College Football Week 10 Best Bets: Michigan vs Purdue, Air Force vs Army, and More!

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down three totals and why you should be backing the Unders.

Army at Air Force (-18.5): O/U 33.0

Dating back to 2012, the Under is 29-3-1 and is 13-1-1 since 2018 between service Academy schools. We are 1-0 this season and this is the second of the third between service schools.

In the past nine meetings, since 2014, Army and Air Force combined for 31 or fewer points in seven out of nine matchups with 43 and 35 points in the two Overs.

Last season was a 13-7 finish and 31 or less points were scored in five out of the previous six meetings.

Air Force ranks top 50 in most defensive categories such as red zone defense, total defense, points allowed, third-down percentage, and more. Army’s offense ranks 100th or worse in third-down percentage, total yards, passing offense, and red zone offense.

Army ranks 24th in time of possession and Air Force is 1st, so expect both teams to control the clock and much like the previous matchup, finish below 30 points.

I played the Under 33.0 at -110 odds and would go down to 31.5 for 1.5 units.

Purdue at Michigan (-32.5): O/U 48.5

We missed Michigan’s defense last week, but while the Wolverines enjoyed the bye week, Purdue was embarrassed 31-14 at Nebraska.

The Boilermakers offense put up 195 total yards off offense versus the Cornhusker and averaged 3.0 yards per pass attempt. Purdue scored 14 or fewer points in three straight games versus Iowa, Ohio State, and Nebraska, so Michigan should be just fine with the extra prep time.

Purdue has scored 16 or fewer points in four of the last five meetings versus Michigan and this is the best defense of that era, plus the worst for the Boilermakers’ in that span.

Michigan has held every opponent to 10 or less points and seven or fewer in seven out of eight this season. I like Purdue to score seven or fewer points at Michigan, so I took the Under 7.5 at -142 odds on Purdue’s Team Total.

Iowa (-5) vs. Northwestern: O/U 31.0

Iowa and Northwestern meet at Wrigley Field, home of the Major League Baseball’s Chicago Cubs for a neutral field Big 10 game. The total is set at 30.5 for the lowest total of the season, again, and we are going Under, again.

Iowa has scored 12 combined points in their two losses and 71 total points in the last five games for 14.2 points per game. Iowa scored 20, 15, and 0 points in its three road games for 11.6 ppg.

Northwestern is 0-3 on the road this season with 7, 9, and 14 points scored for 10.0 ppg against Rutgers, Duke, and Nebraska.

Iowa and Northwestern rank 20th and 21st in passing defense, top 50 in total defense, and the Hawkeyes at superb in red zone defense.

However, both offenses rank outside the top 50 in almost everything and Iowa’s offense ranks 129th in third-down offense (26.4%), 128th in passing offense (116.5 yards), and 118th in scoring offense (19.5 ppg).

The loser in this series scored 10 or less points in five of the previous six matchups and the total combined points were 29 or fewer in four of those games.

These are two of the worst offenses in the country, so let’s roll with the Under. I played the Under 31.0 and 30.5 at -110 odds. I’d go down to 30.0.

Season Record: 48-29-1 (62.3%) +17.8 units

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