College football picks: UTSA vs. Tulane prediction, odds, spread, game preview, AAC Championship implications

We have an AAC showdown with major conference title game implications this afternoon as the UTSA Roadrunners head down to New Orleans to meet the No. 23 Tulane Green Wave. The game will kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and will air nationally on ABC.

UTSA (8-3, 7-0 AAC) is led on offense by explosive quarterback Frank Harris, who passed for 523 yards and six touchdowns through the air along with 112 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in their win over South Florida last week. Harris, who missed some time earlier this season with a turf toe, has thrown for more than 2,300 yards and 17 touchdowns this season, while adding 295 yards rushing. The Roadrunners have won by an average of 18.9 points during their current seven game winning-streak.

Tulane (10-1, 7-0 AAC) is led by quarterback Michael Pratt, who went 21-for-28 for 252 yards and two touchdowns last week in Tulane’s win over FAU last week (he finished the game with 9,239 career passing yards, which is a new Tulane record). Last year Pratt led the Green Wave to a 27-24 win over Cincinnati in their final AAC regular season game before leading them to wins over UCF in the league title game and USC in the Cotton Bowl. The Green Wave have been walking a tightrope late in the season with four of their last five wins coming by one score.

SP+ Rankings

UTSA: 45 overall, 33 offense, 66 defense
Tulane: 48 overall, 59 offense, 37 defense

Injury update

UTSA

RB Kevorian Barnes - Questionable (undisclosed)
WR Willie McCoy - Questionable (neck)

Tulane

WR Lawrence Keys - Questionable (neck)WR Jha’Quan Jackson - Questionable (ankle)

RB Shaddie Clayton-Johnson - Questionable (undisclosed)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

UTSA: 5-6 ATS
Tulane: 4-7 ATS

Total in 2023

UTSA: Over 4-6-1
Tulane: Over 2-9

Team Pace

UTSA: 2.44 plays per minute of offense
Tulane: 2.02 plays per minute of offense

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Tulane -3.5
Total: 52
Moneyline: Tulane -175, UTSA +145

Opening line: Tulane -2.5
Opening total: 52.5

Weather

Our Best Bet for UTSA vs. Tulane

UTSA +3.5

I love UTSA as the road underdog here. Harris seems to be fully healthy and able to run the playbook the ways he wants with no limitations, while their defense has been holding its own lately. While it’s tough to bet against a Tulane team that’s been the best Group of 5 team over the past two years, the Roadrunners have an explosive offense and their offensive line has only allowed 20 sacks all season. Back the Roadrunners on the road.