Coyotes vs Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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29 February 2024

Coyotes vs Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Toronto's power-play unit has been firing on all cylinders of late and given how much time the Coyotes spend in the box, our NHL betting picks expect it to produce again tonight.

We’ve got 12 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including a cross-conference clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Arizona Coyotes.

The NHL odds suggest the Leafs should win, and I think they’ll lean on a red-hot power play once again to get it done against one of the league's worst teams.

Find out why in my free NHL picks for this February 29 matchup.

Coyotes vs Maple Leafs odds

Coyotes vs Maple Leafs predictions

Is it streak-snapping night at Scotiabank Arena?

The Toronto Maple Leafs will try to win their first home game in regulation against the Arizona Coyotes since 2002. Meanwhile, the Yotes are in the midst of a 13-game winning streak and will loook to win their first game since January 22.

These two teams played last week when the Buds came away with a 6-3 win at Mullet Arena.

The Leafs were dominant in all aspects of that game last Wednesday but were especially good on the man advantage, where the team scored twice. That power play has been on fire by the way, operating at a 51.9% clip in February.

This is where I think there’s good value on board for tonight's Leafs and Coyotes game.

The Coyotes are an extremely undisciplined team — ranking fourth in the NHL this season with 263 penalties taken — and have killed off just 74% of the penalties they’ve taken since the All-Star break. That should bode well for Toronto, which boasts the league's hottest power play.

When the Leafs have drawn two or more penalties over their last eight games, the Buds have converted in six. Couple that with Arizona’s propensity to find themselves in the penalty box, Toronto should get ample opportunity to find success on the man advantage tonight.

The player I’m circling as the best bet to produce on the power play tonight is Auston Matthews. He scored a goal against this penalty-kill unit last week and has seven power-play points in his last seven games. He’s also the team leader with 15 goals on the man advantage and second on the team with 24 power-play points overall.

My best bet: Auston Matthews Over 0.5 power-play points (+120 at SIA)

Coyotes vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay

Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer

Leafs team total Over 3.5

Leafs to score first

We’ll mirror my Matthews power-play bet with an anytime goal. He scored twice last week against the Coyotes and has 28 goals in 27 home games so far this season, so he’ll look to get back into the scoring column after back-to-back games without a goal.

Next up, I’m fading the Coyotes' defense and goaltending with a play on the Leafs to go Over their team total of 3.5 goals. Arizona has given up an average of 4.62 goals per game over this 13-game losing streak, including a 6-spot to these same Leafs a week ago, who are averaging a league-leading 4.23 goals per game in that same stretch.

Let’s also roll with the Leafs to score the first goal of the game. Toronto has scored first in 56% of their games, while the Yotes have allowed the first tally 35 times over 58 games (60%).

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Coyotes vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs come into tonight as the betting favorites at -250 with the Coyotes entering as +200 road dogs. This is a trap game of all trap games for the Leafs tonight. Toronto is the far superior team and has played some of their best hockey of late, including a 6-3 shellacking of the Coyotes a week ago.

However, the Leafs just can’t seem to beat Arizona in Toronto. Their last regulation win over the Yotes was back in October 2002. Common sense would suggest the Leafs should eventually win considering how much better of a team they are, but at -250, it’s just not worth laying that type of juice with that trend ongoing.

The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5 with the Over at -120 and the Under at +100. The Over is a combined 13-4-3 over the last 10 games combined between the Leafs and Yotes.

I do expect Toronto to fill the net quite often, but Toronto has struggled to keep the puck out of their net on home ice this year, allowing 3.39 goals per game. Plus, the Over has hit in three of the last four meetings between these two teams.