UTSA vs. Tulane Prediction, Preview, and Odds
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UTSA (8-3 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 7-0 AAC) faces No. 24 Tulane (10-1 SU, 4-7 ATS, 7-0 AAC) in a battle of AAC supremacy from Yulman Stadium in New Orleans on Friday at 3:30pmET. These two teams along with SMU are tied for first place in the AAC. However, the winner of this game likely will meet in the American Athletic Conference title game, but there are numerous scenarios to break the tiebreakers for each team explained here.
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Roadrunners on a roll
Tulane has become a power in the AAC, but UTSA just got here after dominating Conference USA. In fact, the Roadrunners have won 15 straight regular season conference games and 17 straight including the 2021 and 2021 Conference USA Championship Games. On Nov. 17, they dominated another conference foe in USF, crushing them 49-21 at home as a 14-point home favorite.
Frank Harris was brilliant for UTSA with 411 yards passing (31 of 46) for three TDs and also has 112 yards rushing with three more scores. to help the Roadrunners set a school record with 643 yards of total offense. His 523 yards of total offense broke his old record of 445 set last season and his 523 tot yards was the second-highest mark for an FBS player this season.
Harris missed two games this season due to injuries and has still thrown for 2,308 yards with 17 TDs and six picks. He has 295 rushing yards and four TDs. His top receiver has been Joshua Cephas, who has 76 catches for 966 yards and nine TDs to rank tied for 12th in the nation in receptions.
Overall, UTSA ranks 36th in yards per game (429.1ypg) and 48th in passing yards (254.5ypg) with 174.6 rushing yards per game and 33.1 points per contest (29th). Defensively, they struggle against the pass (241.3ypc) and rank 99th> They are solid against the run, allowing 129.5ypg.
Defense rules
Tulane is a lot different that UTSA. They win with defense and in their eight straight wins, five come by double digits and three of their last four games came by just seven points combined. On Nov. 18, their defense was dominant as they shut down FAU 24-8 on the road as a 9-point favorite. QB Michael Pratt completed 21 of 28 passes for 252 yards and two TDs. He now has thrown for 9,239 passing yards to break Patrick Ramsey's school record.
The defense held the Owls to just 32 rushing yards and held them from the end zone until there were 8:58 left in the game. The issue this season and lately, has been the offense. A bit part of the problem has been injuries, especially at the receiving corps. Lawrence Keys III leads the Green Wave with 599 yards receiving (33 catches) with seven TDs. He's questionable for this game with a foot injury, while Jha'Quan Jackson (24 catches for 421 yds) is also questionable with an ankle injury. Pratt has dealt with his own injury issues and has played nine of 11 games, passing for 2,043 yards with 19 TDs and four INTs. He's also run for 271 yards with four TDs. The key is for Makhi Hughes to get it going in the running game (1,080 yds, 6 TDs, 5.2ypc).
Defensively, Tulane allows just 323.9 yards per game (25th) and just 77.2 rushing yards (4th) with 18.5 points per game (18th). The main issue on defense is that they allow 246.2 passing yards (110th) per game. Offensively, they are very pedestrian, averaging 229.8 passing yards per game (61st) and will need some healthy receivers or their will be relying on the defense and ground attack.
Best Bets for this Game
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They say defense wins championships, but you need a semblance of an offense. In this case, Tulane will need a passing game, because UTSA ranks 40th against the run. The fact that Harris is now healthy and that Tulane has two of their top three receivers banged-up and may not play in this game. That will make the Green Wave one-dimensional and easier to stack the box against a good, but not great ground attack. Harris is finally healthy for the Roadrunners and he'll be the difference in this one as a passer and runner.
Prediction: UTSA
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One team can score (UTSA) and the other has averaged just over 20 points per game in their last three contests (Tulane), but won all three. That's the only way to win this game and that's to keep the game low-scoring. Tulane is not going to beat UTSA in a shootout so they need to run the ball and keep time of possession. The Green Wave have gone under in nine of their last 10 games. UTSA has gone under in four of their last six.
Prediction: Under 52
Ben has been a sports writer for over 35 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for nearly 30 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13! Ben has had great success in handicapping college football, the NFL, college basketball, the NBA and MLB for 27+ years. His Twitter handle is @BenHayesWAW
