College bowl season picks against the spread: Pop-Tarts Bowl, Cotton Bowl, more
We are deep into the absolute silliness of bowl season and it’s only going to get weirder from here on out.
After erroneous claims of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl being rigged, eggnog and mayo getting dumped on winning coaches and USC’s most impressive quarterback performance of the year, we’ve finally reached the portion of the postseason where the ranked teams take the field.
But with a number of opt outs, transfers and coaching changes, these are mostly not going to be the same teams we remember from the regular season.
Here’s who our panel is taking as we get closer to the New Years Six:
Opening Line: SMU -8.5
Schuster: SMU -10
This line could be three or four points bigger and I’d still ride with the Ponies. The SMU offense is legit.
Scalici: SMU -10
The Ponies have a major chip on their shoulder between being snubbed by the committee for a spot in the NY6 and the very embarrassing and public discussion about their worthiness to join the ACC.
D’Andrea: SMU -10
Did you see all the strays SMU caught in Florida State’s ACC lawsuit? Yeah, they’ve got a statement to make.
Martinelli: SMU -10
Boston College had a decent five-win stretch in the middle of the season and almost upset Florida State way back when, but the Eagles have fallen off since. Meanwhile, SMU deserved a better bowl and opponent and probably feels like it has something to prove against an ACC team before it joins the conference next year.
Nettuno: SMU -10
The Mustangs were probably deserving of the New Year’s Six bid, but alas, they’ll have to settle for beating the breaks off a future conference foe.
Darney: SMU -10
This is about as far as I’d let the line go before I’d consider Boston College. The Eagles aren’t as awful as I expected before the season (by a long shot) but SMU has been playing really, really well.
Northam: SMU -10
The Mustangs begin their ACC era with a true road win over BC.
Opening Line: Miami -4.5
Schuster: Rutgers +1
Talk to your friends and family about an exciting Rutgers team playing in December.
Scalici: Rutgers +1
It feels weird and gross to type this out but I actually think Rutgers had a pretty impressive season and I’m oddly excited to see how much progress they can make moving forward.
D’Andrea: Rutgers +1
Rutgers was actually sort of good this year and the Bad Boy Mowers Bowl is an accomplishment for them rather than a disappointment for Miami.
Martinelli: Rutgers +1
I’m very uncomfortable with this pick, but Miami had some key players opt out ahead of the draft and quarterback Tyler Van Dyke hit the transfer portal.
Nettuno: Miami -1
Rutgers has been surprisingly plucky this year, and Miami has suffered some portal losses. Still, it’s hard for me to pick against the more talented Hurricanes in what is essentially a pick ’em.
Darney: Rutgers +1
The Scarlet Knights might be more motivated for this one than the Hurricanes. It feels like Miami has lost more to transfers/opt-outs than Rutgers, too.
Northam: Rutgers +1
Miami’s regular season ended with bad vibes and portal exits. This feels like a win that Rutgers will want more.
Opening Line: Kansas State -5
Schuster: NC State +2.5
The vibes around Kansas State athletics right now are not good. The football team lost its offensive coordinator to Texas A&M, lost its starting QB to the transfer portal and the AD and school president appear at odds. Couple that with all the other opt outs and yeah, I’ll take the points.
Scalici: Kansas State -2.5
Betting money on this game is maybe one of the dumbest things you could possibly do considering that literally dozens of players between these two teams have opted out of playing in this bowl game, including multiple starters on both sides of the ball for each team. I’m going with Kansas State because their offensive line remains intact from the season.
D’Andrea: Kansas State -2.5
Winner gets to eat the mascot, of course I’m taking the team from the midwest.
Martinelli: NC State +2.5
If Kansas State had the same roster it started the season with, picking the Wildcats would be a no-brainer. But between the transfer portal and draft declarations, this isn’t the same team that forced overtime against Texas.
Nettuno: Kansas State -2.5
The Wildcats didn’t have a repeat of their conference title season, but it was another solid year, and they’ll wear down NC State in their typical style.
Darney: NC State +2.5
If I don’t get to see a happy Brennan Armstrong eating the most beautiful trophy in college football, I will be furious.
Northam: NC State +2.5
The vibes are good in Raleigh after the regular season concluded with a big win over UNC. Looking forward to seeing Dave Doeren wash down a Pop-Tart with a glass of bourbon.
Opening Line: Arizona -1.5
Schuster: Arizona -2.5
Does this count as a Big 12 matchup? It feels like it should. Anyways, gimmie the Fightin’ Jedd Fisch’s all day.
Scalici: Arizona -2.5
There’s no question Oklahoma is the superior team in terms of talent entering this game but the Wildcats seem excited to be in this game and the Sooners are very much ready to put this season behind them.
D’Andrea: Oklahoma +2.5
Arizona’s got a great story and a less talented roster.
Martinelli: Arizona -2.5
In any other year with these teams, the Sooners are an easy pick. But Arizona has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, and I have a feeling it pulls off the upset to end the season with 10 wins.
Nettuno: Arizona -2.5
Oklahoma is the better team on paper, but it feels like the Wildcats will be more motivated after overachieving in 2023.
Darney: Oklahoma +2.5
I’m just going with the more talented roster for this one.
Northam: Oklahoma +2.5
The Sooners have more talented players. Not much else to say.
Opening Line: Notre Dame -10.5
Schuster: Oregon State +6.5
Beavs want it more. That’s all that matters in this one.
Scalici: Oregon State +6.5
I want good things for the Beavers. This is a good team that played a brutal schedule, arguably more difficult than the one Notre Dame played.
D’Andrea: Oregon State +6.5
The Beavers are still playing mad. The Irish expected better than El Paso. Motivation matters.
Martinelli: Notre Dame -6.5
If this game was a month ago, I’d think the Beavers would at least cover, if not win. But between losing their head coach to Michigan State and quarterback DJ Uiagalelei to the transfer portal, the Fighting Irish probably have this game locked up.
Nettuno: Notre Dame -6.5
If these two teams played at full strength, I’d probably pick the Beavers. But with Jonathan Smith and DJU leaving, it’s hard to know what we’ll get from this team.
Darney: Notre Dame -6.5
Both teams are dealing with portal and declaration changes to the roster, but Oregon State is also missing a head coach AND DJU.
Northam: Notre Dame -6.5
I might’ve gone the other way here if DJU stuck with the Beavs, but this could be a rough day for them.
Opening Line: Clemson -7.5
Schuster: Clemson -4.5
I’m supposed to trust a team who’s coach had both feet out the door before a fan revolt at Texas A&M caused him to come running back home?
Scalici: Clemson -4.5
Kentucky’s late season collapse is a bit deceiving as it’s got a lot more to do with their opponents than a drop off in the quality of their play, but I’m still banking on Clemson’s sizable talent advantage being the difference here.
D’Andrea: Clemson -4.5
Who needs NIL money when you’ve got TaxSlayer swag bags?
Martinelli: Kentucky +4.5
I have little faith in either team, but a three-point game seems very reasonable here.
Nettuno: Kentucky +4.5
The Tigers salvaged what could have been a bad season, but I think this is a scary bowl matchup against a Kentucky team that wants to beat you down.
Darney: Clemson -4.5
The Tigers are not the title winning team of years past, but they’re not as awful as a lot of folks made them out to be over the course of the season.
Northam: Clemson -4.5
It feels like the Tigers need this win more than the Wildcats.
Opening Line: Iowa State -6
Schuster: Memphis +9.5
I actually don’t think Iowa State is bad at all but Memphis is literally playing at its home field and should have a strong show of support.
Scalici: Memphis +9.5
Playing Memphis IN Memphis is something you should avoid at all costs if you possibly can.
D’Andrea: Memphis +9.5
The Tigers aren’t better than the Cyclones, but Memphis didn’t have to leave town for this game and that’s enough points to sway me to the home(ish) side.
Martinelli: Memphis +9.5
I can’t believe this spread has been growing, but that’s just way too many points for a game that’s going to be played IN Memphis. Iowa State is an OK team that played the tougher schedule, but this is a home game for the Tigers.
Nettuno: Memphis +9.5
The Tigers were one of the better G5 teams this year, and I think they’ll at least keep it within a score against an Iowa State team that’s about as middle of the road as Power Five teams get.
Darney: Memphis +9.5
Not a ton of fun for Iowa State to get a true road game for a bowl.
Northam: Memphis +9.5
The Tigers are a two-score home dog? Who made this line?
Opening Line: Ohio State -6.5
Schuster: Ohio State -1
The Buckeyes’ B Team could beat Missouri straight up and it looks like Ohio State will have plenty of its A Team ready to go.
Scalici: Missouri +1
One of the most intriguing non-playoff games of the year for me. Fascinated to see how this one plays out but I like Missouri’s defense a lot here, especially with Ohio State scrambling to replace some key offensive pieces.
D’Andrea: Ohio State -1
Not having Kyle McCord might actually be a net benefit.
Martinelli: Ohio State -1
Although the Buckeyes are losing a lot of players to the transfer portal, they’ll probably be better without quarterback Kyle McCord. Missouri is a good team this year, but Ohio State wins this.
Nettuno: Missouri +1
The Tigers are legit, and I think we’re going to see why Devin Brown didn’t win this job the first time around.
Darney: Ohio State -1
This one doesn’t seem like a ton of fun for anyone.
Northam: Missouri +1
Ohio State wants to be in the playoff, not playing for this bowl. Missouri will want this more to cap off its best season in a decade.
