Cotswold Chase tips and predictions: Royale Pagaille the choice

Cheltenham stages its Festival Trials Day card on Saturday afternoon, the final day meeting at the course before the main event in March.

Amongst the highlights is the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase, a rehearsal for the Gold Cup itself over an extended 3m 1f. 

This year’s renewal has attracted a stellar-looking field of six contenders. Our expert previews the race, with a selection and next best to consider for punters.

Cotswold Chase, Cheltenham – Saturday, 1.50pm 

Cotswold Chase tips

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Stay Away from the pace

There could well be a battle for the here that compromises the hopes of those involved. Last year’s winner Ahoy Senor for Lucinda Russell is never happier than when bowling along in front, and has been close to the front from flagfall in all 14 of his starts over fences.

He came home ahead of Sounds Russian and Noble Yeats last year, with Protektorat back in fourth. And Dan Skelton’s charge ran well behind L’Homme Presse at Lingfield on Sunday, but the field that contested this race last season have run 19 times without a win since.

Ahoy Senor has to concede weight to four of his five rivals now and has been pulled up in both starts this season. He’s talented, for sure, but has something to prove.

Stay Away Fay won the Albert Bartlett over hurdles here at the Festival in March and is now 2-2 over fences for champion trainer Paul Nicholls.

In his wins this season at Exeter and Sandown he has made the running under Harry Cobden. The team at Ditcheat believe stamina will be a key trait for this improving seven-year-old and maybe taking a lead would help. But if Stay Away Fay contests that early running with Ahoy Senor it could present a problem and, regardless, this step up from novice company is set to pose new questions.

The Real Whacker won the Brown Advisory here in March, having made all for trainer Patrick Neville. He has been ridden more patiently in both starts this season and his King George fourth was a solid effort, one that perhaps means he comes in here under the radar a bit.

Royale Pagaille has excellent claims

Venetia Williams will be eager to see what ROYALE PAGAILLE can produce on this fourth Cheltenham start. He is a very fine staying chaser with five wins and five placed efforts from 19 over fences, and he beat off Bravemansgame at Haydock in November to win the Grade 1 Betfair Chase

Plenty of ease in the ground here will be a plus for him. All three previous starts at this track have been in the Gold Cup, with finishes of sixth, fifth and sixth in the last three seasons. This represents calmer water for him on the hallowed turf of Prestbury Park.

The slightly shorter distance of this race compared with the Blue Riband should also be in his favour and that Haydock win is decent form, stronger than what Stay Away Fay has achieved or the Coral Gold Cup win of Datsalrightgino.

This strong-travelling sort can sit off the pace and creep into the race and his hardened nature will serve him well when they turn for home. This looks a good spot for him to record a Cheltenham win.

Capodanno not making up the numbers

Willie Mullins will have more obvious Gold Cup hopes in March with Galopin Des Champs but it has to be noted CAPODANNO is his first runner in this race since Ruby Walsh fell on Djakadam in 2016.

With nine starts behind him, the JP McManus-owned gelding remains quite lightly raced as a chaser, but he is a Grade 1-winning novice at this trip after his success in 2022 at the Punchestown Festival.

Last term, he only raced twice, one of those being the Grand National at Aintree where he never managed to get into it from the rear and was pulled up.

He looked rusty on his comeback at Thurles in November but has taken a step forward since when third in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown behind outstanding winner Galopin Des Champs and just a head off the second Gerri Colombe.

His jumping could have been better there but it was still a good effort on very testing ground and a return to something akin to ‘soft’ now will help, as Paul Townend throws a leg over him for the first time on the racecourse.

The Mullins team enter the weekend with a strike-rate in excess of 39 per cent from more than 70 runners since the turn of the year and this 160-rated chaser should play his part in receipt of 3lb and more from the field.

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