College Football Betting: Big 12 Picks, Best Bets and Predictions
This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
We are on the eve of the start of College Football and with all the program movements and conference realignments, I wonder if any of these conferences will update their names. For instance, there are 14 teams in the Big Ten and 14 in the Big 12. Next year the Big Ten may have as many as 18 programs. One certainty is that this will be the final season as a member of the Power-5 for the PAC-12 conference.
The Big 12 may prove to be the most competitive conference this season following up on an outstanding previous season. Three teams have wins totals of 9.5 starting with the Oklahoma Sooners, the Oklahoma State Cowboys, and the Texas Longhorns. The lowest wins total are connected to newcomer, Houston, and the West Virginia Mountaineers at 4.5 wins. So, a few upsets by programs with low expectations and they may end up playing in a bowl game.
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The Longhorns are ranked 11th nationally in the first AP poll of the season and that disrespect must be quite motivating for them. They return 16 starters from last year's team that went 8-5 SU and ATS under third-year head coach Steve Sarkisian. Most important is they return quarterback Quinn Ewers, but Sarkisian will be quick to make a move to freshman Arch Manning, who has the bloodline family tree to be one of the best signal callers in Texas program history.
The Longhorn's schedule is one of the toughest, which will serve them well at the end of the season. They begin action in Week 1 hosting the American Athletic Conference-member Rice Owls, who went 5-8 SU and 6-7 ATS last season. Texas is installed as a monster 35.5-point favorite in this matchup and obviously will win this game. However, then comes the first test of many for them with a date in Tuscaloosa against the SEC-member and fourth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. This is a game where the rubber must hit the road and for the Longhorns to come away with the shocking upset win. I project them to be 9.5-point road underdogs in this matchup to be played on September 9.
The next major test is a date with their rival Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry set for October 7. The Sooners will most assuredly show up to avenge their humiliating 49-0 loss to the Longhorns last season no matter their record. The best-case scenario is for the Longhorns to be undefeated after this game at 6-0 and ranked in the Top-5 nationally. If this is the case, they have a great shot at going undefeated on the season, and even if they split the 'Bama and Sooner games, they just might be a one-loss conference championship team that the College Football Playoff committee would have a near impossible task to exclude them.
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I have bet a 'Pizza Money' size bet on the Longhorns to get to the College Football Playoff paying +325 at BetMGM.
Despite the heavy favorite money line price, I bet the Longhorns at -200 to make the Big-12 Championship game.
Oklahoma is coming off their first losing record season since 1998 and the pressure is on for head coach Brent Venable to at least get to the Big-12 Championship game. He has 14 returning starters with seven each on offense and defense including quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Oklahoma led the Big 12 in offense, but the biggest problem was on the defensive side. Venable is known for his elite defensive mind and he was quite successful in the transfer portal to significantly improve the unit. I do not see it being enough for Oklahoma to bounce back from a losing season and contend for a Championship.
Oklahoma went 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS last season. They started 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS with wins over bad teams and when they faced better competition in the Big 12, they fell far short of expectations. The news this season is not favorable for a bounce back noting that in seasons past since 1997, Oklahoma is 41-38-1 SU and 35-44 ATS (44%) when coming off a season in which they won seven or fewer games and had a losing ATS record.
I like betting Oklahoma to have Under 9.5 wins.
The Kansas State Wildcats are the team that has the potential to be an extremely large thorn in the sides of the Texas Longhorns this season. Kansas State has 13 returning starters returning for fifth-year head coach Chris Klieman, who is 30-20 SU and an outstanding 32-17-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. Last season they went 10-4 SU and 9-4-1 ATS for 69% winning bets. When a team hits this high of an ATS win percentage, a regression to the mean becomes more likely, but it does not mean they cannot win games.
The Kansas State offense returns eight starters including senior quarterback Will Howard, who will be expected to take a huge step forward after throwing for 1,633 yards including an efficient 15 TD with only four interceptions. He played in seven games last season, and he projects to have more than 2,500 passing yards, 25 TDs, and 10 interceptions this season. He will have two new weapons starting with the portal transfer from the Iowa Hawkeyes, Keagan Johnson. He started for Iowa as a true freshman in 2021, but was hurt last season missing 10 games. The second starter is running back Treshaun Ward, a senior transfer from the loaded Florida State Seminoles. He played 10 games last season gaining 649 rushing yards and seven TD on 95 carries and was awarded All-ACC Honorable Mention. The Kansas State offense has tremendous upside potential and a realistic shot at defeating Texas in Week 10 action on the road in Austin.
I like betting Kansas State at +325 to make the Big-12 Conference Championship game at BetMGM.
I like betting Kansas State Over 8 wins -125 at BetMGM
