2023 College Football Picks: Week 1 Predictions for Every Game
After a lovely seven-game schedule kicked off the 2023 college football season, the first weekend of September is filled with matchups.
Beginning Thursday night, the slate includes five straight days of action and 87 games around the country.
Sure, the schedule isn't loaded with marquee games. Week 1 is a perfect reminder of the sport's lifeblood; Group of Five and lower-division programs need these outings to financially support their future.
But there will be plenty of drama.
The massive Sunday night showdown between Top 10 teams LSU and Florida State headlines Week 1, and B/R has predictions for each contest involving a Football Bowl Subdivision squad.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Utah State at No. 25 Iowa, Noon ET
Iowa is hoping Michigan transfer Cade McNamara can spark what's been a lifeless offense lately. That's no guarantee, of course, but an opener against Utah State—which allowed 31.2 points per game in 2022—at least provides an ideal chance for Iowa to start hot.
Prediction: Iowa 34, Utah State 7
South Alabama at No. 24 Tulane, 8 p.m. ET
In one of the best under-the-radar matchups of Week 1, top Sun Belt contender South Alabama travels to reigning AAC champ Tulane. The major question mark in this contest is how Tulane's defense looks with a handful of new starters and a new coordinator. QB Michael Pratt should lead the Green Wave past South Alabama, but expecting a tight finish is reasonable.
Prediction: Tulane 24, South Alabama 20
New Mexico at No. 23 Texas A&M, 7 p.m. ET
Do the Aggies deserve a preseason ranking after a 5-7 year? While it's a legitimate topic, that conversation will be more relevant when Texas A&M travels to Miami in Week 2. Given that New Mexico mustered just 13.1 points per game in 2022, A&M should win painlessly.
Prediction: Texas A&M 45, New Mexico 10
Mercer at No. 22 Ole Miss, 2 p.m. ET
Ole Miss is going to beat lower-division Mercer. The storyline to know, however, is that Lane Kiffin hasn't named a starting quarterback. Will it be Jaxson Dart or Oklahoma State transfer Spencer Sanders? And no matter who begins the game, does the other QB play early too?
Prediction: Ole Miss 48, Mercer 6
No. 21 North Carolina vs. South Carolina (Charlotte), 7:30 p.m. ET
The prime-time clash is a valuable game for both programs. North Carolina is a fringe New Year's Six bowl contender, while South Carolina is aiming to build on its torrid November that included upsets of Tennessee and Clemson. I'll lean on UNC's returning experience led by star quarterback Drake Maye, but South Carolina will be a thorn.
Prediction: North Carolina 27, South Carolina 24
Arkansas State at No. 20 Oklahoma, Noon ET
Oklahoma coach Brent Venables talked a pretty big game throughout the offseason, which felt decently bold for someone who oversaw a seven-loss year in 2022. But, hey, if the Sooners win a bunch in 2023, no worries. The redemption tour begins with a blowout at home.
Prediction: Oklahoma 48, Arkansas State 17
Buffalo at No. 19 Wisconsin, 3:30 p.m. ET
Among the many intriguing topics in Week 1, Wisconsin is set to unveil an Air Raid offense. Buffalo is an ideal opening opponent because it returns a couple of solid starters in the secondary but is inexperienced enough to surrender some big-play opportunities.
Prediction: Wisconsin 41, Buffalo 10
No. 18 Oregon State at San Jose State, Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Despite losing 56-28 to USC, San Jose State showed the danger of its offense. Oregon State—which is set to unveil Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback—should also be able to score consistently, but SJSU may stick around longer than is comfortable for OSU fans.
Prediction: Oregon State 38, San Jose State 24
Colorado at No. 17 TCU, Noon ET
Both the debut of Deion Sanders-led Colorado and the return of last year's national runner-up will happen in Saturday's early window. For now, the upside of TCU's defense and talent level on offense is more believable than a CU program that stunk in 2022 and is practically brand new. Still, considering the overhaul, this is clearly all guesswork.
Prediction: TCU 37, Colorado 24
Southeast Missouri State at No. 16 Kansas State, 7 p.m. ET
Kansas State must be prepared for a dangerous offense, one that returns quarterback Paxton DeLaurent, All-American back Geno Hess and top receiver Ryan Flournoy. As much as SEMO is a strong FCS team, though, let's not forget that K-State is the reigning Big 12 champ.
Prediction: Kansas State 38, SEMO 17
Portland State at No. 15 Oregon, 3 p.m. ET
Last season, Washington steamrolled Portland State 52-6. I would anticipate more of the same as Oregon returns star quarterback Bo Nix, the 1,800-yard backfield tandem of Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington and top receiver Troy Franklin with a cast of transfer wideouts.
Prediction: Oregon 56, Portland State 10
Florida at No. 14 Utah, Thursday, 8 p.m. ET
The enormous asterisk on this prediction is the status of Utah quarterback Cam Rising, who's returning from a torn ACL. Will he play? If yes, I'll take the Utes. If not, well, probably not.
Prediction: Utah 24, Florida 20
Tennessee State at No. 13 Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. ET
Sam Hartman put together an outstanding debut, throwing four touchdowns in the victory over Navy. It's fair to expect a similar afternoon against lower-division Tennessee State.
Prediction: Notre Dame 52, Tennessee State 7
Virginia vs. No. 12 Tennessee (Nashville), Noon ET
Tennessee is one of the 2023's season's biggest wild cards. Can this offense stay sizzling hot under new quarterback Joe Milton? Will a veteran defense ascend from good to great? Those questions will be answered soon enough, but UVA should get a straightforward win.
Prediction: Tennessee 45, Virginia 17
Rice at No. 11 Texas, 3:30 p.m. ET
Texas has a much-needed tuneup opportunity against Rice, which surrendered 66 points to USC in last season's opener. Dispatch the visitors, then Texas can start preparing for its showdown with Alabama.
Prediction: Texas 49, Rice 7
Boise State at No. 10 Washington, 3:30 p.m. ET
In the second Saturday window, this is easily my favorite game. The well-hyped Washington offense has a date with Boise State, the preseason Mountain West favorite. I'm sticking with Michael Penix Jr. and that UW scoring attack, but keep an eye on the margin because Boise State absolutely may be the Group of Five's best team.
Prediction: Washington 37, Boise State 24
No. 9 Clemson at Duke, Monday, 8 p.m. ET
How much should we believe in Duke after a nine-win season? The schedule looks much, much tougher in 2023, although the offense is almost entirely intact. While the reigning ACC champs are the obvious lean, Duke is a fascinating team and has home-field advantage.
Prediction: Clemson 38, Duke 23
No. 5 LSU vs. No. 8 Florida State (Orlando), Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET
See No. 5 LSU for prediction.
West Virginia at No. 7 Penn State, 7:30 p.m. ET
Nothing can cool Neal Brown's warming hot seat faster than a stunning win at Penn State. Unfortunately for the fifth-year WVU coach, the Nittany Lions are equally balanced as they are talented—provided that 2022 5-star Drew Allar performs as his billing suggests.
Prediction: Penn State 34, West Virginia 13
Nevada at No. 6 USC, 6:30 p.m. ET
Caleb Williams kicked off his Heisman Trophy defense with a four-touchdown outing against San Jose State. He'll keep padding those numbers in a pleasant win over Nevada.
Prediction: USC 52, Nevada 17
No. 5 LSU vs. No. 8 Florida State (Orlando), Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET
For good reason, LSU and Florida State commanded a whole lot of positive attention this offseason. Both teams, in short, return veteran QBs on experienced offenses with transfer-infused defenses. Last season's showdown ended with FSU winning on a blocked extra point, but LSU will have its revenge behind a disruptive defensive effort.
Prediction: LSU 27, Florida State 23
Middle Tennessee at No. 4 Alabama, 7:30 p.m. ET
Similar to SEC West counterpart Ole Miss, the appeal of this potential blowout is Alabama's quarterback conundrum. We'll probably see at least two of Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner. Do we get all three?
Prediction: Alabama 48, Middle Tennessee 10
No. 3 Ohio State at Indiana, 3:30 p.m. ET
Ohio State has officially named Kyle McCord as its starter, but the QB competition might not actually be over. Devin Brown will probably get some chances to lead the Buckeyes in a comfortable win.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Indiana 17
East Carolina at No. 2 Michigan, Noon ET
Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will serve as the interim boss in the opener while both head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serve a suspension. Michigan isn't in real danger of losing to a revamped ECU team, but it's a fascinating outlook.
Prediction: Michigan 41, East Carolina 10
UT Martin at No. 1 Georgia, 6 p.m. ET
During an expected rout, one storyline to watch is UGA's backfield. Injuries have hammered the unit, which lost Branson Robinson for the season and is hoping Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards soon leave the injury report. Will freshmen Roderick Robinson II and Andrew Paul get a majority of the carries in the opener?
Prediction: Georgia 45, UT Martin 3
Elon at Wake Forest, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Wake Forest 41, Elon 13
Kent State at Central Florida, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: UCF 40, Kent State 14
Rhode Island at Georgia State, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Georgia State 24, Rhode Island 16
St. Francis (PA) at Western Michigan, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Western Michigan 31, St. Francis 14
North Carolina State at Connecticut, 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: NC State 27, UConn 17
Nebraska at Minnesota, 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Nebraska 24, Minnesota 20
South Dakota at Missouri, 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Missouri 38, South Dakota 13
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Tulsa, 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Tulsa 41, UAPB 14
North Carolina A&T at UAB, 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: UAB 39, North Carolina A&T 10
Southern Utah at Arizona State, 10 p.m. ET
Prediction: Arizona State 42, Southern Utah 13
Howard at Eastern Michigan, 6:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 38, Howard 10
Miami (Ohio) at Miami, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Miami 34, Miami (Ohio) 20
Central Michigan at Michigan State, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Michigan State 30, Central Michigan 17
Louisville at Georgia Tech (Atlanta), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Louisville 29, Georgia Tech 24
Missouri State at Kansas, 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Kansas 52, Missouri State 14
Stanford at Hawaii, 11 p.m. ET
Prediction: Stanford 34, Hawaii 24
Ball State at Kentucky, Noon ET
Prediction: Kentucky 34, Ball State 14
Fresno State at Purdue, Noon ET
Prediction: Purdue 27, Fresno State 20
Northern Illinois at Boston College, Noon ET
Prediction: Boston College 28, Northern Illinois 21
Bowling Green at Liberty, Noon ET
Prediction: Liberty 27, Bowling Green 21
Louisiana Tech at SMU, Noon ET
Prediction: SMU 42, Louisiana Tech 24
Long Island at Ohio, Noon ET
Prediction: Ohio 35, Long Island 10
Robert Morris at Air Force, 1 p.m. ET
Prediction: Air Force 38, Robert Morris 7
Northern Iowa at Iowa State, 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Iowa State 27, Northern Iowa 16
Akron at Temple, 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Temple 26, Akron 17
East Tennessee State at Jacksonville State, 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Jacksonville State 34, ETSU 10
Massachusetts at Auburn, 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Auburn 38, UMass 14
Towson at Maryland, 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Maryland 51, Towson 13
Wofford at Pitt, 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Pitt 41, Wofford 10
Eastern Kentucky at Cincinnati, 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Cincinnati 34, EKU 17
South Florida at Western Kentucky, 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: WKU 42, USF 24
Gardner-Webb at Appalachian State, 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: App State 38, Gardner-Webb 14
Western Carolina at Arkansas, 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Arkansas 52, Western Carolina 13
SE Louisiana at Mississippi State, 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Mississippi State 42, SE Louisiana 16
Colgate at Syracuse, 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Syracuse 51, Colgate 10
California at North Texas, 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Cal 27, North Texas 20
Bryant at UNLV, 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: UNLV 37, Bryant 21
Monmouth at Florida Atlantic, 6 p.m. ET
Prediction: FAU 52, Monmouth 7
Albany at Marshall, 6 p.m. ET
Prediction: Marshall 42, Albany 10
Bucknell at James Madison, 6 p.m. ET
Prediction: James Madison 41, Bucknell 6
The Citadel at Georgia Southern, 6 p.m. ET
Prediction: Georgia Southern 38, The Citadel 14
South Carolina State at Charlotte, 6 p.m. ET
Prediction: Charlotte 34, South Carolina State 0
Maine at Florida International, 6:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: FIU 31, Maine 7
Washington State at Colorado State, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Washington State 38, Colorado State 21
UTSA at Houston, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Houston 28, UTSA 24
Texas State at Baylor, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Baylor 45, Texas State 10
Central Arkansas at Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Oklahoma State 52, Central Arkansas 17
Bethune-Cookman at Memphis, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Memphis 56, Bethune-Cookman 14
Alabama A&M at Vanderbilt, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Vanderbilt 48, Alabama A&M 10
Army at Louisiana-Monroe, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Army 31, ULM 17
Alcorn State at Southern Miss, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Southern Miss 45, Alcorn State 10
Stephen F. Austin at Troy, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Troy 31, Stephen F. Austin 13
Toledo at Illinois, 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Illinois 27, Toledo 21
Texas Tech at Wyoming, 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Texas Tech 38, Wyoming 24
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech, 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Virginia Tech 37, Old Dominion 14
Northwestern State at Louisiana, 8:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Louisiana 52, Northwestern State 10
Western Illinois at New Mexico State, 9 p.m. ET
Prediction: NMSU 44, Western Illinois 14
Incarnate Word at UTEP, 9 p.m. ET
Prediction: Incarnate Word 27, UTEP 24
Northern Arizona at Arizona, 10 p.m. ET
Prediction: Arizona 42, Northern Arizona 17
Sam Houston at BYU, 10:15 p.m. ET
Prediction: BYU 31, Sam Houston 14
Coastal Carolina at UCLA, 10:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: UCLA 37, Coastal Carolina 24
Idaho State at San Diego State, 10:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: San Diego State 41, Idaho State 10
Northwestern at Rutgers, Sunday, Noon ET
Prediction: Rutgers 24, Northwestern 14
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