Commanders vs. Cowboys Predictions, Picks & Odds for Thanksgiving

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20 November 2023

Commanders vs. Cowboys Predictions, Picks & Odds for Thanksgiving

The Dallas Cowboys host the Washington Commanders on Thanksgiving as we make our best Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions based on the best NFL odds.

Last week, the Washington Commanders suffered an ugly 31-19 loss to the New York Giants. Quarterback Sam Howell threw three interceptions, while the defense allowed Giants QB Tommy DeVito to throw for 246 yards and three touchdowns.

The Dallas Cowboys took care of business in a 33-10 beat down of the Carolina Panthers in Week 11. The defense held the Panthers to just 187 total yards. The Cowboys’ last three wins have all been by 23 or more points.

Here is our best Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction: Thanksgiving

Over 48.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Considering what the Cowboys have done in their last three wins, covering 11 points against a Commanders team that just lost at home to the Giants seems like a no-brainer. But four of the Commanders' seven losses have been in one-score games, and two of those performances came against the Philadelphia Eagles, while another came two weeks ago against the Seattle Seahawks. That loss to the Seahawks came after Chase Young and Montez Sweat were traded.

Howell has established himself as one of the league’s most stereotypical gunslingers. He’s fourth in the league in passing yards per game and tied for sixth in passing touchdowns. But for all those good numbers, he’s also tied for the league lead in interceptions. His presence makes it hard to determine how the Commanders will fare against the spread in any game.

Whether the Cowboys win by 20-plus points for the fourth game in a row or by just seven, this will be a high-scoring game. The Cowboys are averaging 30.2 points per game, and they’re about to face a defense that has allowed 29 and 31 in their last two games. The Cowboys have also let up some points in their blowout victories this season. The Giants scored 17 on them two weeks ago, and the Los Angeles Rams scored 20 in a game that was 33-9 at halftime.

Neither of these teams runs the ball particularly well, so this should be a pass-heavy game featuring plenty of chunk yardage plays. Additionally, Howell’s inability to take care of the ball will give the Cowboys excellent field position, which they will capitalize on like they have all season.

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Commanders vs. Cowboys best odds

Our best sports betting apps all have this number listed at 48.5 after it opened at 45. FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a better price than -110, so that’s the obvious place to wager.

This number will continue to climb, so we recommend getting in early. If you miss FanDuel at -105, we recommend playing any number up to 50 at the best price available to you across our best sports betting sites.

Commanders vs. Cowboys odds for Thanksgiving

The look-ahead line showed the Cowboys favored by 9.5, but after what the Commanders did on Sunday against the Giants, the spread has grown to 11 in less than 24 hours. This line should continue to grow as the public reacts to what took place in Week 11.

The total opened at 45 but quickly jumped to 48.5 at our best sportsbooks. Before their 31 points last week, the Giants hadn’t scored more than 20 in a game since Week 2. If New York could dominate the Commanders’ defense like that in Week 11, imagine what Dak Prescott and company will be able to do. We expect that question to be why this number continues to climb before kickoff.