Connolly: Orioles, after Jordan Lyles buyout, must add two quality starters this offseason

At this moment in the offseason, it’s difficult to determine whether the Orioles’ decision Wednesday to decline the $11 million option on right-hander Jordan Lyles and instead exercise his $1 million buyout was a prudent one.

Lyles, who was the Orioles’ most consistent pitcher and the rotation leader in 2022, is now a free agent. It’s possible Lyles, 32, tests the open market, doesn’t get a similar or better offer, and returns to the Orioles later this offseason for less money.

It’s not that the Orioles don’t think Lyles, who was 12-11 with a 4.42 ERA in a team-high 179 innings and a career-high 32 starts, could be worth $10 million in 2023, especially given his leadership skills. He’d be a good, fourth starter for nearly every club in the majors.

The issue is that the Orioles don’t want to spend that much money right now before the market for free-agent pitchers heats up.

That thinking is reasonable; you don’t want to spend on Lyles and then be handcuffed by lack of money or rotation spots if a better opportunity comes along.

There’s an inherent risk there, though. That Lyles signs elsewhere and a comparable – or lesser – pitcher ends up costing more. And isn’t as good. Nor is he a leader.

It’s OK for Baltimore general manager Mike Elias to roll the dice here.

But what’s not OK is if the Orioles emerge from the offseason without another Lyles type – and then some.

This offseason, the Orioles would like to acquire a pitcher who can serve as a No. 1 or No. 2, by either a trade or a free-agent signing.

Frankly, that’s a must if this ascending team wants to truly contend in the American League East.

Would it be ideal for the Orioles to land Carlos Rodón on a club-record contract for a free-agent pitcher; or swing mightily with a huge, short-term deal for Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom?

Absolutely.

Will those scenarios occur?

Can’t imagine. Absolutely can’t. Too much competition. Likely more money than the Orioles are willing to spend.

That doesn’t mean, however, that the Orioles should give up on the free-agent pitching market because Rodón and Verlander and that ilk are out of the organization’s comfort zone.

This staff certainly would improve with a second-tier free-agent signing, someone like Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, José Quintana or several other intriguing candidates in a fairly deep class of established starters.

It also would improve if Elias found a trade partner willing to take some prospect depth in exchange for a starting pitcher with upside and financial control. The Miami Marlins, for one, appear to be a solid fit.

What the 2023 Orioles really need is one pitcher from each of these groups. Or two from one. Regardless, they should add a starter who can top the rotation, and another quality arm to help stabilize it and provide innings.

Yes, the Orioles have plenty of rotation candidates right now, led by John Means, who likely won’t be back from elbow surgery until the summer. There’s also Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish, who all had their moments in last year’s rotation; as well as youngsters Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall; and solid insurance options in Spenser Watkins, Austin Voth, Bruce Zimmermann and Mike Baumann, among others.

Quantity, however, is not quality, and there is no one in that group that you can look at and say, with full confidence, “That guy is pitching 175 acceptable innings for the Orioles in 2023.”

That’s why there needs to be reinforcements this offseason in the form of at least two starters.

Verlander alone – again, he’s not coming here – does not take this staff from solid to standout. Neither does Rodón.

For this team to be a legitimate contender, it needs two starters that can be penciled in for 30-plus starts and then some of the other guys in the projected rotation must take the next step.

That’s where Lyles would have come in. He provides innings, he gives everything he has on the mound and he acts as the staff’s mentor off the field. He demonstrated that all of 2022.

So, in that sense, it’s probably short-sighted to let him flee for a couple million beyond his potential market value, especially considering the Orioles’ paltry payroll.

Unless, of course, Elias finds an upgrade that also can provide mentorship while having a lower ERA.

That’s what he is betting on right now, before the free-agent market gets underway. And his hope is that if he doesn’t meet those needs, Lyles will still be around and willing to re-up later this winter.

It’s a calculated risk, like many roster decisions are at this time of year. Keep your options – and budget – open until you get a better sense of what’s available and for how much.

Elias has been pretty good on these gambles in the past couple years, so he deserves some leeway. The problem is past Orioles regimes have been terrible at this exercise; there’s still lingering trauma over replacing right fielder Nick Markakis in 2015 with a trunkful of nothing.

Ultimately, I’m OK with letting Lyles, 179 innings and quality leadership walk, so long as Elias replaces him with a better version. Actually, in a sense, two better versions.

Otherwise, the next calendar year could be spent looking for another Lyles type.