College football coaches with most to prove during 2023 season
Many college football programs face pivotal seasons for various reasons and the same goes for coaches, a few still in their infancy at new programs while others watch their leashes continue to shorten. Massive buyouts tend to keep coaches employed longer than they should be at times, before boosters or decision-makers finally have seen enough and pull the plug.
In college football, job security changes on an annual basis. You're judged by how well you recruit and your win-loss record — and there's not much else that matters. Forward progress and staying nationally relevant are necessities if longevity is wanted.
Within the Power Five ranks, all of this is multiplied in the sizable TV revenue era. Coaches are paid to be successful, hire staffs that last and acquire talent leading to difference-making seasons. When this doesn't happen, they're placed under the microscope and each pending move is scrutinized. We're continuing that here.
Here are five coaches within the Power Five ranks who need to show forward progress this season.
Mario Cristobal, Miami
2022 record: 5-7
2023 outlook: Cristobal's fellow ACC coaches cannot seem to figure out why the Hurricanes struggled so badly last season despite a talented roster. Replacing both coordinators after your first season at a new program doesn't happen often, but Cristobal pointed the finger at those guys and feels like he made two strong hires as a result ahead of 2023. Most importantly, Miami needs to get quarterback Tyler Van Dyke back to 2021 form when he was the ACC's Rookie of the Year. Some of that is bad scheme and coaching, while the rest is likely a shake in confidence while everything imploded around him offensively.
There is no room for excuses during Year 2, however. Positive momentum needs to be shown given the investment Miami made in Cristobal, this staff and the roster. The Hurricanes took more than a dozen transfers from the portal this cycle and are expecting most of them to be heavy contributors, especially at the line of scrimmage and skill positions. Miami simply wasn't tough enough last fall, which is not indicative for Cristobal-coached teams. The expectation is a team that plays harder and is more fundamentally sound in all areas in the ACC.
Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M
2022 record: 5-7
2023 outlook: As of now, albeit early, there has been no return on Fisher signing the top-rated class in recruiting history during the 2022 cycle. And historically, a class comparable to the Aggies' monster haul last spring means at least one national championship over the next couple years. There's still time, but there's at least 10 programs with better playoff odds than Texas A&M right now given last season's disaster and a potential offensive overhaul with Bobby Petrino in tow. The 2023 season is critical for Fisher, regardless of his insane buyout and the money it would cost boosters to fire the once prized possession.
Fisher's made widescale changes to his coaching staff and enters the new season after his program hemorrhaged talent after more than two dozen players — many of them once rated four stars or higher — left for the transfer portal. The Aggies finished 9-1 during the 2020 campaign, finishing one win shy of their first final four appearance. Quarterback problems since have led to back to back disappointing seasons and Fisher hopes to stop the bleeding. He's 6-10 over his last 16 SEC games and hasn't earned his salaryas one of college football's highest-paid coaches. Fisher's 10-year, $75 million deal a few years ago was a market-setter at the time andhis extension in September 2021 increased Fisher'ssalary to $9 million last fall.
Billy Napier, Florida
2022 record: 6-7
2023 outlook: Napier's already shown proof of concept at Florida, which is often difficult to do in one season, with his team's hard-nosed, we're-going-to-try-and-pound-you up front mentality. However, the same physicality standard that benefited the Gators for much of the 2022 campaign failed to materialize down the stretch with three straight losses to end the season. Florida is among the"programs facing pivotal seasons in 2023," but there was no mention of a potential hot seat. Why? The phrase should not be mentioned yetfor a guy on a seven-year deal worth $51.8 million.Coaches are judged by their win-loss record and rightfully so, but it's oftenhowthose games play out that matters most. While facing roster limitations last fall, Napier coached his way to a 6-4 start through 10 games before the wheels came off. That stretch included victories over nationally-ranked Utah in the opener and a November destruction of South Carolina, which finished as one of the hottest teams in the country. Napier called Florida' 27-point bowl loss to Oregon State an "outlier" in the 2022 season,and there are glimmers of hope that he is correct in that assertion, at least to an extent.
Mel Tucker, Michigan State
2022 record: 5-7
2023 outlook: After the gift of a mega contract extension following 11 wins to cap the 2021 campaign with a top-10 finish, Michigan State's positive momentum evaporated under Tucker's watch. Tucker's had coaching staff turnover every offseason and coming out of spring, lost two of his best players to the transfer portal in quarterback Payton Thorne and wideout Keon Coleman. Combined with Jayden Reed's departure to the NFL, Michigan State's production at the position and big-play potential was cut in half this offseason.
Earlier this spring, Late Kick's Josh Pate headlined his "most to prove" list with Tucker out front, mentioning the Spartans got away from what they do best and didn't have the same mindset at the line of scrimmage this program showed the previous season.
“They had no run game,” Pate said. “They were 111th in rush yards per game. That’s how bad that rushing attack was, and this is one year removed from having Kenneth Walker, who (should have been) a Heisman finalist.”
How Michigan State lost was also damning during a forgettable season, including a failure to show up twice in East Lansing against Minnesota and Ohio State.
“You know how sometimes in college football we have these teams and they have bad years but a lot of the losses are close,” Pate said. “The whole, what was your record in one-possession games? You would think that if you had a team that was really good, and then they all of a sudden dropped down to 5-7, they just had bad ‘bounce of ball’ luck. That is not the case. Michigan State had seven losses and six of them were by double digits. So, the fact is, they weren’t close in a lot of games.”
Brent Venables, Oklahoma
2022 record: 6-7
2023 outlook: There is no hiding at Oklahoma and Brent Venables' first season with the Sooners went south in a hurry. Oklahoma's overhaul on defense is already taking place for a team whose bowl-season loss to FSU last fall clinched their first losing season since 1998. Signing a top-five recruiting class for 2023 is absolutely the best offseason news Oklahoma could have received, however. Not only did the program land five-star quarterback Jackson Arnold, who will be "the guy" in 2024, but the arrival of five-star flip Peyton Bowen, five-star edge Adepoju Adebawore and several immediate impact Day 1 starters in the transfer portal, including defensive end Dasan McCullough, were huge gets.
The Sooners gave up 461 yards per game and 30 points per game last season, their worst marks since the 2018 season under Lincoln Riley. And to rub salt in the wound, Oklahoma fans watched Riley show substantial Year 1 success at USC, where he finished one win shy of a conference championshipandCollege Football Playoff berth with the Trojans. You'd have to go back a couple of decades to find the last time Oklahoma was considered a darkhorse to win the Big 12, but this is where Venables stands this summer. After that, it's off to the SEC where the matchups are only going to get tougher.
The recruitment of Duncanville (Texas) High five-star edge rusher Colin Simmons is about to kick back into high gear this weekend as the blue-chipper takes his first official visit of the process to Miami.
The return trip to Coral Gables begins what will be an awesome summer for the coveted pass rusher who according to his mother Monica McCarley has also scheduled an official to Alabama the weekend of June 16 and Texas the weekend of June 23.
In addition to those three official visits, a return to Oregon is locked in for June 20 for what will be a three-day unofficial. Texas A&M will get the family back July 28 for their big barbecue they annually host for coveted recruits. That's also an unofficial.
“He wants to do more officials during the season,” McCarley added. “We don’t have those scheduled yet.
“He wants to do LSU and Florida.”
Tabbed by the 247Sports Composite as the No. 1 recruit in Texas and No. 1 edge rusher in the country, Simmons was last at LSU for the Tigers spring game.
“I love LSU,” McCarley said. “LSU feels like home.
“We got a chance to meet a few celebrities at LSU which was Joe Burrow, we also met Angel Reese and (Ja’Marr Chase). We saw all three of those people and that was a highlight. Also they gave us a full tour this time as well. I loved it. I was able to bring Colin’s friends with us and they also equally showed them a good time.”
This upcoming trip to Miami will be the second time the family has made it to Coral Gables this calendar year.
“The one takeaway from that visit I appreciated was we got a chance to sit down with Jason Taylor and watch Colin’s film and he was able to tell Colin everything he was doing wrong,” McCarley said. “I could appreciate that.”
Taylor is a guy Simmons could see himself playing for.
“Because he’s played the position Colin is playing currently it meant a lot,” McCarley said of the NFL Hall of Famer.
Simmons has always included Alabama in his lead group. He visited on a college tour last summer.
“He’s been saying mom I want to go back, we just haven’t been able to make that trip,” McCarley said. “He’s always wanted to go back.”
Texas has made sure the family knows how important Simmons is to them.
“I love the coaching staff at Texas,” McCarley said. “Sark is amazing. (Jeff) Banks is amazing. I got a chance to meet a lot of position coaches. Texas just shows a lot of love to us every time we go.”
Oregon has made a nice impression to date in this recruitment.
“I love Oregon,” McCarley said. “It’s a great place. The city is nice. We did a tour around campus. I want to walk the grounds. I want him to get a feel of the actual, we went in the spring there weren’t that many students around. I want to get a gut feeling about the place.”
Texas A&M is another program Simmons has kept under strong consideration.
“A&M has always been a top school for him as well,” McCarley said. “We visited A&M back in January of 2022 so I’m kind of excited to see what’s going on now. That was a year and a half ago almost. They’ve hired some new coaches. I want to get a feel for them as well.”
The one place McCarley hasn’t been yet is Florida. Simmons enjoyed his time there in the spring.
“He did say he loved the energy that the fans gave to the players,” McCarley said.
As electric a defensive player as there is in the country, Simmons racked up 79 tackles as a junior including 33 stops for loss and 22.5 sacks en route to a state championship. Simmons tallied another 45 quarterback hurries.
