NCAAF Week 5 Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

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27 September 2023

NCAAF Week 5 Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

The Utah Utes are undefeated using a third-string quarterback, but how long can they sustain that success? The Oregon State Beavers are in search of getting back to the win column, and our college football picks expect them to do so in Week 5.

There’s a terrific Friday night Pac-12 matchup on tap in Week 5 as the seemingly indestructible Utah Utes visit the Oregon State Beavers.

These are two teams with conference championship aspirations and both play a similar brand of football, so it figures to be a hard-fought, high-level game. Utah remains undefeated despite playing with a third-string quarterback while dealing with numerous other injuries.

Oregon State will look to pick itself off the mat after a disappointing 38-35 loss on the road at Washington State a week ago. Looking at college football odds, the Beavers are favored to get back in the win column.

Read on for my best bet and full college football picks for Utah vs. Oregon State on Friday, September 29.

Utah vs Oregon State best odds

Utah vs Oregon State picks and predictions

This is an interesting line because the Oregon State Beavers are -3.5 favorites despite coming off a bad road loss, and now face an undefeated team that also happens to be the reigning back-to-back conference champs.

The Utah Utes may have the best unit on the field thanks to a stout defense, but Oregon State has been the much more balanced team this season. The Beavers rank 15th in EPA per play on both offense and defense in an impressive display of well-roundedness.

We’ve seen enough of quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei to know that he’s not perfect, but he is a capable signal caller who can run this offense effectively. He has a big arm, decent athleticism, is a rushing threat, and has the advantage of playing behind one of the nation’s best offensive lines.

The Utes wrecked shop against UCLA’s front last week, collecting 8.5 tackles for loss and 7 sacks. Defensive end Jonah Elliss was an absolute terror, living in the Bruins’ backfield and racking up 10 tackles — five tackles for loss — and 3.5 sacks. While that was an undeniably impressive display I don’t exactly expect a repeat here on the road against a stout Oregon State front.

The Beavers are a Joe Moore contender and have played like it thus far with four of five starters returning from a strong group a year ago. They keep Uiagalelei clean in the pocket and defenders out of the backfield. Tackles Taliese Fuaga and Joshua Gray both made the All-Pac-12 Second Team last year and have pro futures as two of the best in the conference at their position.

When Utah has the ball, it’ll likely be led by third-string QB Nate Johnson. It’s unclear when or if stars Cam Rising and Brant Kuithe will return, and coach Kenny Dillingham is notoriously tight lipped when talking about player availability to the media. It was rumored that Rising would play last week against the Bruins but that didn't come to fruition. Even if he does suit up, Rising will be rusty and limited.

A former track star in high school, Johnson has not shown the ability to throw the football at a high level yet and that makes this offense one-dimensional. The Beavers are too well-coached defensively under Trent Bray to allow many points to a predictable Utah offense averaging 22.2 ppg and 322.5 total yards on 4.9 yards per play.

To make things even worse, starting running back Ja’Quinden Jackson was banged up yet again last week and has not been healthy all year, meaning the Utes may be down their top two running backs considering Micah Bernard is out for the year.

By my count, Utah could be without its Top 2 QBs, Top 2 RBs, and top tight end. The Utes have managed to scrape by this season, but now hit the road to face a balanced Oregon State team that will be hungry coming off a loss and will be playing in a wild environment at Reser Stadium in the first home game in which students are back.

I’ll take the Beavers

My best bet: Oregon State (-3.5 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Utah vs Oregon State same-game parlay

Oregon State -3.5

Under 44.5

This two-leg SGP is centered around my best bet on Oregon State against the spread. I’ll go ahead and add the Under 44.5 as my second leg considering I’m a fan of that angle as well and hotly debated making that my best bet for this contest.

Utah is too one-dimensional offensively for me to forecast any other game environment than a low-scoring slobber knocker. The offense checks in at 113th in EPA per play, 101st in success rate, and 104th in explosiveness.

The Utes haven’t been able to consistently move the chains and also offer little to no big-play threat, so it’s fairly easy for opposing defenses to lead the box and limit their productivity. When Oregon State has the ball, it’ll be hard-pressed to find an offensive explosion against a Utah defense surrendering just 9.5 ppg while ranking fourth nationally in both EPA per play and success rate.

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Utah vs Oregon State spread and Over/Under analysis

Oregon State opened as a -1.5 favorite but has since moved across a key number and now sits at -3.5 across all locations. The total has been bet down from 46 at open to 44.5 at current.

I’m in agreement with both line movements as I fancy both the Beavers ATS and the Under. It doesn’t feel great playing the number above three points in what could be a close and hard-fought game, but I do have enough confidence in the more well-rounded team playing at home and therefore am still comfortably laying the points.

Utah has survived thus far thanks to its dominant physicality and playing consistent, well-coached football. That brand works against many teams, especially in the Pac-12, and it overwhelmed Chip Kelly’s Bruins last week. However, Jonathan Smith’s program has closely resembled what Whittingham has done in Salt Lake City.

There are a ton of similarities between these two teams and this is probably the best version of the Beavers we’ve seen to date, so I’d be surprised if they aren’t up to the challenge physically and hold their own — and more — in all facets of the game.

As for the total, Utah already struggles to move the ball and now faces a defense that has been Top 15 so far. The Beavers are strong up front but weak in the secondary, which makes them a perfect match for Utah because the Utes do not have the passing attack to expose these deficiencies like Washington State did a week ago. Oregon State looks to slow the game down to halt on offense and that could be the case again this week.