College Football Picks Week 5: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
The Vanderbilt Commodores have been the best team to fade during the 2023 college football season.
Vanderbilt enters its Week 5 matchup against the Missouri Tigers with an 0-5 record against the spread.
Missouri just cracked the AP Top 25 and it should put up some big numbers on a Vanderbilt defense that has not been good in 2023.
The Kentucky Wildcats, who beat Vanderbilt last week, face a much tougher matchup on Saturday against the Florida Gators.
Florida is the ranked team in the matchup, but Kentucky is a slight favorite in Lexington.
Kentucky has been consistent so far this season, and it has a chance to claim the No. 2 spot in the SEC East behind the Georgia Bulldogs if it beats the Gators.
For the latest lines on these games, go to DraftKings.
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Vanderbilt's defense is the primary reason why it sits at 2-3 overall and 0-5 ATS.
The Commodores conceded over 35 points in their last three games, and they allowed over 40 points in their last two losses.
Clark Lea's team opened SEC play with a brutal home performance against Kentucky in which it was down by two touchdowns by the end of the first quarter.
Missouri can force Vandy into a similar deficit with its offense, led by quarterback Brady Cook.
The Tigers are averaging 433.8 total yards per game and they scored over 30 points in three of their four victories.
Cook should be able to carve up the Vanderbilt secondary from the start, which would put Vandy in a position to chase.
Vandy did not play well while facing a multi-score deficit last week against Kentucky, so it could be in for a similar result at home against Missouri.
Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN
Kentucky's first true test of the 2023 season comes in the form of Florida.
The Wildcats have flown under the radar so far in September because of an easy schedule.
Mark Stoops' team usually carries over the same identity from year to year. It runs the ball well, plays strong defense and its status is elevated when a strong quarterback comes along.
NC State transfer Devin Leary has 1,060 passing yards and nine touchdown through his first four games at Kentucky.
He has outperformed Graham Mertz, Florida's transfer quarterback from Wisconsin, who only has four scoring throws through the air.
Florida's biggest threat comes from running back Trevor Etienne, but he is going up against a Kentucky defense that allows 77.5 rushing yards per contest.
Kentucky is programmed to contain Etienne, and if it does that, it carries a slight edge with Leary at quarterback.
A home win should vault Kentucky into the Top 25 and it would set up a ranked SEC East matchup with the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs next Saturday.
Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN2
The Tulane Green Wave should cruise to their fourth win of the season against the UAB Blazers.
UAB comes into New Orleans conceding 430 total yards per game and off three straight concessions in the 40s.
The Blazers have not kept up with their opponents in Trent Dilfer's first year as head coach, and they could take another walloping in Week 5.
Tulane's defense is the key to the 21.5-point spread covering. The Green Wave held their last two opponents to single-digit point totals and they give up over 130 fewer total yards per game than UAB.
A big win from the Green Wave could set them on the edge of the Top 25 going into October.
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