College football betting preview: Oregon vs. Washington pick, line, over-under

After weeks of a 2-2 doom loop, I finally got into the win column this past weekend with a 3-1 Saturday, and the one loss came when LSU pick-sixed its way to a cover against Missouri with about 30 seconds left in the game (underdog Mizzou, my choice, had been covering the entire game). I’m now 11-9 on the season and hopefully have a little momentum.

This column will give out four picks per week: the game of the week, a favorite, an underdog and a wild card, which can be anything (another favorite or underdog in a game that might be flying under the radar or a total, for instance). Hopefully we’ll all be in good shape by the time the clock hits zero at the national championship game in Houston on Jan. 8.

All spreads were taken Wednesday from DraftKings Sportsbook. All times Eastern.

No. 8 Oregon at No. 7 Washington

3:30 p.m., ABC

The pick: Over 67 points

Both of these teams rank in the top 30 nationally in terms of points allowed per game, with the Ducks tied for fifth (11.8 points per game) and the Huskies tied for 27th (18.8). But I have a feeling this battle of Pac-12 title hopefuls could turn into a high-scoring affair.

Oregon has allowed 3.5 yards per play or fewer in four of five games. The one outlier came in a win at Texas Tech on Sept. 9, when the Red Raiders averaged a somewhat gaudy (for a Ducks opponent, anyway) 6.5 yards per play and had four drives end in Oregon territory without any points (a fumble, missed field goal and two interceptions). Texas Tech, the only Ducks opponent this season who ranks in the top 48 in terms of SP+ offense (an opponent-adjusted measure of overall efficiency), scored 30 points and probably should have put up more. Washington’s offense ranks second in SP+, with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. averaging a national-best 399.8 passing yards per game and ranking fifth in completion percentage (74.7). Oregon has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 61.6 percent of their passes, which is just 76th nationally.

Washington’s defensive bugaboo comes against the run, and that’s bad news against an Oregon offense that ranks first in expected points added per rush and fifth in rushing success rate. Ducks running backs Jordan James and Bucky Irving are averaging 8.4 and 7.9 yards per carry, respectively, and both could have big games against a Washington rushing defense that ranks 82nd nationally in EPA per rush. In Saturday’s 31-24 win over Arizona, the Huskies carded a season-low Pro Football Focus rushing defense grade, and their PFF tackling grade was better only than a season-opening win over Boise State. Both of those numbers have been on a general decline as the season has worn on.

This game features two great offenses and two defenses that can be had. I think we’ll see some scoring.

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Indiana at No. 2 Michigan

Noon, Fox

The pick: Michigan -33.5

This is a big number to lay, but it’s becoming increasingly clear the Wolverines might be the best team in the country and should have few problems with an Indiana team that is bad all over the field.

Michigan’s schedule has been rather easy so far, but its past three opponents (Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota) rank 40th, 24th and 46th in SP+ defense, so it’s not as if the Wolverines have played complete pushovers. Michigan has averaged 42.7 points per game over that stretch. Indiana comes in at No. 89 in SP+ defense, No. 76 in defensive success rate and No. 86 in defensive EPA per play. In the Hoosiers’ most recent game, they gave up 8.3 yards per play to Maryland and put up season-worst PFF grades in terms of pass rush and pass coverage. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy (national-best 93.6 QBR) and his sizable collection of pass targets — Roman Wilson, Cornelius Johnson, Colston Loveland and Donovan Edwards all have at least 16 catches, and combined they average 14.7 yards per reception — should have a field day.

Flipping the field, Michigan’s defense ranks 12th in yards per play allowed while Indiana’s offense averages only 5.03 yards per play itself (116th in the nation). The Hoosiers posted their two worst marks of the season in that department against the two best defenses they have faced in Ohio State (2.83 yards per play) and Maryland (4.12). Michigan’s defense is better than either of those teams’, and the Wolverines roll here.

No. 14 Louisville at Pittsburgh

6:30 p.m., CW Network

The pick: Pittsburgh +7.5

This spread seems curiously low, considering that Louisville is undefeated and flying high after this past weekend’s win over Notre Dame while Pitt is 1-4 and just benched Phil Jurkovec, its heralded transfer quarterback, perhaps even moving him to tight end. It’s almost as if the oddsmakers want to lure you into taking the Cardinals.

Don’t buy it. Jurkovec was awful as the Panthers’ starter after transferring in from Boston College, completing only 50.9 percent of his passes, averaging a career-low 7.3 yards per attempt and throwing three interceptions. Christian Veilleux, himself a transfer from Penn State, will start against Louisville, and if he can provide even a tiny spark to an offense that was going nowhere under Jurkovec, the Panthers can keep this one close, in part because of a rushing defense that could limit Louisville running back Jawhar Jordan, who lit up Notre Dame for 143 yards and two scores. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks eighth nationally in rushing success rate and No. 17 in EPA per rushing play.

This is a good situational spot to fade Louisville. Not only are the Cardinals ready for a letdown after this past weekend’s program-defining win over the Fighting Irish, but Louisville has been much worse on the road than at home this season. The Cardinals have won their three home games by at least 13 points each but have outscored opponents by just 15 points total in three games away from home, and none of those foes (Georgia Tech, Indiana and North Carolina State) were exactly world-beaters. The Wolfpack, in fact, is a pretty similar team to Pitt in terms of SP+ ranking (N.C. State is 47th, the Panthers are 53rd) and the fact that it also leans on defense, and Louisville labored to a 13-10 win over the Wolfpack on Sept. 29, gaining only 20 rushing yards. I could see something similar happening against the Panthers.

Auburn at No. 22 LSU

7 p.m., ESPN

The pick: Auburn +11.5

Again, LSU had no business covering against Missouri this past weekend. Mizzou, somewhere around a touchdown underdog, led for large chunks of the game and was down 42-39 with the ball late in the fourth quarter when Major Burns intercepted Brady Cook and returned it for a touchdown with 34 seconds left, giving LSU the cover.

The fact remains that LSU’s defense is still quite bad. Missouri averaged 7.8 yards per play and running back Cody Schrader averaged 8.8 yards per carry, scoring three touchdowns. Auburn runs the ball on 63 percent of its offensive snaps, tops in the SEC and ranking seventh nationally, and most recently was seen averaging 5.1 yards per carry against Georgia, which otherwise hasn’t allowed any of its Football Bowl Subdivision opponents to average more than 3.31 yards per rush. If that’s what it can do against the Bulldogs, imagine what Auburn should be able to accomplish against an LSU rushing defense that ranks 120th in success rate and 122nd in EPA per play.

Auburn’s defense also is fairly stout, holding Georgia to only 3.6 yards per carry, and should pose more of a challenge to standout LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels than Missouri did. LSU Coach Brian Kelly said Daniels got “banged up” after taking a few hits against Mizzou, and while he’s not on any injury report, Daniels’s health is another reason to back Auburn here against an LSU team that isn’t all that trustable as a double-digit favorite.