College Football Week 8 Best Bets: Michigan vs Michigan State and Air Force vs Navy

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down two rivalry games between Michigan vs Michigan State and Air Force vs Navy.

Air Force (-11.5) at Navy: O/U 37.5

I missed Service Academy unders and we have our first of the season! Dating back to 2012, the Under is 28-3-1 (90.3%) and is 12-1-1 (92.3%) since 2018.

The previous scores between Navy and Air Force over the last five years have been low-scoring outside of one contest (34-25). In the other four, the scores were 47 or lower in all four with multiple blowouts: 13-10, 23-3, 40-7, and 35-7.

Air Force ranks 1st with 334.8 rushing yards per game and 5th in rushing defense (77.0 ypg). The Falcons are 3rd overall in total defense (240.0 ypg), 14th in scoring defense (14.6 ppg), and 31st in red zone defense (75%).

Navy is not nearly as good on defense, and that’s why the spread is -11.5 in favor of Air Force. The Midshipmen are 79th in rushing defense (148.5 ypg), and 47th in scoring defense (23.0 ppg), but 12th in red zone defense (68.4%).

Both teams enter this game with the mindset to run on offense and stop the run on defense. Air Force is 1st in time of possession and Navy is 33rd, plus the Midshipmen are 5th in rushing offense with 235.7 ypg.

Expect long possessions with the clock running, punts, a few fourth-down attempts, and field goals. I played and posted the Under 39.5 at -115 odds on X @VmoneySports and would go down to 37.0 for 1.5 units.

Michigan (-24.5) at Michigan State: O/U 47.5

Michigan has yet to allow a team to score more than 10 points on them and MSU is next in line for that challenge as the books list the Spartans’ Team Total at 10.5.

Michigan State is coming off a 27-24 loss to Rutgers where the Spartans blew a 27-6 lead. Michigan molly-whopped Indiana, 52-7, and will look to have another strong showing on both ends.

Michigan State was held to 7 points at Michigan last year and scored 14 or fewer points in four of the previous six matchups.

The Spartans’ offense ranks 100th on third-downs this year (35.9%), 105th in passing efficiency (119.7), 109th in rushing offense (118.7 ypg), plus 125th in turnover margin (-6).

The Wolverines allow 6.7 ppg this season (1st) and own the top-rated red-zone defense (33.3%), plus the 16th-ranked third-down defense (31.5%). I don’t have much faith in the Spartans’ offense outside of wanting to win because of the rivalry.

I played Michigan State’s Team Total Under 10.5 at -120 odds. I would play Under 9.5 for +100 or better at 1 unit and look for live betting opportunities.

Indiana beat our Under 6.5 team total last week, but we live bet the Under 9.5 and 7.5 to make money back.

Season Record: 40-21-1 +16.8u

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