Oregon State vs. Oregon prediction: College football odds, picks, best bets

All signs point to the Oregon Ducks on Friday night against in-state rival Oregon State.

Not only do the Ducks have the most complete team in the Pac-12, but they are also playing for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship and seeking revenge after the Beavers embarrassed them a season ago.

Playing at home with motivation, No. 6 Oregon should make a statement and cover the 13.5-point spread against No. 15 Oregon State.

(8:30 p.m. ET. FOX Sports)

A season ago, the Ducks blew a 21-point lead and couldn’t stop the Beavers as Oregon State ran the ball on 16 straight plays in the second half and dominated the game in the trenches.

This season, Oregon has improved on the defensive line, quarterback Bo Nix is a Heisman candidate, and the Ducks are firing on all cylinders.

Nix gets all the attention, but this is a balanced attack that can beat opponents in multiple ways.

The Ducks lead the conference in both yards (546) and points (46) per game and are second in both passing (350) and rushing (196) yards per game.

Nix has thrown for 816 yards and 10 touchdowns over the last two weeks, but the Beavers’ defense will be a bit of a step up in class.

Oregon State is allowing just 20.6 points per game, which is tied for fourth in the conference.

The Beavers are also allowing just 224 passing yards per game, which ranks second in the Pac-12.

While I don’t expect them to entirely shut down Nix, this is where Oregon’s balance comes into play as the rushing duo of Bucky Irving and Jordan James could be called upon in some key spots.

It’s also important to note that Oregon State’s defense ranks 130th in broken tackles allowed.

Conversely, Oregon’s offense is second nationally in creating broken tackles.

Oregon likes to get the ball to its playmakers in space, which could spell trouble and result in multiple explosive plays if Oregon State’s tackling issues persist.

On the other side of the ball, Oregon State still boasts a run-first attack, but quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has certainly elevated the offense.

The Beavers ran all over the Ducks a season ago, and although they’re still going to feature the run, Uiagalelei is capable of making plays in the passing game.

Oregon State is fourth in the conference with 36 points per game and is third in the Pac-12 with 192 rushing yards per game – a rushing attack that’s led by Damien Martinez, who is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and has run for 1,147 yards.

Additionally, Oregon State left guard Heneli Bloomfield got hurt last week against Washington and will miss this game.

That could hamper an Oregon State offense going up against an Oregon defense that ranks second in the conference in yards per game allowed (310) and is tied for first (16.7) in points per game allowed.

Perhaps most importantly in this matchup, Oregon ranks third in the conference in rush defense, allowing just 96.2 yards per game on the ground.

Part of that is the game script, as Oregon gets off to fast starts and forces opponents to try to pass their way back into the contest.

I expect Oregon State to stick to the run regardless, but if the Ducks can shut down the run, the Beavers will be in trouble.

Oregon has the better roster, home-field advantage, and revenge on its mind. 

Pick: Oregon -13.5 (-115, BetRivers)