College Football 2023: Week 5 Predictions for Every Game

After a Saturday loaded with big games, dramatic finishes and all sorts of movement, a quiet Week 5 may be exactly what college football fans need.

Just kidding.

Sure, a handful of programs in the AP Top 25 are heading into an idle weekend. Still, the slate features four matchups of ranked opponents—including Utah and Oregon State on Friday evening.

Among the 12 active teams in the Top 15, 10 of them are preparing for a road game, too.

Most matchups against an unranked opponent seem reasonably favorable, so the weekend might not produce many unexpected results. But that doesn't mean college football's brand of lovable nonsense won't manage to ruin someone's season this weekend anyway.

Nevada (0-4) at No. 25 Fresno State (4-0), 10:30 p.m. ET

Fresno State has done a remarkable job overhauling its offense and remaining among the Mountain West's top teams. The unbeaten start figures to continue against a Nevada squad that has mustered only 4.7 yards per snap and 17.0 points per game.

Prediction: Fresno State 38, Nevada 21

No. 24 Kansas (4-0) at No. 3 Texas (4-0), 3:30 p.m. ET

See No. 3 Texas for prediction.

No. 23 Missouri (4-0) at Vanderbilt (2-3), 4 p.m. ET

I would not be quick to dismiss Vanderbilt, considering the offense has produced 33.4 points per game. This is Missouri's first non-neutral road game of the season, too. That combination won't necessarily lead to an upset, but Vandy is capable of giving Mizzou a four-quarter test.

Prediction: Missouri 31, Vanderbilt 24

No. 22 Florida (3-1) at Kentucky (4-0), Noon ET

Expect a 40-30 game, because this should be a defensive slog. Kentucky, a slight favorite, holds an underrated home-field advantage that tripped up the Gators in 2021 and has otherwise been a nuisance to UF for nearly a decade. The effectiveness of Florida's running game against a UK defense that has ceded only 2.6 yards per carry may determine the result. Advantage: Kentucky.

Prediction: Kentucky 23, Florida 20

South Carolina (2-2) at No. 21 Tennessee (3-1), 7:30 p.m. ET

Last season, South Carolina halted UT's run toward a possible College Football Playoff bid in November. A little bit of redemption is on the way. Tennessee has struggled to connect on its downfield shots—an asset that defined the 2022 team—and fallen well short of its scoring upside. South Carolina, though, has already given up 10 passes of 30-plus yards. Tennessee's offense finally breaks through.

Prediction: Tennessee 38, South Carolina 24

No. 13 LSU (3-1) at No. 20 Ole Miss (3-1), 6 p.m. ET

See No. 13 LSU for prediction.

No. 10 Utah (4-0) at No. 19 Oregon State (3-1), Friday, 9 p.m. ET

See No. 10 Utah for prediction.

No. 18 Miami (4-0), Idle

No. 11 Notre Dame (3-1) at No. 17 Duke (4-0), 7:30 p.m. ET

See No. 11 Notre Dame for prediction.

No. 16 Washington State (4-0), Idle

No. 15 North Carolina (4-0), Idle

Iowa State (2-2) at No. 14 Oklahoma (4-0), 7 p.m. ET

After totaling 20 points in losses to Iowa and Ohio, the Cyclones rebounded nicely with a 34-27 win over Oklahoma State. However, the Sooner State sweep is not in the cards. Led by Dillon Gabriel, OU's firepower on offense will be too much for Iowa State to handle.

Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Iowa State 14

No. 13 LSU (3-1) at No. 20 Ole Miss (3-1), 6 p.m. ET

I tried to believe, Ole Miss. Once again, though, the offense had a letdown in a key game and mustered 301 yards on 4.6 yards per play at Alabama. Week 5 brings another great opportunity for the Rebels, who should be able to capitalize on a shaky LSU pass defense. But the explosiveness of LSU's scoring attack ultimately wins out.

Prediction: LSU 38, Ole Miss 31

No. 12 Alabama (3-1) at Mississippi State (2-2), 9 p.m. ET

Not only did Mississippi State lose to both LSU and South Carolina, but the defense did nothing to stop the passing game. Those quarterbacks hit 49-of-57 passes for 11.5 yards per attempt with five touchdowns to zero interceptions. Alabama has a flawed offense, but that's just nightmarish execution from Mississippi State's defense.

Prediction: Alabama 33, Mississippi State 17

No. 11 Notre Dame (3-1) at No. 17 Duke (4-0), 7:30 p.m. ET

Notre Dame put together a decent showing opposite Ohio State, but a couple of wasted scoring chances—something that hadn't happened this season to that point—cost the Fighting Irish a marquee upset. That's the exact blueprint of how Duke upended Clemson in Week 1. However, lightning will not strike twice in Durham.

Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Duke 16

No. 10 Utah (4-0) at No. 19 Oregon State (3-1), Friday, 9 p.m. ET

I'm over wondering if Utah quarterback Cam Rising is going to play and how that might affect the slight-underdog Utes. They're winning no matter what, darn it. This defense has surrendered no more than 13 points in four victories, so I'll trust the unit until proven otherwise. (Apologies in advance, Utah fans. I am bad luck.)

Prediction: Utah 20, Oregon State 16

No. 9 Oregon (4-0) at Stanford (1-3), 6:30 p.m. ET

After stomping Colorado last week, Oregon probably has another comfortable win on the way. Stanford ranks 118th nationally in yards allowed per snap, while Oregon's offense is sixth in the category. That's not an ideal recipe for an upset, even though Stanford is at home.

Prediction: Oregon 45, Stanford 14

No. 8 USC (4-0) at Colorado (3-1), Noon ET

I wasn't the least bit surprised Oregon put up 42 points on CU. Conversely, the Buffs only managing 199 yards and six points? I find it hard to believe that'll happen again, especially against a questionable USC defense. Colorado won't keep up with Caleb Williams, though. He's tallied no less than 10.4 yards per pass attempt in all four games.

Prediction: USC 47, Colorado 24

No. 7 Washington (4-0) at Arizona (3-1), 10 p.m. ET

Eventually, a defense might slow down Michael Penix Jr. and Washington's ridiculous passing game. But it likely won't be Arizona, which has yielded 7.8 yards per throw with zero interceptions so far.

Prediction: Washington 49, Arizona 17

No. 6 Penn State (4-0) at Northwestern (2-2), Noon ET

Northwestern earned an unexpected Week 4 victory over Minnesota thanks to a stellar late comeback. Penn State is a far, far greater challenge. Last week, the Nittany Lions continued their defensive tear and blanked Iowa. Northwestern won't get shut out, but its offense is too limited to compete with Penn State.

Prediction: Penn State 31, Northwestern 10

No. 5 Florida State (4-0), Idle

No. 4 Ohio State (4-0), Idle

No. 24 Kansas (4-0) at No. 3 Texas (4-0), 3:30 p.m. ET

Last season, Texas waltzed into Lawrence and obliterated the Jayhawks with 539 yards in a 55-14 rout. I don't anticipate a second blowout of that variety, but Texas is built to throw all over a Kansas defense that allowed 357 passing yards to BYU in Week 4.

Prediction: Texas 41, Kansas 27

No. 2 Michigan (4-0) at Nebraska (2-2), 3:30 p.m. ET

While mediocre competition level is certainly a factor, Michigan has been the steadiest team in the nation. The offense has plenty to prove against top competition, but Nebraska doesn't fit that billing. Provided the Wolverines limit the mobility of quarterback Heinrich Haarberg, they're in little danger of an upset in Lincoln.

Prediction: Michigan 31, Nebraska 10

No. 1 Georgia (4-0) at Auburn (3-1), 3:30 p.m. ET

Georgia is still the safest pick to reach the CFP, but it hasn't exactly looked dominant thus far. As UGA enters its first road contest of the season, that probably won't change, either. But a few unimpressive opening halves from the Dawgs are much less concerning than Auburn's major quarterback conundrum.

Prediction: Georgia 30, Auburn 13

Middle Tennessee (1-3) at Western Kentucky (2-2), Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Western Kentucky 31, Middle Tennessee 20

Temple (2-2) at Tulsa (2-2), Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Tulsa 26, Temple 21

Jacksonville State (3-1) at Sam Houston (0-3), Thursday, 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Jacksonville State 20, Sam Houston 10

Louisville (4-0) at North Carolina State (3-1), Friday, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Louisville 28, NC State 23

Louisiana Tech (2-3) at UTEP (1-4), Friday, 9 p.m. ET
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 24, UTEP 20

Cincinnati (2-2) at BYU (3-1), Friday, 10:15 p.m. ET
Prediction: BYU 27, Cincinnati 24

Texas A&M (3-1) vs. Arkansas (2-2), Noon ET
Prediction: Arkansas 30, Texas A&M 23

Clemson (2-2) at Syracuse (4-0), Noon ET
Prediction: Clemson 28, Syracuse 24

Louisiana (3-1) at Minnesota (2-2), Noon ET
Prediction: Minnesota 27, Louisiana 20

UAB (1-3) at Tulane (3-1), Noon ET
Prediction: Tulane 37, UAB 17

Buffalo (0-4) at Akron (1-3), Noon ET
Prediction: Buffalo 26, Akron 23

South Alabama (2-2) at James Madison (4-0), Noon ET
Prediction: James Madison 30, South Alabama 24

Utah State (1-3) at Connecticut (0-4), Noon ET
Prediction: Utah State 28, UConn 20

Eastern Michigan (2-2) at Central Michigan (2-2), 1:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: EMU 27, CMU 21

Virginia (0-4) at Boston College (1-3), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Boston College 29, Virginia 24

Miami (Ohio) (3-1) at Kent State (1-3), 2:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Miami 34, Kent State 17

Arizona State (1-3) at California (2-2), 3 p.m. ET
Prediction: Cal 28, Arizona State 16

Baylor (1-3) at UCF (3-1), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: UCF 34, Baylor 20

Houston (2-2) at Texas Tech (1-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Texas Tech 26, Houston 21

Indiana (2-2) at Maryland (4-0), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Maryland 37, Indiana 17

Illinois (2-2) at Purdue (1-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Illinois 24, Purdue 20

Wagner (2-2) at Rutgers (3-1), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Rutgers 38, Wagner 10

Bowling Green (1-3) at Georgia Tech (2-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Georgia Tech 34, Bowling Green 17

South Florida (2-2) at Navy (1-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: USF 24, Navy 21

Northern Illinois (1-3) at Toledo (3-1), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Toledo 35, NIU 20

Ball State (1-3) at Western Michigan (1-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Ball State 24, Western Michigan 17

Arkansas State (2-2) at Massachusetts (1-4), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Arkansas State 27, UMass 23

Old Dominion (2-2) at Marshall (3-0), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Marshall 26, Old Dominion 14

Boise State (2-2) at Memphis (3-1), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Memphis 31, Boise State 24

Hawaii (2-3) at UNLV (3-1), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: UNLV 35, Hawaii 23

New Mexico (2-2) at Wyoming (3-1), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Wyoming 23, New Mexico 16

East Carolina (1-3) at Rice (2-2), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Rice 27, East Carolina 17

Abilene Christian (2-2) at North Texas (1-2), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: North Texas 42, Abilene Christian 14

Utah Tech (1-3) at Colorado State (1-2), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: CSU 48, Utah Tech 17

Troy (2-2) at Georgia State (4-0), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Georgia State 26, Troy 21

Coastal Carolina (2-2) at Georgia Southern (3-1), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Georgia Southern 32, Coastal Carolina 29

Texas State (3-1) at Southern Miss (1-3), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Texas State 31, Southern Miss 24

Michigan State (2-2) at Iowa (3-1), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Iowa 23, Michigan State 14

Charlotte (1-3) at SMU (2-2), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: SMU 34, Charlotte 16

West Virginia (3-1) at TCU (3-1), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: TCU 27, West Virginia 23

Pitt (1-3) at Virginia Tech (1-3), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Pitt 24, Virginia Tech 17

San Diego State (2-3) at Air Force (4-0), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Air Force 28, SDSU 14

Appalachian State (2-2) at Louisiana-Monroe (2-1), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: App State 30, ULM 20