Copenhagen vs Man United Prediction
Copenhagen vs Man United Odds
Andre Onana's dramatic last minute penalty save at Old Trafford two weeks ago saved all three points for Man United and essentially kept them alive in Group A play as the second half of the double round robin begins on Wednesday. United won that match 1-0 despite losing the game on xG and struggling for large periods. Now, the Red Devils travel to the Parken Stadium to take on Copenhagen in a rematch.
The Danish side could be eliminated with a home defeat, while Erik ten Hag's job hangs in the balance if United were to lose again in Europe. United already lost at Bayern Munich and Galatasaray, and their underlying numbers in this group have been the clear fourth-best through three matches.
You can't form an opinion of a team based solely off three matches in a Champions League group, but Copenhagen look a formidable foe in this group and United are still dealing with an injury and identity crisis. The Danish are plenty live to pull off this upset.
Here is my Copenhagen vs Man United prediction.
The best way to compare this Copenhagen side to last year is to look at how much they've resisted better squads from tilting the field on them. Through three matches, Copenhagen are a net -19 in penalty area touches, when you compare the number of opponent touches in their box to Copenhagen touches in the other box. They are -11 in shot differential and -0.2 in xG differential.
Last season, Copenhagen had a similar group from a difficulty perspective with Dortmund, Sevilla and Manchester City. They had a -6.4 xG difference, a -42 shot differential and a -69 in penalty area touch differential. Copenhagen have been more effective at playing through attempted pressure from opponents. Bayern's press wasn't able to completely overwhelm Copenhagen and United had an 18.7 passes per defensive action in the last matchup.
Copenhagen matched United in build-up completion rate, had a comparable number of deep completions and matched them in possession at Old Trafford. All of the signs show that Copenhagen have improved from the UCL bottom tier team into the feisty competitor tier.
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Manchester United aren't close to full strength and the current crop of talent is far below the standard that the club had available last season and even at various points of this season. Casemiro and Lisandro Martinez remain out injured. The expected three-man midfield of Bruno Fernandes, Christian Eriksen and Scott McTominay completely lacks ball winning and pressing ability. McTominay adds value by getting shots in the penalty area and scoring some timely goals, but his partnership with Eriksen is inherently flawed.
Rasmus Hojlund has had his moments for United, but his shot production has really lacked in his early career. Marcus Rashford is fit to make the trip to Copenhagen, but he missed the weekend and may not be fully fit to start. Even if he is, his form has been inconsistent this season too.
From a numbers perspective, it's really hard for United to be an odds-on road favorite given the current state of its squad. United sit eighth in the Premier League table, but remember that they've run really well to get to that point. The club is playing at more like a 12th-place level. If you go by priors and squad value, you see why the market still respects United.
They haven't had a single performance worthy of that rating all season. Barely squeaking by relegation level teams, posting the worst xG differential in their CL group and inconsistent forward play all contribute to an overvalued side ripe to be picked off.
Copenhagen vs Man United
Prediction
The market steamed against Manchester United following their loss to Manchester City in the derby, and it moved even further once Rashford missed the weekend win against Fulham. That was an excellent moment of individual quality from Fernandes, but he's the only reliably in-form player for ten Hag's side right now.
As a result, Copenhagen are a very live home underdog on Wednesday. They've also been a tough side to beat at home — even last year Copenhagen had a positive xG differential in their three home matches in the CL against Manchester City, Dortmund and Sevilla. Throw in the home performance against Bayern this year and they shouldn't be a full half goal underdog here.
