College Football's Week Zero: Predictions on a Lopsided Week of Las Vegas Odds on the FBS
Over the last few years, Week Zero in the FBS has grown from a Group-of-5 gimmick to a banner sports-TV watch. Teams such as Notre Dame, Southern Cal, and UCF are slated to launch campaigns well before most of Division 1 commences play on September 2nd and 3rd. But while fans will watch premier bowl contenders perform in Week Zero, the bookmakers at FanDuel don’t expect August’s games to affect the New Year’s Six calculus very much. Betting odds are so lopsided, it’s as if Power-5 teams have already reached Homecoming weekend.
The Fighting Irish officially kick off the FBS season in Dublin, Ireland against Navy, a massive (+20.5) point underdog on the spread. The Midshipmen were able to snap a decades-long losing streak against Notre Dame since adopting the academy’s patented Flexbone offense. But seasons of subpar QB production led to the firing of former head coach Ken Niumatalolo last year, and a rebuilding project for new Navy skipper Brian Newberry. FanDuel has placed a 50-point total line on the game with Navy garnering 7-to-1 moneyline odds to win.
San Jose State’s trip to Southern Cal has more superlative point total odds. USC’s Heisman-caliber passing game is responsible for the Trojans’ (-30.5) point spread over the scrappy Spartans, but a point total line of O/U (64.5) also reflects SJSU’s chance to fight back behind the arm of Chevan Cordeiro. Louisiana Tech is a (-10.5) pick over FIU, and Vanderbilt enjoys a rare double-digit spread over its own pending a rematch against Hawaii, an ailing brand that may be just as distracted as last year.
The tightest odds for Saturday’s schedule involves some dinner-time kickoffs. San Diego State (-3) and Ohio are the main course, a fascinating bout of MAC finesse against a burly MWC host with off-the-field concerns of its own. Don’t sleep on New Mexico State (-7.5) and Massachusetts, however, as NMSU has a chance to prove 2022-23 wasn’t a fluke. The Aggies are (-315) ML picks to come out on top.
WagerBop’s Week Zero Predictions and Best Wagers
Saturday, August 26 in Dublin, Ireland: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen
It’s become commonplace for FanDuel’s bookmakers to take stances on games, and our CFB blog has been known to stand up for service academy football. The service branches’ trademark Flexbone-option offense could be the most misunderstood in all of gridiron analytics, for explosive plays come in bunches when a Flex team is humming, whether it throws passes down the field or not. Navy and Army, despite being overshadowed by Air Force’s flight to the Mountain West’s top tier, went a combined 14-10 ATS in 2022-23. Those generals and admirals who were once a pain in the neck for coaches trying to win championships have relaxed their previously absurd rules against big, meaty linemen in military training, helping all 3 pigskin programs maintain a competitive edge on the field.
If you’re looking for any “It’s just Navy!” picks on service academy games, we suggest you head to a different scroll. What’s more, the sportsbook’s main market odds on Notre Dame’s debut against Navy in Dublin, Ireland are an invitation for Annapolis advocates to ante on up. Navy’s underdog line to win is drawing picks at (+720) or about 7-to-1 odds, while Notre Dame’s moneyline can be picked or parlayed at cool (-1200) or 1-to-12 odds. UND’s spread is a whopping (-20.5) for a scrum with a modest O/U line of (50.5).
Going with Notre Dame could feel like the correct pick anyway, and not merely to those with bias against the Flexbone. Navy’s success rises and falls with its quarterbacks, and Mids’ veterans Tai Lavatai and 5’9″ Xavier Arline could regretfully make for a mismatch against Notre Dame’s new transfer Sam Hartman, who set ACC passing records at Wake Forest. Fighting Irish teams of coaches like Charlie Weis ran up the middle 50+ times against Navy, working to take advantage of the sub-250 pound linemen which Navy was forced to play at defensive tackle and nose guard. Irish HC Marcus Freeman will be smart enough to let his hot shot QB arrival take pot-shots at Navy’s defensive backfield, and punish the Middies’ Group-of-5 level CB corps with quick throws and runs-after-catch.
What could be worrying UND’s bettors against the spread, apart from slow-churning Navy possessions that eat the game clock, is that Navy’s rookie coach Brian Newberry doesn’t intend to start his Annapolis reign with a sad sack 55-3 defeat. Newberry has put in some Shotgun-snap wrinkles in the style of Colorado Springs skipper Trey Calhoun’s offense and will run gadget plays and razzle-dazzle bombs in lieu of losing meekly in his debut. That calls the sportsbook’s “meek” Over/Under betting line of (50.5) points into question since a first-year coach in his first game is likely to either sink or swim. If Navy has a poor game, UND will cover the line by itself. If Navy springs a few TDs on some trick plays or bombs down the field, then look for Notre Dame to score heavily in the 3rd quarter and still win by 2+ TDs.
WagerBop’s Pick: Over (50.5)
Saturday, August 26: Massachusetts Minutemen at New Mexico State Aggies
Week Zero’s primetime slate is not expected to be filled with close games. Vanderbilt is a gigantic (-17.5) point spread favorite over Hawaii, a program that was ravaged by outgoing transfers following COVID-19, and by what too many of the Rainbow Warriors found to be an abusive coaching staff in the early 2020s. USC is a massive (-30.5) favorite ATS over San Jose State, a market that reflects not only the potential of Southern Cal in 2023-24, but a forecast that SJSU will squander all its progress. Even the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, who defined “average” in the FBS for many years, are double-digit ATS favorites.
Though the late-night games may lack a competitive edge, Saturday’s early-evening schedule might just save the day. New Mexico State (-7.5) vs UMass (+7.5) is among a trio of relatively tightly handicapped bouts between Notre Dame’s game overseas and the suspected blow-outs of late Saturday night. However, in the case of the kickoff in Las Cruces, the TD-sized point spread may be seen as an indictment, not a compliment to either side.
The Minutemen have been the dregs of the FBS for a couple of seasons now, and have been forced to rehire an old coaching staff in the vein of George Steinbrenner releasing and then hiring Billy Martin. As for NMSU, analysts don’t trust the Aggies to regenerate last year’s watershed success which included a bowl win and a 7-6 overall record.
However, with the combination of a returning (and stout) effective offense and a veteran PK in Ethan Robertson, the Aggies should be able to accumulate enough points to cover against students who can only dream of a bowl bid. UMass will benefit from various QB transfers, but it’s too early to make any significant change.
WagerBop’s Pick: New Mexico State ATS (-7.5)
Saturday, August 26: Ohio Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs
The perceived most well-matched game of Week Zero could also be the most tenuous. Saturday’s game may be moved to another site near the west coast, or even postponed or canceled, if Hurricane Hilary does its worst in smashing SoCal.
Of course, we can look back on the crazy sportsbook markets and highlights of the Hurricane Bowl between Notre Dame and North Carolina State in the 2010s. But that scrum was played in a hurry (and a wet-weather lake) just as a tropical depression was threatening to wash away all scholastic activities. Ohio, and SDSU especially, could have some distracted players this weekend.
It would be dangerous for FanDuel users to think that the prediction angles for Ohio (+3) at-or-versus San Diego State hinge on this week’s weather news, and thus around the Aztecs’ ability to host the game somewhere close to home if not right on campus. Ohio is a field-goal underdog that deserves respect this August, as the Bobcats at least have the goods to control what kind of contest Saturday’s tentatively scheduled game will become, even if they cannot win it. QB Nathan Rourke’s offense has the superior finesse, but SDSU possesses the superior beef and numbers, making the matchup resemble Friday Night Lights whenever the bigger team hogs the ball in front of noisy fans, but is scared to death of the D1 runner on the rival team.
Our blog is predicting that the Bobcats will peck, poke, and produce just enough yards to flip the field but not score on most of the team’s turns. As a result, the Under (49.5) total points is the MWC vs MAC battle’s best pick, but not just for the field-position reason. If San Diego State is faced with hard decisions and stress prior to a dull performance, then Ohio’s point spread market as well as the “Under” option are the best choices at FanDuel.
WagerBop’s Pick: Under (49.5)
Saturday, August 26: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt’s (-17.5) favorite’s spread is a nod to the Commodores’ start in Week Zero of last season, when Vandy embarrassed the Rainbow Warriors by 53 points in Honolulu. Such a proud brand doesn’t typically get blown out by a cellar team from any other FBS league at home to begin the campaign, but Hawaii was dealing with a nightmarish transfer exodus at the time. What’s scary about coach Clark Lea’s team as a 3-TD point spread pick to cover is that Vanderbilt’s 2022-23 corps was subsequently weak against Elon in the next so-called “thrash for cash” game, outgained by the lower-division program and threatened with an infamous score of its own, before winning a pitched battle of a shoot-out 42-31. Following another dive to the bottom of the SEC, Vandy may not warrant confident ATS picks straight out of the gate.
A harsh heat wave is soon expected to hit Flyover country, potentially bringing with it a rough, draining atmosphere in Nashville. But NCAA coaches – already Spread Offense obsessed to begin with – are less likely to use physical up-the-gut game plans in such circumstances. It’s better to vary the play selection and let 10+ athletes touch the ball than to lean on a lone tailback who could cramp early on.
WagerBop’s Pick: Over (55.5)
Saturday, August 26: San Jose State Spartans at USC Trojans
Are FanDuel’s bookmakers making yet another stance with their widest Week Zero point spread? Not unless you count half a point as a bold statement. Southern Cal’s (-30.5) line over San Jose State can be found at most sportsbooks within the same 4-5 touchdown margin. A cursory glance at San Jose State’s news makes it hard to believe that the line reflects SJSU’s weakness, as opposed to USC’s potentially dynamic offensive line.
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame’s signal-caller, will almost certainly finish Week Zero having outplayed Navy’s quarterbacks. But you can’t say the same about Caleb Williams against SJSU’s 6-year veteran Chevan Cordeiro, even though the latter player’s FBS credentials will never match those of the reigning Heisman Trophy winner at Southern Cal. Cordeiro’s got most of a bowl-worthy 2022 offensive line coming back to protect him, and many of SJSU’s preseason “newcomers” are just more speedy freshman WRs getting worked into a healthy mix of talent. Coaches who’ve overseen rapid rebuilds, like Spartan coach Brent Brennan, are more likely to win for another year before trotting off to the Power-5 than to oversee a collapse back into last place. His 2023 team’s chief flaw is a defensive line that is wildly undersized.
The Trojans often appear to be playing against themselves in regular season games, and not always successfully. That’s what made Williams such a revelation last season, as USC seemed to make its way into the end zone no matter how many SoCal student-athletes bobbled the ball or took penalties. But matching up against a smallish front-7 gives Trojan coaches an easy way out in Week Zero, potentially allowing Southern Cal to rush successfully for 1st downs as often as it pleases. HC Lincoln Riley, a veteran of an OU program that’s rushed for 300+ yards on an overflowing share of underdogs over the years, won’t pass up the chance to limit a QB like Cordeiro with 40+ rush attempts.
The USC vs SJSU point-total line has also been inflated to O/U (64.5), which insinuates that San Jose State will toss touchdown passes in trash time once Southern Cal takes a commanding 3rd quarter lead. Yet that’s a mistake that fails to conceptualize where each program is with its offense. SJSU has taken criticism for not generating enough yards on the ground, while the Spartans otherwise climb into MWC contention after an era of mediocrity. SJSU coordinator Kevin McGiven can’t be allowed to turn his marquee QB loose against a fierce pass rush. Big-picture concerns must prevail, especially whenever a QB’s supporting cast off the field includes NFL scouts. Therefore, in trash time, look for the trailing Spartans to regularly hand the pigskin off.
