Air Force vs. Utah State odds, line, time: 2023 college football picks, Week 3 predictions by proven model

The Utah State Aggies face a much stiffer test this week when they visit the Air Force Falcons for a Mountain West Conference matchup in college football Week 3. The Falcons (2-0) had one of the nation's best defenses last season, as well as one of the top run games. That dominance has continued through two weeks, but the offense struggled a bit in last Saturday's 13-3 victory against Sam Houston. The Aggies (1-1) come in off a 50-point victory against Idaho State last Saturday. They also have won the past two meetings -- a 34-27 home victory in 2022 and a 49-45 triumph in Colorado in 2021. The all-time series is tied 5-5, and the Falcons had won four of five before Utah State's current streak.

Friday's kickoff at Falcon Stadium, outside Colorado Springs, is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. The latest Utah State vs. Air Force odds from the SportsLine consensus list the Falcons as 9.5-point favorites, and the over/under for total points scored is set at 46.5. Before locking in any Air Force vs. Utah State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of nearly $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Utah State vs. Air Force and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Air Force vs. Utah State: 

• Utah State vs. Air Force spread: Falcons -9
• Utah State vs. Air Force over/under: 46.5 points
• Utah State vs. Air Force money line: Aggies +266, Falcons -340
• Utah State: Is 6-3 ATS as a road underdog the past two seasons.
• Air Force: Is 9-6-1 ATS in conference games the past two years.
• Utah State vs. Air Force picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Air Force can cover

Air Force went 5-4 against the spread when favored by 9.5 points or more last season and was 7-6 ATS overall. The Falcons' fierce defense and powerful run game are a potent combination. Air Force is averaging 309 rushing yards through two games, after it led the nation last year at 327 per contest. The Air Force defense is yielding 118 total yards and has six sacks and two fumble recoveries. AFA led FBS in yards allowed last season, yielding just 256 per contest.

The Falcons gave up 13.3 points per game (third in FBS) while scoring 27.8 in 2022. Running back John Lee Eldridge averaged 7.7 yards per carry in rushing for 766 as the No. 2 option last season. He is averaging 8.3 in 2023 and had a 65-yard run against Robert Morris. Quarterback Zac Larrier has a team-high 164 rushing yards, and Owen Burk has 112. Larrier has completed just three of six passes, but one went for an 84-yard touchdown to Jared Roznos in the opener. See which team to pick here.

Why Utah State can cover

Utah State's 50-point victory, in which they put up 591 yards against Idaho State, should instill confidence. USU also outgained Iowa in the Week 1 loss, allowing less than 200 passing yards and just 88 on the ground. The Aggies have three players who average more than 8 yards per carry and have more than 100 rushing yards. Rashul Faison has a team-high 154 yards, but Robert Briggs led with 101 in last Saturday's victory as Utah State piled up 380 rushing yards.

The Aggies averaged 8.6 yards per play last week, and quarterback Cooper Legas and Levi Williams are both capable of leading the offense. Each had two touchdown passes last week, and Legas has completed 72% of his throws, with three TDs and one interception. Receiver Terrell Vaughn had 11 catches for 73 yards and two TDs in Week 2. The Utah State defense gave up a lot of passing yards last week, but that won't be much of a concern against AFA. See which team to pick here.

How to make Utah State vs. Air Force picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting that the teams combine for 52 points. The model also shows one side of the spread is hitting well over 60% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.