Cowboys vs Dolphins pick, prediction, player props: NFL odds

The Miami Dolphins begin their late-season gauntlet in Week 16 by welcoming the Dallas Cowboys. Hard Rock Stadium hosts this pivotal cross-conference clash with the Dolphins hoping to lock up the AFC East before taking on the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys have high hopes of their own as they chase the NFC's No. 1 seed.

The contest is set to kick off at 3:25 p.m. CT from Miami, Florida. Fox will carry the broadcast with Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen on the call.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, lists the hosts as slight favorites with an over/under of 50.

Let's take a closer look at the odds, and highlight some picks and player props for this decisive duel:

Dallas Cowboys (10-4) at Miami Dolphins (10-4)

Time/TV: 3:25 p.m. CT (Fox)

Spread: Dolphins -1

Over/Under: 50

Moneyline: Dolphins -120, Cowboys +100

PLAYER PROP PICKS

Dak Prescott OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (-169 at Caesars Sportsbook)

We predicted Dak Prescott's struggles last week against a Buffalo Bills defense that is flying around the field. The MVP candidate was horrendous as he failed to find the end zone and only threw for 134 yards. However, we're going to predict a bounceback this week.

The Miami Dolphins are much better against the run (No. 4 in the NFL) than they are against the pass (No. 10). The Dallas Cowboys are going to have to turn it over to their gunslinger in a game many oddsmakers predict will be a high-scoring affair. Before last week, he'd gone seven consecutive games with 2+ passing touchdowns and he's accounted for 28 so far this year.

The only other time this season that Prescott failed to register a passing touchdown (Week 1 vs. the Giants), he came back with a pair the next week against the Jets. Odds show that books are expecting Prescott to bounce back in a big way with the over on his passing touchdowns prop heavily juiced.

Raheem Mostert anytime touchdown scorer (-143 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Surely by now, everybody has seen the insane statistic about Raheem Mostert's career to date. The 31-year-old is having a historic year during his ninth season in the league. He leads the NFL in touchdowns right now with 20, which is more than he scored in his first eight seasons combined (19).

Mostert has played in all 14 of Miami's games this season and he's found the end zone in 11 of his appearances. Two of the three times he failed to score were when he got less than 10 carries in hefty defeats. This means he's found the end zone in 11 of 12 games where he's gotten 10+ carries.

Mostert's gotten 15+ touches in four of the last five, so it's safe to say he's not slowing down anytime soon. You'll have to pay up to bet on the Purdue product as an anytime touchdown scorer (-143), but it's proven to be a worthy investment on most occasions this season.

Tyreek Hill OVER 88.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Tyreek Hill is chasing history. His absence last week against the Jets set him back in the race for 2,000 receiving yards in a single season. Hill has shown over his time in Miami that he is the most dominant receiver in the entire league. He's already racked up more than 1,500 yards in 2023.

Hill's has tallied five games under 89 receiving yards this season and he's going up against the NFL's No. 4 pass defense. However, he needs to have a big game against Dallas if he wants to reach the 2,000-yard mark before the end of the 2023/24 regular season.