College Football Week 6 Best Bets: Michigan vs Minnesota, Nebraska vs Illinois

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s playing two Big Ten matchups between Michigan at Minnesota and Nebraska at Illinois.

Michigan (-19.5) at Minnesota: O/U 46.5

Michigan’s defense has allowed three total touchdowns (1st) through five games and three made field goals for 5.7 points per game, an NCAA-best.

The Wolverines defense held every opponent to seven or fewer points in all five games and Nebraska to seven points in Michigan’s first road game.

Minnesota scored 34 and 35 points in the past two games versus Northwestern and Louisiana Lafayette, but will not sniff anything near that here.

The Gophers scored 13 points versus Rutgers and North Carolina, a total they should be closer to, but not reach against Michigan. The Wolverines own the 20th-ranked third-down defense (31.7%) and No. 1 red-zone defense (37.5%). Minnesota will struggle.

I played the Minnesota Team Total Under 13.5 at -106 odds and would shop around and every book offers different odds or lines. I’d risk 1.5 units out to -130 odds.

Nebraska at Illinois (-3.5): O/U 43.0

Nebraska scored 22 or more points in four-straight meetings against Illinois until last season (Illinois won 26-9), which was Bret Bielma’s best defensive squad in years, plus the final season of Scott Foster at Nebraska.

This year’s Illini defense is suspect and should provide the Cornhuskers with an opportunity at multiple touchdowns and red zone drives.

Illinois ranks 102nd in scoring defense at 30.6 points per game, 109th in rushing defense (179.6 rushing ypg), and 99th in red-zone defense with 88.5% of opponents’ red-zone chances resulting in points.

The Cornhuskers scored 10 and 14 points in the two road losses at Minnesota and Colorado, but this is a much better challenge and environment.

In addition, Nebraska QB Heinrich Haarberg has been under center for three consecutive games (35, 28, 7 points scored) and should find a groove here following the Michigan game.

I grabbed the Cornhuskers Team Total of Over 19.5 at -125 odds. I like the chances this offense looks competent against Illinois.

Season Record: 27-18 (60%) +7.77 units

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