Column: Peter Seidler's huge payroll should equate to Padres playoff berth, and that's OK

The Padres’ season ahead comes down to this:

Thanks to MLB’s third-largest payroll and clever trades, there’s too much star power on board for this club not to reach the playoffs in most scenarios.

In the season opener Thursday, three MVP candidates will line up alongside All-Star infielder Jake Croneworth. A fourth, Fernando Tatis Jr., is due back April 20. The Big Three pitchers who fueled a playoff run last October are back, as is closer Josh Hader, a three-time All-Star.

So, for now, stars compose more than a third of the daily roster. Hence playoff chances that run from 81 percent to 89 percent on several projection systems.

Postseason competition is dicey, as in roll the dice.

But the $249-million payroll gives the Padres no worse than a decent shot at the National League West title and thus a first-round bye in the four-tier World Series tournament.

Ray Kroc, who outbid George Steinbrenner for stars, would be enjoying this show. He’d hand Peter Seidler one of his favorite cigars.

That the Padres are third in MLB payroll, behind only the two New York clubs, is unthinkable.

Then again, Seidler thinks differently.

The Padres are outspending — can you believe it? — the Dodgers. The team of Seidler’s youth. By $21 million.

Will Scott Boras and union boss Tony Clark dance on the home dugout at Petco Park? The Padres’ payroll tops the Cubs, Red Sox and Phillies.

If we can be transactional, the Padres have bought themselves, at minimum, their second winning 162-game season in 10 such years under Seidler and eight under General Manager A.J. Preller.

While young stars will enable some other teams to outperform their payrolls, a $125-million advantage ought to smooth rough seas for the Good Ship Padre.

Twelve teams. That’s how many clubs the Padres are outspending at least $125 million.

By June 1, when the non-tanking teams have identified what upgrades are needed ahead of the summer trade deadline, the Padres will have played 44 of 59 games against teams with payrolls at least $50 million lighter. For 20 of those games, the gap will be oceanic: $108 million to $168 million.

If Preller seeks to increase payroll via a trade, there’s no reason to believe Seidler will morph into Tom Werner or John Moores.

Among other owners in MLB’s small markets, Seidler probably isn’t winning friends.

Truth is, the Padres haven’t been so hot at developing their draftees and international amateurs into big-league players. In fairness, they traded several for big leaguers.

Accumulating stars is their bag. The Padres have a clear idea of what type of player they want. That helps.

“There is nothing wrong with what the Padres are doing,” said a longtime MLB scout with another team. “If your owner’s willing to lose money (short term) and buy himself into the playoffs, there’s nothing wrong with that.”

The scout added: “You just have to understand the realities of the playoffs. Even when you’re the best team, your odds of winning it all, at most, are like 25 percent. So, how much do you want to pay for that gamble? There’s no right or wrong here. It’s just how much you are willing to spend and lose for low odds. Maybe they win it all. There’s no right or wrong.”

Padres newcomer Matt Carpenter, who played for the Yankees and Cardinals, has said he admires Seidler’s efforts. When it was suggested to Carpenter that, in the months ahead, some owners in smaller markets may be pulling for the Padres to flop, the player frowned, though it didn’t diminish his spectacular mustache.

“If an owner wants to be malicious in their thinking of another team for spending money and wanting to try to win, I don’t really see any sense in that,” he said. “I’d rather see the opposite. I’d rather see teams go out and get good players. Because that’s what fans like. That’s really my two cents.”

Whatever a team’s payroll, all of them are as vulnerable as the connective tissues of their pitchers.

If you think any team is a Word Series favorite, just watch one slow-motion video of a big-league pitcher contorting his arm.

The Big Three are all 30 or older. The Padres ought to look to add a starting pitcher, sooner than later. Two dozen other teams will do the same.

The Dodgers have stars, too, even after losing Trea Turner to the Phillies. Even so, give the Padres’ lineup the edge.

Can the Padres match L.A.’s depth? The scout said no. Its proven ability to develop talent? Its more highly ranked farm system?

Making up 22 games — the margin last year — will take not just stars but good luck. In other words, make the Dodgers a slight favorite to win their 10th West title in 11 years.

The Padres should win at least 90 games. Last time that happened here was 2010.

Thanks to Seidler, the Padres’ World Series dream is bereft of a pipe. That’s a welcomed development.