College football national championship odds 2024-2025: Expanded playoffs add value to longshots

As the end of the college football season draws near, so does the end of an era. With the expansion of the CFP next season, 12 teams will qualify for playoff spots and have a shot at winning the national championship, making longshots more viable plays for bettors.  

A lot can happen before the 2024-2025 season begins next August/September. But if bettors pick the right team(s), they could find a few plays with lots of value.

Let's look at odds to win next season's college football national championship and offer up some favorites and longshots to consider.

NCAAF national championship odds, 2024-2025 season (FanDuel)

If you are having a hard time getting excited about the playoffs, it may be time for you to review the odds for next year. It is early, and quite a few things can impact national championship odds. But the odds for some of the usual suspects (i.e., Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, etc.) may never be higher.

Here are the odds for the top 25 teams listed on the FanDuel 2024-25 FBS national championship betting board:

• Georgia +480
• Alabama +550
• Ohio State +600
• Texas +850
• Michigan +1000
• Oregon +1100
• LSU +1400
• Florida State +1900
• Notre Dame +2200
• Clemson +2500
• Texas A&M +2600
• Penn State +2600
• Ole Miss +2600
• USC +3200
• Oklahoma +3500
• Washington +5000
• Tennessee +5000
• Miami (Florida) +7000
• Missouri +10000
• Louisville +10000
• Utah +10000
• Auburn +12000
• Arizona +12000
• Kansas State +12000
• Florida +13000

Since we do not know precisely how some teams will look in the wake of transfer portal losses and gains, along with graduation and the NFL Draft, it can be challenging to make an informed decision about who may win the national championship next year.

With that in mind, the following trends may help bettors make a decision:

• Early favorites rarely go on to win the national championship. Since 2001, only two have done so (Alabama in 2017 and USC in 2004).
• In CFP history (since 2014), the eventual national champion had +700 odds or shorter seven times.
• Alabama had the shortest preseason odds of the final four this season at +700, followed by Michigan (+1000), Texas (+2000), and Washington (+3000).
• Teams with early odds of +1000 or longer have won the national championship eight times since 2001.
• Longshot winners are rare, but they do happen:
  • 2002: Ohio State +1900
  • 2003: LSU +4000
  • 2010: Auburn +5000
  • 2014: Ohio State +4000
  • 2019: LSU +2500
• A first-year head coach has led his team to the national championship three times: Bennie Oosterbaan, Michigan (1948); Dennis Erickson, Miami (1989); Larry Coker, Miami (2001).
• Two first-year head coaches, Lincoln Riley and Sonny Dykes, took their team to the CFP semifinals.

Transfer Portal has decimated rosters

While it may be good for players, the transfer portal has made it more challenging for programs to build squads capable of contending for a national championship.

Of course, if teams recruit well, the losses will not have too much of an impact. But it is difficult to know that until teams take the field next season.

Several potential contenders have already been hit hard by the portal:

• Texas A&M, 19 players
• Ohio State, 15 players * including starting quarterback Kyle McCord
• Florida State, 15 players
• Georgia, 14 players
• Oklahoma, 13 players * including starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel
• Notre Dame, 13 players
• USC, 11 players

While the portal can undoubtedly take from teams, it can give just as well, helping teams fill holes left by players graduating, moving on to the NFL, or entering the portal.

CFB futures odds: Bets to consider for 2024-2025 season

Alabama +550

The Tide had a slow start this season, but they got it together and put themselves in position to play for the national championship this season. If they beat Michigan in the Rose Bowl, their odds will get shorter, and if they win the title...

Oregon +1100

Losing Bo Nix will be hard, but the Ducks will be fine at quarterback next season after getting Dillon Gabriel out of the portal.

Florida State +1900

The Seminoles have a huge question mark at quarterback, but they have added some impressive weapons around whoever it is, like former Florida running back Trevor Etienne, Vanderbilt wide receiver London Humphreys, etc.

Notre Dame +2200

Riley Leonard didn’t light up the scoreboard and stat sheet at Duke, but he is a playmaker who can help the Fighting Irish become a contender next season.

Utah +10000

The Utes will have some work to do replacing players lost to the portal, graduation, and NFL. But the bones of a solid defense remain and Utah will have one of the best quarterbacks in the nation guiding the offense, Cameron Rising.

Colorado +27000

They became a popular wager after an early win streak to start the Deion Sanders Era before everything cam crashing down. But Sanders has hit the portal hard looking for offensive and defensive line help.

With his son coming back and a solid group of skill position players, if the line plays improves on both sides of the ball, the Buffs could become legitimate contenders.