College Football Odds and Best Bets: Michigan vs Penn State Prediction, Ole Miss vs Georgia Prediction (Saturday, Nov. 11)
This Saturday’s college football slate is loaded.
But the best games of the day are Michigan vs Penn State and Ole Miss vs Georgia.
So, naturally, our two favorite college football best bets and predictions are on the best two games of the day.
Read on for a breakdown of both games and predictions.
Michigan vs Penn State prediction: Analysis
I loved Penn State entering the season. This roster is loaded, especially on defense, and I thought highly-touted quarterback recruit Drew Allar would push this team to the next level.
After the Nittany Lions destroyed their first six cupcake opponents, I loved them catching five points against Ohio State.
It was gut-check time for Allar and Co., and I thought they were ready. While Allar and the offense hadn’t shown much, mainly relying on a simple rushing attack and a short passing attack, I believed they were keeping the playbook close to the chest. Penn State would open it up in the biggest game of the year.
I was wrong. And very disappointed.
While the defense met expectations, holding Ohio State to only 286 yards passing and 79 yards rushing, the offense never kicked it into gear. Allar tried to throw it downfield, with 16 of his 37 attempts going beyond the sticks, but he completed only six for 100 yards.
James Franklin and Mike Yurcich would never beat the Big Ten powerhouses with inside runs and screen passes. And they may have finally learned their lesson in that game, as the offense is finally attacking downfield.
Allar recorded his highest single-game average depth of target (10.9) on the season against Indiana in Week 9, throwing for 210 yards and three scores.
Then, Allar shredded Maryland on the road in Week 10, recording his highest single-game yards per attempt mark since Week 1 (7.1) while adding four touchdowns on four big-time throws and no turnover-worthy plays.
I waited all season to see throws like this, and we’ve gotten them the past two weeks.
Transfer wide receiver Dante Cephas also made his move last week, nabbing six receptions with two scores. He’s an explosive downfield weapon but hadn’t recorded more than two catches in any game this year. Perhaps this is a sign that Yurcich and Franklin are finally ready to unleash the offense.
So, it’s round two of gut-check time, and I’m buying back in on the Nittany Lions.
I’m ready to get hurt again.
Penn State’s defense is elite. They’re second in EPA per Play allowed and first in Success Rate allowed. The secondary is swarming, and the front seven ranks third nationally in pressure rate (42.5%). Also, that unit will get Amin Vanover and Chop Robinson back from injury this week.
Michigan’s numbers are elite, and Big Blue boasts an elite roster. But the Wolverines have played nobody. They’ve been at least a three-score favorite against all nine opponents.
So, while quarterback JJ McCarthy and Co. are playing exceptionally well, this will be a significant step up in competition. In fact, it’ll be Michigan’s first real test of the season, and it’s coming on the road in a hostile environment.
I could see Michigan struggling to kick it into high gear here, similar to how Penn State struggled to do the same against Ohio State.
Meanwhile, I think Allar and Co. are ready to elevate their play and spark the explosive passing game against a defense that might not be ready.
I’ll take the points with the home ‘dog, even if somewhat reluctantly.
Michigan vs Penn State prediction: Pick
Penn State +4.5 (-105) at FanDuel | Play to +4 (-110)
Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction: Analysis
Georgia has always been known as this elite defensive team.
Yet, the story this year is different.
The 2023 Georgia Bulldogs rank seventh nationally in EPA per Play and 10th in Success Rate.
Quarterback Carson Beck has snuck up to seventh among qualified FBS quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’s passing grades and eighth in total EPA. He’s settled in as QB1 in Athens, recording four 300-yard games in his past six tries.
Even with superstar tight end Carson Beck injured, Beck, with wideouts Ladd McConkey and Dominic Lovett, should exploit a mediocre Ole Miss defense.
It’s also a great matchup for Beck. The Rebels run a lot of Cover-3 and Quarters under first-year defensive coordinator Paul Golding, and Beck is among the best quarterbacks in the nation against those looks. Among qualified FBS quarterbacks, Beck has the second-most passing yards, third-most yards per attempt, seventh-highest completion rate and third-most EPA against Cover-3 and Cover-4 looks.
Conversely, Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins has a solid matchup against Georgia.
The Bulldogs rush defense has been surprisingly leaky this season. They’re 10th among SEC teams in broken plus missed tackle rate (11.8%) and seventh in EPA per Rush allowed.
Meanwhile, Judkins is one of the toughest and most elusive running backs in FBS, ranking 10th nationally in missed tackles forced and 15th in yards after contact. No SEC running back has a higher broken plus missed tackle rate than Judkins.
Judkins can move the ball on the Bulldogs, setting up the deadly Lane Kiffin play-action passing game, where Jaxson Dart thrives. The Rebels quarterback has the second-most play-action passing yards in country, trailing only Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel.
Both offenses have solid schematic advantages, so I expect a high-scoring affair.
The Action Network’s PRO model projects there will be well over 60 points in this game, so there’s good value on Over 58.
Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction: Pick
Over 58 (-110) at Caesars | Play to 60 (-110)
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