NFL Week 16 Cowboys vs. Dolphins predictions: Odds preview, game and player prop bets

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In some households, they open a Christmas present early on Christmas Eve. We’ve got quite the gift ourselves this December 24 as a late-season heavyweight non-conference clash pits two 10-4 teams against each other as the Dallas Cowboys head to Miami to face the Dolphins.

Here, we preview a titanic showdown and offer some best bets and picks for the game.

The Cowboys were humbled last week as they were battered 31-10 by the Buffalo Bills, mustering under 200 yards of total offense as their five-game win streak crashed and burned.

Dak Prescott put in arguably his worst display of the season, throwing for a season-low 134 yards and blanking without a touchdown for only the second time this year.

Now, the team who are 3-4 on the road face another daunting road trip for Christmas, heading to Hard Rock Stadium to face the AFC East-leading Miami Dolphins who are not only also 10-4 but 6-1 in front of their own fans.

After an upset in Monday night primetime against the Titans, Miami rebounded last week by sweeping aside the Jets 30-0, earning their first shutout of the season and making light work of covering the spread as a seven-point favorite.

That win came without star receiver Tyreek Hill as Jaylen Waddle stepped up to the plate with eight catches for a season-high 142 yards and a touchdown. Raheem Mostert also ran in twice to set the franchise record with 20 touchdowns on the season.

Hill did not practice on Wednesday after missing last week’s game due to an ankle injury, but head coach Mike McDaniel said they are looking to ensure the WR is “all cylinders go” for Sunday.

The Cowboys opened as 2-point underdogs. Coverage begins from Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida at 3:25 p.m. CT on FOX.

The Dolphins are solid at Hard Rock with just one loss at home all year, while the Cowboys have a losing road record. Although Dallas has a sturdy pass defense that should be able to go toe-to-toe with Miami’s No. 1 pass attack, the same can’t be said on the ground, where the Cowboys are giving up 117 yards per game on average. Miami puts up nearly 140 rushing yards per game, the fourth-best in the league, and has a ton of speed across the board that can expose Dallas, particularly if Hill is indeed fit to return.

Meanwhile, over their last four games, the Dolphins are 3-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. The Cowboys have been road underdogs three times this year and have lost all three times, at the Niners, the Eagles, and the Bills. Miami hasn’t fared well against top-class teams, averaging a -16.3 point differential against the Bills, the Eagles, and the Chiefs, but this one may well buck the trend.

This is one of the highest points over/under totals of the week, and it’s for good reason. The Dolphins are No. 1 in the league for points scored and passing yards and No. 4 in rushing yards, while the Cowboys are the second-highest scorers with the sixth-best passing offense.

The stats don’t really do either offense justice; they are two explosive units that can light a game on fire at any given time. With Hill looking set to return after a two-week absence, the potential for fireworks is even greater. On the flip side, while the Cowboys’ offense stunk out the place last week, they surely can’t be as bad again and Miami’s defense is far from impenetrable, having given up 355, 414, and 403 years respectively to the Eagles, the Bills, and the Titans.

Hill’s participation still hasn’t been confirmed, and there’s a risk that he is not quite at 100% even if he does play, despite Miami’s best efforts. But even Hill at 80% would be a razor-sharp threat.

He has been thrust into the MVP conversation thanks to his form which has seen him amass 1,542 yards (118.6 average), 7.5 receptions per game, and 97 catches (fourth in the NFL). He’s been targeted 132 times and has an NFL-best 12 receiving TDs this season.

At the time of writing, Caesars had by far the best odds of Hill grabbing a TD, at +100. If you fancy him to return with a sonic boom, you can get odds as long as +650 for him to score twice or more.

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