College football betting picks: NCAA football Week 4 odds

talkSPORT

21 September 2023

College football betting picks: NCAA football Week 4 odds

Week 3 may have been light on high-level matchups, but the Week 4 slate is set to make up for it and then some. There are six matchups between ranked teams on Saturday’s slate.

This marks only the second time since 2017 that there have been this many ranked opponents facing off. With 19th-ranked Colorado facing their toughest test yet against 10th-ranked Oregon, 6th-ranked Ohio State facing off with 9th-ranked Notre Dame, and several other notable matchups- this week will not be short on storylines. Here is a look at some of the notable college football matchups in Week 4 and a breakdown of the best betting odds and intriguing values.

🏅 Win odds overview for this week’s matchups

NCAAF weekly predictions

With the cream beginning to rise to the top for the biggest threats in college football this season, Week 4 will prove to be a pivotal one. With many teams having scheduled blowout victories to kick off the year, this will be the first true test. This is the case for 22nd-ranked UCLA who enter with a 3-0 record after taking down Coastal Carolina, San Diego State, and North Carolina Central by a combined margin of 121-30.

They will be facing off against 11th-ranked Utah with there being the greatest sense of optimism surrounding Cam Rising’s chances of making his debut after he missed the first three games of the season recovering from a torn ACL. Transfer QB Sam Hartman and 9th-ranked Notre Dame will also be tasked with their first challenge as they face off against 6th-ranked Ohio State this week. The Fighting Irish have taken down Tennessee State, North Carolina State, and Central Michigan by a combined score of 142-44. The Buckeyes are also fairly untested as they have defeated Indiana, Youngstown State, and Western Kentucky by a combined margin of 121-20 this season.

With a number of matchups also set to play a major role in deciding the conference champion- including matchups in the SEC, ACC, and PAC-12- there is plenty at stake this week. There also will begin to be some attention paid to the Heisman trophy race as there has been some line movement since the start of the season.

USC QB and reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams remains the favorite with DraftKings giving him +360 odds of taking home the trophy again this year. USC will face off with Arizona State this week, and are favored by 34 points, before a brutal schedule to end the season including matchups with Colorado, Notre Dame, Washington, UCLA, and Oregon. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr (+600), Texas QB Quinn Ewers (+700), Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman (+1000), Florida State QB Jordan Travis (+1500), and Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders (+1800) also remain in the mix.

Week 3 college football betting picks

While there is still plenty of time in the season for the Heisman race to continue, Week 4 has the potential to be a statement game for a number of candidates. There is a lot at stake in these matchups from both individual and team goal aspects. Here is a look at some of the most intriguing values on the board and the logic behind the selections.

✔️ Penn State vs. 24 Iowa- Under 40.5 outcome at -110 odds (Betway)

Date and Time: Saturday, September 23rd, 7:30 PM EST
Location: University Park, Pennsylvania
TV/Stream: CBS

There is sure to be quite the atmosphere in Beaver Stadium as fans from the Pennsylvania area will crowd for the much-awaited White Out game. The matchup is sure to match the spectacle as a pair of ranked opponents will square off with the Iowa Hawkeyes making the trip. Penn State entered the season with their most legitimate college football playoff hopes in years, and there is a chance for them to make a statement in this matchup. However, with some concerns on offense for both teams, play it safe and look at the under for this smashmouth matchup.

Iowa has played a notoriously old-fashioned style of football in recent years. This has become such an issue that the Hawkeyes’ offensive coordinator, Brian Ferentz, had a clause placed in his contract that the team must score at least 25 points per game to keep his job. Through three games they are averaging 28.7 points per game with 41 of these points coming against Western Michigan last week. As much as this is a mark of improvement for Iowa, they still have work to do offensively. Quarterback Cade McNamara has not looked to take the steps forward as was hoped as evidenced by his 53.2% completion percentage, four passing touchdowns, and three interceptions. While there will be games where Iowa has a chance to run up the score against some other opponents, this will not be a matchup that helps Ferentz’s case. The Penn State defense is loaded with future NFL talent and has allowed just 11.7 points per game so far this year. Expect this fearsome unit to cause some issues for Iowa and for them to struggle to score the ball throughout.

While the defense has shown signs of being the dominant unit it is expected to be, there is more concern with Penn State’s offense. There are high expectations for QB Drew Allar after he became the highest-ranked recruit to commit to Penn State during the James Franklin era. While the team has had no issues securing a win against West Virginia, Delaware, or Illinois, it has been a bit of a mixed bag for Allar. While the raw stats look mostly solid, he has not had the composer expected for a guy who was seemingly being prepped for the moment all last year. Despite the 131 points that Penn State has scored as a team, Allar is responsible for just five total touchdowns. Expect both offenses to show some growing pains in this matchup and for points to be hard to come by. Jump on the under at 40 at -110 odds with Betway and buckle up for some smashmouth throwback football.

✔️ Ole Miss vs. Alabama - Ole Miss +7 outcome at -112 odds (BetRivers)

Date and time: Saturday, September 23rd, 3:30 PM EST
Location: Tuscaloosa, Alabama
TV/Stream: CBS

It is not often there is this much skepticism around an Alabama football program. However, with a 2-1 record and uncertain on-field play, there is fair reason for concern. The loss to 3rd-ranked Texas should not cause too much concern, but another loss could put them on the outside looking in when it comes to the college football playoffs. With the home crowd behind them and the pressure beginning to be felt, this feels like an ideal spot for Alabama. But there are just too many concerns to overlook with their roster when it comes to backing them here.

For starters, Alabama has a legitimate quarterback issue. After playing in 12 games over the past two seasons with the Crimson Tide, Jalen Milroe suited up as the starter for the first two games of the season but was benched for Week 3. Instead, Nick Saban turned to Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner who completed just 8 of his 19 pass attempts (42.1%) for an abysmal 61 yards. Following his struggles, the keys will be handed back to Milroe this week but this feels like a move win in which Saban is choosing the lesser of two evils. Beyond just the quarterback position, Alabama lacks the typical level of talent that we have become accustomed to. While the roster still stands out comparatively to most colleges, there isn’t the same number of future NFL stars at the skills position that has become the norm. They still can be counted on to be well-coached and play a tough brand of football, but Alabama has to find its identity before anyone else should believe in them. This team does not have the ability to blow out a team of Ole Miss’ caliber and the spread feels much too large.

In contrast, Ole Miss is playing an exciting brand of football and has climbed up the rankings as a result. While they have not been tested much, with their three wins against Mercer, Tulane, and Georgia Tech, there is little to complain about regarding their production. Quarterback Jaxson Dart is building a dark horse Heisman case for himself. On the season Dart has connected on 45 of his 68 pass attempts for 852 yards and seven touchdowns. He also has added 213 yards and a pair of touchdowns on the ground this season. As a team, they are rushing for an impressive 5.1 yards per carry while holding opponents to just 2.9. This will be the most difficult challenge thus far for Ole Miss but they are clicking on all cylinders and ready for the matchup. It feels the game must break exactly right for Alabama to get the win while Ole Miss can win in a number of different ways. Take Ole Miss to cover the spread at +7 with -112 odds at BetRivers and don’t be surprised if they win the game outright.

✔️ Florida State vs. Clemson - Florida State -2.5 outcome at -110 odds (DraftKings)

Date and time: Saturday, September 23rd, 12:00 PM EST
Location: Clemson, South Carolina
TV/Stream: ABC

This is a matchup that will say a lot about the remaining expectations for each of these teams. Clemson has fallen all the way out of the AP Top 25 after starting the season as the 9th-ranked team in the country. They enter this game with a 2-1 record although the 28-7 loss to Duke during opening week may not look as bad now that the Blue Devils have climbed to 18th in this week’s rankings. Since this time, Clemson has demolished Charleston Southern and Florida Atlantic by a combined score of 114-31 and this is a prime chance to make a statement. This matchup also marks the first time Clemson will be home underdogs since 2016.

Unfortunately, it will be a tough task against this Florida State team which is one of the more intriguing programs in the country. They enter this matchup with a 3-0 record including a 45-24 victory over LSU in Week 1. FSU is coming off a somewhat concerning performance in Week 3 as they were squeezed by Boston College by a score of 31-29. Boston College came roaring back in this matchup and nearly managed to overtake the 21-point 4th quarter lead that Florida State had. Nonetheless, the Seminoles held on for the victory. They will need a more complete effort against Clemson’s Top-10-ranked defense this week, but FSU has the talent for a bounce-back performance.

While both teams have really good quarterback options, Jordan Travis has taken a leap this year that Cade Klubnik has not quite shown. Travis has led FSU to nine total touchdowns while turning the ball over just once so far this year. Standout Wide Receiver Keon Coleman has also already found his way into the end zone for four touchdowns this year. A loss here will likely close the door on the college football playoffs this year for Clemson, but Florida State is built for this level of disruption. The ending of Week 3’s game will leave a sour taste in the Seminols’ mouths so expect them to get back to their high standard. The stars have aligned for FSU this season and it feels this is an all-in season where they will be looking to make it to the National Championship for the first time since 2013. Count on the team to make a statement in this matchup with Jordan Travis leading the way. It will be a tough matchup for both sides but the Seminoles have a number of matchup advantages and have played to a much higher peak. Expect this to be the case and take advantage of the -2.5 spread at -110 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

College football betting weekly highlights

Utah QB Cam Rising’s status uncertain for Week 4 matchup against UCLA
- Rising missed Weeks 1, 2, & 3 as he recovers from his ACL tear
- Bryson Barnes and Nate Johnson have split time at QB
Travis Hunter (Colorado) set to miss 3 weeks with Lacerated Liver
Jim Harbaugh returning from his 3-game suspension
Kansas State QB Will Howard is questionable vs UCF with a leg injury
South Carolina WR Antwane “Juice” Wells suffers foot injury expected to keep him out several weeks
Home teams are 195-59-0 straight up this year (76.8%)
Away teams are 59-195-0 straight up this year (23.2%)
Home teams are 125-125-4 ATS this year (50%)
Underdogs are 127-123-4 ATS this year (50.8%)
Favorites are 123-127-4 ATS this year (49.2%)
Home underdogs are 27-25-1 ATs this year (51.9%)
Overs are 127-121 this year (51.2%) but 114-126 in non-overtime games (47.5%%)

🏈 Best college football betting sites

BetMGM (Available in: AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MA, MI, MS, NV, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, PR, TN, VA, WA, WV, and WY)
DraftKings (Available in: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KY, LA, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, and WV)
BetRivers (Available in: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, and WY)
Unibet (Available in: AZ, IN, IA, NJ, PA, and VA)
Desert Diamond (Available in: AZ)
Betway (Available in: IA)