College Football Win Total Lines and Picks: Could a Host of Legacy Teams Miss Out on Bowl Season?
Sin City’s college football win total markets are decorated with iconic mascots with bad feelings in their gut this summer. Put simply, there are a number of prestigious FBS teams that are expected to drift below .500, and to struggle to earn 6 victories on the campaign.
In the fast-approaching month of August, WagerBop’s pigskin team will expand on which on-the-brink legacy teams could make good (and bad) picks this season. For now, here’s a glance at a few of those ailing titans of the FBS, and their chances to outplay meager win-total predictions, some of which we’re unused to looking at.
FBS Win Total Sportsbook Odds and Predictions for 2023
Boston College Win Total Line and Forecast
The passing-game geek Jonathan DiBiaso will bring ACC and SEC experience along with him as BC’s brand new analyst and assistant QB coach this autumn. Yet there’s really no kind of window dressing that can reverse the trend of poor offense at Boston College, though, especially with top-round NFL Draft pick WR Zay Flowers moving on to join the Baltimore Ravens. BC has had such an issue scoring points and earning explosive plays in the 2020s that an otherwise crisp, celebratory Spring Game in the melting months of Massachusetts may be turning into an annual dud.
The Eagles’ optimistic (-115) Las Vegas odds on netting Over (5.5) total wins could be due to bookmakers assuming the ACC will remain diminished for the time being. But the BC out-of-conference schedule includes tough dates against NIU and Army West Point.
WagerBop’s Pick: Under (5.5) (-105)
Michigan State Win Total Line and Forecast
The Spartans are a name-brand transfer portal victim in 2023, having lost QB Payton Thorne to Auburn and WR Keon Coleman to Florida State. Throne recently confirmed that he spent most of last season (in which he was a starter) injured, but that MSU head coach Mel Tucker was not transparent about his injuries. Thorne spent much of the season facing scrutiny from fans, but the fact that they didn’t know he was hurt is not a great look for Michigan State football.
A sense of optimism surrounds Michigan State’s campaign for the typical grab-bag of reasons, starting with 4 home games to start the 2023-24 schedule and a slew of talented CBs on the squad. Recall what often occurs, though, when a talented defensive backfield plays on a team that’s putting on uninspired efforts in the trenches, and has a coach on the hot seat. Sportsbook odds are slanted toward Michigan State losing 7+ times.
WagerBop’s Pick: No Recommended Bets
Florida Win Total Line and Forecast
Schedule strength seemingly always ends up as a big topic of conversation factor when it comes to a win total forecast. While it’s fun to talk about schedules and rivals from various FBS conferences on a school’s slate, our serious gamers would rather discuss exciting new Florida recruits like QB Aaron Chiles, he being among several new commits that help to offset the loss of QB Austin Simmons.
Unfortunately, sportsbooks can help to steer pundits a certain way by putting out markets that clearly reflect the gossip at everyone’s water-cooler. Florida’s difficult slate is the only clear reason why such a traditional power would be handicapped with an O/U (5.5) win total line, especially given that the Gators have competed in bowl games every year since 2015. It’s very true that The Swamp (and its traveling roster) will face a punishing back stretch this autumn, visiting Kentucky to begin the SEC schedule and following that with consecutive meetings against South Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, and finally Florida State.
But Florida’s schedule woes may be more commanding from an SEC standings point-of-view than predictive of a pure win total pick. A victory over FCS opponent McNeese State may not count toward the Gators’ bowl eligibility, but it’ll count toward the Vegas win total market. WagerBop doesn’t trust Arkansas to do anything more than churn within the SEC pack this year, while Charlotte and Vanderbilt make relatively easy visiting opponents come October.
WagerBop’s Pick: Over (5.5) (-134)
Purdue Win Total Line and Forecast
A significant challenge stands ahead for Purdue’s new coach Ryan Walters this season, as turning the Boilermakers’ depth chart around is a tall ask following an outgoing transfer outbreak.
Bookmakers have stamped pricey (-150) payoff odds on Purdue going 5-7 or worse, once again making the Over/Under win total pick a dodgy proposition.
WagerBop’s Pick: No Recommended Bets
Cincinnati Win Total Line and Forecast
Las Vegas’ stunning O/U (5.5) win total line for Cincinnati in 2023 is an example of betting odds based on headlines only. Scott Satterfield is taking over as the “unproven” head coach for a team that will field new faces in the starting offensive backfield and on the pass rush. But the real reason the Bearcats – a school that has made Group-of-5 history and competed nobly in the College Football Playoff in the 2020s – is forecast to lose more times than it prevails is because the program is making a leap from G5 to the Power-5 this season.
WagerBop is not buying win total odds that have Cincy’s prop picks slanted to the low side of O/U (5.5). It’s one thing to have Power-5 prejudice, but another to think a step upward is a leap to Pluto.
We can debate whether Cincinnati will ever have a roster as strong as former QB Desmond Ritter’s lineup. What’s not open for debate is that plenty of Southeastern Conference teams with positive season W/L records have lost to the top of their conference by worse scores than Cincinnati did in the postseason. Going from the “Group-of-5 to the Power-5” is a deceptive way to think about Cincinnati’s new schedule of opponents, since the Big 12 and Pac-12 have lagged behind the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten since the new FBS’s inception. Cincy could potentially be favored to win on the moneyline against 7+ opponents, including Pitt, EKU, Miami (OH), Kansas, BYU, Iowa State, and West Virginia.
WagerBop’s Pick: Over (5.5) (+138)
Army West Point Win Total Line and Forecast
Bookmakers have once again made the mistake of placing more influence on a school’s marquee games for a W/L forecast when in reality, a CFB win total pick is a simple arithmetic tally of victories. Jeff Monken’s disciplined Army Black Knights will host Boston College early in autumn, just the right time (and opponent) to score a win over an ACC program with nothing but stale vanilla on offense. That will be followed by a game against Troy of the humble Sun Belt Conference, and a chance to get to at least 5-2 before Halloween even rolls around.
The Black Knights ranked 45th in the FBS in defense last season. That’s not the kind of program that tends to have issues starting 2-0 against Louisiana-Monroe and Delaware State. Most assuredly, Army West Point is likely to lose to LSU, and a couple of other big shots on the 2023 calendar after that. But the damage will have been done to those speculators who yet again underrated an academy – or overrated the importance of big-ticket events on W/L totals.
WagerBop’s Pick: Over (5.5) (-164)
