Corner Picks: Best bets with Arsenal to beat Man City, Juventus to rebound against Torino

cbssports.com

06 October 2023

Corner Picks: Best bets with Arsenal to beat Man City, Juventus to rebound against Torino

I am a recreational bettor and always have been. While I take a scientific approach to most of my bets, I don't do it because I think I'm some savant or looking to get rich. I want to have fun. I don't risk more than I'm willing to lose, and what's more important to me than any financial reward is the satisfaction of being correct.

Studying something, reaching a conclusion and being proven correct feels good.

It is not nearly as fun to be wrong, but I've always handled my losses well. I get annoyed when another bettor loses and blames anything they can to absolve themselves. Sometimes, you lose, and there isn't much more to it.

However, I can't lie. I'm growing frustrated. The fact I'm 11-13 in this column doesn't make me happy, but it's not the results as much as it's the way they're being achieved. I don't know if I've felt like I've been on the wrong side of the expected goals battle as many times in the last two seasons as I have been through the first months of this one. My only wish for this weekend is that if I lose all these bets, at least let me lose in xG too! Just let me be wrong! I don't know if I can take it if I lose another bet where the team I bet on wins the xG battle 2.9-0.9 (hello, Everton) but loses anyway.

Juventus vs. Torino

My Juventus pick last week was wrong, but at least they had the dignity to play terribly against Atalanta and lose like gentlemen. While it was a surprisingly impotent performance, I'm back on Juve this week because they've been much better at home all year. Following a 1-1 draw to open the year at home, they've won two straight against Lazio and Lecce, outscoring them 4-1.

Then there's Torino. I don't know that Torino understand the rules of the sport. You can't win without scoring goals, but nobody has told them. They have an xG of 5.4 through seven matches, but while that's terrible, the xG allowed of 6.9 has been outstanding. Make no mistake, Torino will try to "win" this match 0-0, but I have a tough time thinking Juventus will look hapless in attack two weekends in a row. The Pick: Juventus (-120)

Arsenal vs. Manchester City

If the past is prologue, there's no logical reason to bet Arsenal in this match. Arsenal beat City in the Community Shield before the season, but that was in penalties. The last time Arsenal beat City in a 90-minute match was a 2-0 win in the FA Cup semis in 2020. City have won 15 of the last 16 non-exhibition matches. Yet, despite this, I'm here to tell you if there were ever a time to take Arsenal against City, it's this weekend.

City are in first place in the Premier League but don't look invincible. They've lost two of their last three matches and needed two goals in stoppage time to beat RB Leipzig on Tuesday. Do you know what those three matches had in common? They've all been on the road, just like this one. Match congestion is one thing, but playing four matches in 12 days, with all of them being away from home, takes a toll. The Pick: Arsenal (+205)

Cagliari vs. Roma

Roma have gotten off to a terrible start in Serie A, winning only two of seven matches. However, one of those two wins came last weekend in a 2-0 win over Frosinone, and Roma picked up another win in the Europa League against Servette on Thursday. This team is hot! OK, so that doesn't matter to me as much as the fact Roma's results have been misleading.

Roma are in 13th place in the league, but their xG differential per match ranks sixth. Basically, they are playing like a team I keep betting on that loses even when it should win. If ever there was a time for Roma's luck (and maybe mine!) to turn around in this department, it's this week against the last-place team in the league. Cagliari have scored only two goals in seven Serie A matches so far and looks like a team that will struggle to avoid relegation. The Pick: Roma (-120)