College Football Picks: TCU Looks to Maintain CFP Spot

TCU maintained its hold on the fourth playoff spot with a statement 17-10 win at the rival Texas Longhorns. The Horned Frogs clinched a berth in the Big 12 Championship game. They play Baylor on Saturday and then host Iowa State in conference title game, which is a must-win game for them.

TCU is ranked No.4 in the nation and is going on the road to take on Baylor Bears. TCU has covered the spread in four consecutive games. Baylor is coming off a 31-3 home loss to Kansas State and failed to cover the 2.5-point spread.

Predictive models predict a 30-27.5 TCU win over Baylor. TCU has a high probability of scoring 27 points and having the same or more turnovers than their opponent in the past five seasons. Baylor has an even higher probability when scoring less than 27 and with fewer than 11 turnovers.

TCU is 3-16 SU and 2-17 ATS in games scoring 27 or fewer points and having the same or more turnovers than their opponent in the past five seasons. Baylor is 26-6 SU (81%) and 23-8-1 AATS (74%) when allowing 27 points or less.

There is a current total of 57.5 points. Betting strategy is to bet on Baylor with 50% of the bet size at +2. 5 points and then look for TCU to score the first touchdown.

TCU is looking to maintain CFP spot this weekend.

Houston and East Carolina are playing for the CFP spot.