College Football Week 11 Picks, Daily Fantasy: FSU vs. Miami, Michigan vs. Penn State, Ole Miss vs. Georgia and more

Believe it or not, it is still hurricane season in the Atlantic region even though by this time of the year things are really winding down.

That of course is a pattern for the meteorological hurricane season, but it also applies to the Miami Hurricanes of late. Look out in August and September, you never know what to expect in October and things go back to largely quiet in November.

This year, the slide comes from the injuries and loss of confidence from QB Tyler Van Dyke.

Most hurricanes are drawn to the poles (or polls in this football analogy), but the Canes largely offensive struggles have left them in a steering current destined for something like Gator Bowl.

Now, don’t get me wrong. They’re certainly an overall better football team than the one that Florida State devoured in Miami Gardens last season. And they will be hungry looking for a win that they can plant their double red flags on this season. But if FSU’s offensive weapons are healthy, these Canes will be just a standard fish storm — in pictures, they look great in pictures but really they’re nothing more than flash that won’t threaten much of anything.

Week 10 was a huge bounce back week for me as I rolled off a 7-3 win to counteract the 3-7 week just seven days before. That puts us at 53-54 on the season and hopefully on the positive side of the ledger after Saturday.

The comment section winner was MexiNole who matched me pick for pick and delivered a 7-3 week. It’s the first win of the season for MexiNole. Congratulations and welcome to the Comment Section Hall of Fame!

• Week Zero: MexiNole and Topnole (5-2)
• Week One: Yapo.SD and Topnole (7-3)
• Week Two: Kylefsu02 (7-3)
• Week Three: Kylefsu02 and Ukedadnole (7-3)
• Week Four: trojan24man and Brian (7-3)
• Week Five: NoleInAggieland (7-3)
• Week Six: medav (8-2)
• Week Seven: csfuu (9-1)
• Week Eight: 85 Chief and JGsped (7-3)
• Week Nine: mr_britt (8-2)
• Week Ten: MexiNole and Brian (7-3)

Could you be the next of the season? Leave your picks to the 10 games below in the comment section at the bottom of the page. You have to pick the 10 games I provided to be eligible for the Hall as those are the only ones I grab. Most correct is our winner.

On the DFS side, my co-host on the Sharpen the Point podcast — Chris Tyndall — continues putting together some great insights. Some surprise Saturday injuries limited the upside for Jordan Travis as Keon Coleman was a surprise scratch and Jawhar Jordan suited up but played limited snaps for Louisville. But the James Madison-Georgia State game stack was a win especially JMU QB Jordan McCloud.

Want to get more details on those picks? Listen to the Sharpen the Point podcast, where we talk in-depth on game picks as well as the Daily Fantasy Sports contests on DraftKings each weekend. New to DFS? We can help you through the thought process of building a team.

Reminder that we are just two guys with keyboards and microphones, not gambling professionals, so follow at your own risk and play responsibly.

Let’s get to the ATS and DFS picks. All lines and DFS pricing from our friends at DraftKings.

Brian’s College Football Week 11 Picks

No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (-5.5) at No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions (Noon ET, FOX)

Brian’s Pick: Penn State +5.5

No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5) at Kentucky Wildcats (Noon ET, ESPN)

My friends, this is a classic letdown spot for Alabama. Last week, Alabama put up 42 at home against LSU. Everyone believes they are a juggernaut again. But I warned you in this article that LSU was missing three corners and their best DT. It would always be a shootout. Kentucky doesn’t have the offense LSU has, but their defense is better. An early start on the road after a big win at home? Let em down, Tide.

Brian’s Pick: Kentucky +11.5

Miami Hurricanes (+14.5) at No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Brian’s Pick: Florida State -14.5

No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers (-1.5) at No. 14 Missouri Tigers (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

Missouri looked pretty damn good in a loss at Georgia last week. With Luther Burden out there, they were toe-to-toe with Georgia on the road. If he suits up this week, I love them at home against a Tennessee team that hasn’t impressed me.

Brian’s Pick: Missouri +1.5

No. 18 Utah Utes (+9.5) at No. 5 Washington Huskies (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX)

I’ve mentioned Utah as the toughest team in the Pac-12 and Washington feels ripe for the picking the last few weeks. I’ve gone back and forth on this one the last few weeks. If Washington can hit the deep shots, it’s over early. If not, Utah can win this game. My Pac-12 rule has been take the home team so I’ll stick with it here to break the tie.

Brian’s Pick: Washington -9.5

No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5) at UCF Knights (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

The Cowboys have quickly jumped from a team that got blasted by South Alabama at home to the second best team in the Big12. Leaning on Ollie Gordon II and the switch to Alan Bowman has made the Cowboys a much stronger team. I think they end up winning the Big12 at this rate, but this spread is one of those interesting ones this weekend. It seems like oddsmakers aren’t buying the Cowboys. Maybe that has to do with the South Alabama game. It’s not pushing me off Okie State.

Brian’s Pick: Oklahoma State -2.5

No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels (+10.5) at No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)

A week ago I picked against both of these teams and I felt really good about it. Now, they face each other with a large enough spread for me to be unsure where to go. Ultimately, Ole Miss is a team that needs to run the ball successfully to stay on schedule and win. On the road, I like UGA’s defense to bottle that up. Plus, Carson Beck has really taken a step forward as the year has gone along.

Brian’s Pick: Georgia -10.5

No. 7 Texas Longhorns (-11.5) at TCU Horned Frogs (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Every step forward for TCU this season has led to another step back. Of course, the first one was a big step back against Colorado. Since then, they started to look better before getting blasted by Kansas State and getting run all over by Texas Tech. Texas survived narrowly against K-State last week at home largely thanks to the defense. I like Texas to be able to run it this week and, if Quinn Ewers is back, I feel really good about their ability to throw it as well. But this is a home dog trying to get that signature win for the season. Let’s live a little.

Brian’s Pick: TCU +11.5

Duke Blue Devils (+14.5) at No. 24 North Carolina Tar Heels (8:00 p.m. ET, ACCN)

Poor Duke. From legit ACC title contender to 14-point underdogs to UNC. All because of Riley Leonard’s injuries. Obviously, it was initially the ankle injury and now he’s got a toe injury that’s expected to keep him out for awhile. Without him, they’re just not good. Give me the Tar Heels.

Brian’s Pick: North Carolina -14.5

USC Trojans (+15.5) at No. 6 Oregon Ducks (10:15 p.m. ET, FOX)

USC has been a swinging gate for opponents running games and Oregon is a tough, hard-nosed running team... You can see where this is going. Chris won’t write up this game because it’s on the late slate, but I’d imagine Bucky Irving will be expensive and heavily rostered in DFS tournaments. Ducks will roll.

Brian’s Pick: Oregon -15.5

• Noah Fifita, Arizona ($6,000) — Prepares yourselves for a Pac 12 passing game theme here. Fifita got his first start five weeks ago for the injured Jayden DeLaura and has played well enough that he is not giving that spot back. Over the course of the five games he has played, Fifita has hit 300 yards three times and thrown for three plus touchdowns in four of five. At $6k, he is playing against every team in the Pac 12 minus Utah but instead he gets to face the fantasy carnival that is the Colorado defense which gives up over 300 yards passing per game. Yes please!
• Fernando Mendoza, California ($5,900) — While Fifita will likely be in every lineup I build this week, the second QB spot will be a revolving door between Mendoza, Cam Ward of Washington State, John Rhys Plumlee of UCF, and Michael Pratt of Tulane. Mendoza gets the nod being the cheapest of the bunch in a good game environment with a high total and close spread. Also, let’s not forget what Mendoza did for us against USC putting up 36 fantasy points at $5800. He rightfully struggled at Oregon, but that was to be expected, similar to when he struggled at Utah prior to the USC game. This matchup with Washington State lies somewhere in between the two previous times he has started at home against USC and Oregon State so an expectation between 25-30 fantasy points is realistic.

• Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State ($7,900) — At this point, fade Ollie at your own risk. Over his last four games, Ollie has received at least 30 touches in each and is coming off his “worst” game with “only” 30 fantasy points. If Oklahoma St hadn’t laid such an egg against South Alabama, he would legitimately be in the Heisman conversation. We mentioned last week on the show the struggles that the new Big 12 schools have been having against their new conference mates to which I attribute to differences on the line of scrimmage. UCF in particular has struggled stopping the run, having allowed over 5 yards per carry and 23 of their 31 touchdowns allowed this year on the ground. Ollie did look a bit banged up toward the end of Bedlam last week but he stayed in the game so my concern is limited as to his availability considering the tight spread and importance of every game at this point when it comes to making the conference championship game.
• Makhi Hughes, Tulane ($5,800) — If my James Madison Dukes are not the best G5 team, then last year’s Rose Bowl winners Tulane certainly are. Similar to the value of the JMU receivers last week, the price is just wrong. This coaching staff had traditionally employed a running back by committee system for years until Tyjae Spears bucked the trend last season. We started off the year expecting to revert back to that shared backfield, but Hughes has mostly picked up where Spears left off having rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last five games. With a 38 point team total and favored by 23 points at home, I expect Hughes to touch the ball early and often against a run defense giving up 4.25 per carry with 20 touchdowns on the year.

• Jacob Cowing, Arizona ($6,700) — I initially wrote up Tet McMillan and how he was high school teammates with Fifita in a great matchup where they will continue to succeed. Then about an hour later, it hit me that Tet will have to face Travis Hunter as an outside receiver. While that will be a fun matchup to watch and usually I would not care who is playing opposite of my wide receiver on a defense giving up over 300 yards passing a game, Hunter is a different breed. So now I will switch my pick to the defacto wide receiver one who receives the most targets per game on the team. Cowing is a stud who operates out of the slot in the short area passing game but can produce big scores as evidenced by his 10/88/4 line against USC earlier this year. This lines up to be the week that we see Cowing get his first 100 yard game of the year.
• Lincoln Victor, Washington State ($5,800) — The last time I recommended Victor, he got hurt holding an extra point. If that happens again I promise to never write about him again. Fact of the matter is that since returning from that injury, he has reception totals of 16,9,12. Currently, he is listed as probable for the game having practiced on Wednesday after leaving the game early against Stanford so it is something to monitor. If he were to miss, Kyle Williams would be the easy pivot at $100 cheaper since he filled the role when Victor was out. The matchup is great against the second worst pass defense on the slate in California who has allowed 282 yards passing per game.