Maple Leafs vs Bruins Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Covers

02 November 2023

While odds for this clash between old-time rivals have tightened with the news that Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy will start serving a four-game suspension tonight, our betting picks don't expect a sudden offensive explosion from the Leafs.

We’ve got four games on the NHL docket tonight, including an electric Atlantic Division showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins.

Toronto would love to be the team that gives Boston its first regulation loss of the season, but will the Buds get enough offense to make that happen? The NHL odds suggest it should be a low-scoring game, so perhaps not.

Find out why in my free NHL picks for this November 2 matchup between old-time rivals.

Maple Leafs vs Bruins odds

Maple Leafs vs Bruins predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs head back on the road looking for a bounce-back performance against the Boston Bruins after a dismal performance at home against LA on Tuesday night. As for the Bruins, they’re nine games into their season without a regulation blemish, but they will be without star defenseman Charlie McAvoy, who begins his four-game suspension tonight.

Boston won the season series last year 3-1-0 and allowed an average of just two goals in those four games, and I think that defensive dominance continues into the new season.

Let’s break it down.

Boston has been incredible to start the campaign, giving up a league-low 1.56 goals per game with a team save percentage of .974. That’s unbelievable in 2023, where goal-scoring is trending upward, and I don’t see why the Bruins wouldn’t continue to play this way.

The team is big and physical, much like the Kings, and that style of play has always given the Leafs problems. It’s been four meetings in a row between these teams where Toronto has been held to three or fewer goals. This could become problematic once again for a Leafs offense that is already middling to start the year, ranking just 15th in NHL scoring and just 24th in goals at 5-on-5.

The even-strength scoring woes are worrisome in a game like tonight's, with guys like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner struggling to find offense there, combining for just three goals this year at 5-on-5.

The power play has really been the driver of this team’s offense early on this year, ranking 5th in the league with a 33% success rate. However, as shown against LA, when the PP is shut down, the Leafs have trouble sparking their offense. This becomes problematic against a Bruins team killing off a league-leading 97% of its penalties.

Sure, the Bruins will be without stud defenseman Charlie McAvoy, and that is a big absence but Boston has a strong culture and has always had a next-man-up mentality. The Bruins will look to fill his role by committee and will probably find success, as they seem to always do.

I think there’s a chance Toronto can sneak out a low-scoring win here tonight, but a track meet game against Boston seems unlikely.

My best bet: Maple Leafs team total Under 3.5 (-190 at SIA)

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Maple Leafs vs Bruins same-game parlay

Maple Leafs TT Under 3.5

Under 6.5

Maple Leafs +1.5

For tonight’s same-game parlay, I like a low-scoring affair from both sides.

For leg one, we’ll take my best bet of Leafs U 3.5 goals. No matter who is in net for the Bruins, it’ll be difficult to score as Boston gives up a league-low 1.56 goals per game while Toronto’s production at 5-on-5 has been lackluster.

Next up, I like for this game to go Under the total of 6.5 goals as well, and I’m willing to buy the hook on a parlay here to get the extra comfort. The Unders have been hitting constantly for both teams this year, with Boston games averaging just 4.77 goals and Toronto matchups combining for 6.33. This trend has a strong chance to continue in this rivalry game tonight.

For the final leg of my parlay, I like the Leafs to keep it close. If we’re expecting a low-scoring game, rarely do these turn into blowouts or multi-goal victories. As such, I like the Leafs on the spread at +1.5. They could win, but this bet would give Toronto a buffer should the game end in overtime or in a one-goal loss, which is what we’ve seen from this matchup in three of the last four meetings.

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Maple Leafs vs Bruins moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Leafs opened up on the moneyline as high as +140 underdogs at some books, but have since seen their odds shorten to -110, which now matches the Bruins in what is basically a pick ‘em. The change in odds corresponds with the news of the Charlie McAvoy suspension, as he is now slated to be out for four games, starting with the Thursday night matchup against Toronto.

However, home-ice advantage has been meaningful between these teams, with the home side winning four of the last five meetings.

The total for tonight’s game was set at 6.0 goals. The Over is paying even money at +100, while the Under is giving -120 odds. Both teams have played tight, low-scoring games this season, with the Under a combined 13-4-1. Boston is giving up an average of just two goals on home ice per game, while Toronto’s 5-on-5 scoring has been cold. The Under does seem like the play here tonight, as it’s also taken in 67% of the total handle.