Colts vs Texans prediction, preview, picks, betting odds

The stakes couldn’t be any higher for the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader when the Indianapolis Colts host the Houston Texans for the regular-season finale. The winner of the game will secure an AFC Wild Card spot — and could even claim a division crown.

Entering the final weekend, the Colts (9-7) are currently the No. 7 seed in the AFC and have the edge over the Texans (9-7) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) via tiebreaker. Not only will the winner of Saturday’s showdown clinch a playoff berth, but the victor could surpass the Jacksonville Jaguars for the AFC South title, if the Jags were to lose to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

For both of these teams, a playoff berth seemed unlikely when the 2023/24 campaign began. Both teams started the year with rookie quarterbacks, with the Colts having to turn to veteran backup Gardner Minshew after Anthony Richardson’s rookie season ended due to injury.

C.J. Stroud, who has been the Rookie of the Year favorite for quite some time, returned from injury last weekend to lead the Texans to a 26-3 win over the Titans. He threw for 213 yards and a touchdown in his return. Houston went 1-1 without Stroud, and the Texans have gone 6-3 down the stretch.

Indianapolis is 4-2 since its Week 11 bye and 6-2 over its previous eight contests dating back to early November. The Colts are coming off a 23-20 win over the Las Vegas Raiders last time out.

These two teams met in Week 2 when both franchises were going through plenty of transition. That game resulted in a 31-20 victory for Indianapolis, in which the Colts were 1-point favorites with an over/under of 40.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, is giving the edge to the Texans in the rematch, listing them as 1-point favorites with an over/under of 47.5.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Houston Texans (9-7) at Indianapolis Colts (9-7)

Time/TV: 7:15 p.m. CT (ABC & ESPN)

Point spread (from Caesars): Texans -1

Over/Under: 47.5

Moneyline: Texans -130, Colts +110

Analysis: As is usually the case in the NFL, the market eventually caught up with both of these teams during their surprising campaign. The Colts are 9-7 against the spread and 11-5 to the over, while the Texans are 8-8 ATS and 10-6 to the under.

But it’s difficult to overlook just how formidable the Texans have looked since Stroud has hit his stride as a rookie signal-caller. After starting the season 0-2, they have won eight of the 12 games Stroud has started since then. At one point in November, Stroud threw for 300-plus yards in four straight games and he was being mentioned in the MVP race.

Even in that Week 2 loss to the Colts, it’s not like Stroud played poorly by any means. He went 30-for-47 for 384 yards and two touchdowns. That game was much more competitive than the final score would indicate, as Houston finished with more total yards and ran 23 more plays.

The Texans should avenge that Week 2 loss and punch their ticket to the postseason by taking care of business on the road during the final weekend of the regular season.

Best bet: Texans -1 (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook)