Crewe Alexandra vs Derby County Odds, Prediction & Betting Tips
League Two Crewe Alexandra meet League One Derby County in Sunday's FA Cup first round tie scheduled for viewing on ITVX at 2:45pm.
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League Two top scorers Crewe sit in 5th place having played 16 times, picking up points on 13 occasions. Cup competitions have been mostly unrewarding for Alexandra so far this season, winning their first EFL Cup outing on penalties against Sunderland followed by a penalty shootout loss in the next round with Port Vale before Football League Trophy defeats to Vale and Wrexham.
Derby are positioned just outside of the League One play-offs - the same feat which eluded them by a single point during their first campaign back in England's third tier. Having gone off as favourites for the league title, the alarming fact for those associated with County is their failure to build any real form, securing back-to-back victories only once all season and not again since August.
Crewe Alexandra vs Derby County Tips
Although there are 26 places in the Football League between this pair, the FA Cup is the perfect humbling stage for teams in higher divisions. After suffering relegation to the fourth tier two seasons ago, Crewe had a stable season in the lower league half of the league table before now mounting a serious promotion challenge this campaign.
11 of Crewe's 16 league matches have seen both teams notch, with Alexandra hitting 35 goals and conceding 25. As highlighted previously, those 35 goals are a division high in League Two, while the total they've shipped is more than nine of the other 11 teams in the top half of their league.
Over half of Derby's matches have seen BTTS this term - a record which jumps up to 62.5 when County are playing away from home. This run has been particularly prevalent as of late, with the bet clicking in four of their last five games on the road.
Continuing the belief that there won't be much between these two on Sunday, we're placing trust in the pair having to run this tie back to determine who will progress to the second round.
Derby have severely underperformed pre-season expectations of running away with the league. Considering how they've only mustered one set of consecutive wins across all fixtures and how they blew through Northampton Town last time out, there's good reason to believe that trend will continue in a tricky first round away trip to Crewe.
Derby have drawn three matches this term, two of which came against Cheltenham and Cambridge - two fixtures they went off as odds-on favourites against and can be deemed occasions of dropping points in their request for a return to the Championship. Add to that a narrow victory over Notts County in the Football League Trophy group stages, which may give readers an indication of how close Sunday's match will be.
Crewe have five losses but four of these have seen the succumb to strong opposition - twice to League One Port Vale, to Wrexham in the Football League Trophy and to league leaders Stockport County. However, league draws with Wrexham and Mansfield in League Two, plus sharing the honours with second tier outfit Sunderland in 90 minutes of their first round EFL Cup fixture gives just as much of an indication of how far Alexandra have come since the plummet two seasons ago.
