week and can be a true agent of chaos if they take down the Wolf Pack tonight.

What this game means for Utah State

Utah State is sitting at the top of a crowded race for the Mountain West Conference regular season title and it’s margin of error to win in are slim. A loss could be devastating to the Aggies’ chances of grabbing the No. 1 seed in the MWC tourney, so they need to go ahead and squash a team like Air Force when they have the chance.

Air Force vs. Utah State odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Utah State -17.5
Total: 137
Moneyline: Utah State -1800. Air Force +1000