College Football Week 0 picks: Upset alert for Notre Dame

College Football is officially back this week. 

I’ve grabbed early-week lines for two Week 0 games, both big Saturday underdogs, and I recommend you grab these lines immediately before they move. 

Central Michigan +14.5 vs. Michigan State

I think Central Michigan could come out of nowhere to win the MAC this year.

They were severely unlucky with injury, turnover and close-game luck last season, and coach Jim McElwain is a solid Group of Five coach known for making big year-over-year turnarounds.

The defense should be elite, given there are 10 returning starters, including the conference’s best secondary. 

The offense is hard to project. 

I’m hoping the Chips start quarterback Bert Emanuel, given his athleticism and rushing ability – he rushed for 466 yards and seven touchdowns over the Chips’ final three games last year. 

Emanuel will have three returning offensive line starters, including both tackles, which can open rushing lanes.

Either way, I’m much higher on Central Michigan than I am on Michigan State. 

The Spartans’ roster is razor thin. 

They lost quarterback Payton Thorne to the portal, leaving a bunch of backups to battle for the starting spot. 

They lost their top two wide receivers and there’s no depth at that position. 

They lost 58 percent of their offensive line starts. 

They lost three of their top four tacklers and their two best defensive backs from a defense that ranked sub-100 in every important metric last season.

This team is going to be bad, and I think Mel Tucker’s 2021 season was a facade.

I’m high on Central Michigan and low on Michigan State for this season. So, it’s only natural I bet the former against the latter against the spread in Week 0.

Our Action Network Analytics team shows huge value on the Chips here, projecting Michigan State as only a five-point favorite. 

Try and bet this line before it drops under two touchdowns.

Betting on College Football?

Navy +20.5 vs. Notre Dame

The Midshipmen return 78 percent of offensive line snaps and 84 percent of rushing yards from last year’s squad, meaning their triple-option attack should be a well-oiled machine in 2023. 

Meanwhile, Notre Dame is going through turnover in their defensive front seven. 

The Irish return less than 35 percent of pressures and stops from last year’s team, including their top three pressure creators (Isaiah Foskey, Jayson Ademilol, and Justin Ademilola). 

And it’s not like Notre Dame was a good rush defense last season. The Irish finished 58th nationally in success rate allowed and 103rd in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed against the run. 

I could see Navy rushing all over Notre Dame’s defense in this one, similar to how Marshall did in the non-con last year. 

I expect Notre Dame to improve offensively underneath new offensive coordinator Gerard Parker and new quarterback Sam Hartman, but the transition won’t happen overnight. I expect it could take a few weeks for the new system to take shape. 

Ultimately, this game projects as a lower-scoring grinder, where Navy dominates the time of possession with long rush-heavy drives that eat up clock and keep Hartman off the field. 

It’s hard to cover big numbers against service academies, anyway, given the triple-option attack shortens games and keeps final scores from getting too lopsided.

Air Force, Navy and Army are a combined 20-10-1 against the spread as two-touchdown-or-more underdogs since 2006.