Cricket betting tips: New Zealand v England first Test preview and best bets

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13 February 2023

Cricket betting tips: New Zealand v England first Test preview and best bets

Cricket tips: New Zealand v England first Test

2pts Ollie Robinson top England first-innings bowler at 100/30 (StarSports)

2pts Matt Henry top New Zealand first-innings bowler at 7/2 (General)

The last time England played a Test match at the Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui, back in 2019, they spent 201 overs in the field as New Zealand amassed 615-9 declared, BJ Watling grinding his way to a memorable double-century.

Conditions on this ground were again good for batting when Bangladesh won here last year, a victory made possible by their big first-innings score of 458, and England will be hoping for more of the same when play a day/night Test at the same venue, starting in the early hours of Thursday morning, UK time.

England's Test resurgence in the last 12 months has been built by the brilliant captain/coach combination of Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum, and it has been the batting that has really prospered under the new leadership team.

The likes of Ollie Pope and Jonny Bairstow have been set free under Stokes, encouraged to back their attacking instincts regardless of the situation, and it has paid dividends handsomely.

England batted magnificently to rout this very opposition 3-0 at home last summer, and further victories over India, South Africa and Pakistan followed.

When the going has been good, and the pitches at home last summer and in Pakistan before Christmas were generally favourable for batting, England’s batting has excelled. But there have been occasions – like when Trent Boult ran through their top order at Headingley or when collapsing in the first Test of that series at Lord’s – when this line-up has come unstuck.

Wet forecast could make for tough conditions

There is no Boult to worry about in this series, but a shocking weather forecast for the build-up and the first few days of the Test does raise the possibility of challenging batting conditions and as such, the high scores we have seen on this ground in the last few years aren’t certain to be replicated – in the first innings at least.

I say that because the forecast for later in the match, at the time of writing anyway, is very good and I wouldn’t be at all surprised were the second innings to prove the best time to bat.

We’re too far out to make any firm assumptions regarding that, but many England cricket fans will remember Christchurch 2002, when both teams were bowled out cheaply in the first innings, before Graham Thorpe and Nathan Astle traded double-hundreds as big runs were piled on second time around.

This is a different ground of course, but cricket in New Zealand can sometimes be like that, with overhead conditions so important, and it’s certainly something for in-running players to be aware of.

For now, I’m keen on two in the top bowler markets on Thursday, with OLLIE ROBINSON still looking overpriced for England at 100/30 (StarSports).

Either side of a fitness layoff last winter, Robinson has looked right at home in Test cricket and from 14 matches, he now has 60 wickets at an average 20.01.

Those are impressive numbers, and in taking nine wickets on some of the most unresponsive pitches imaginable in Pakistan just a few months ago, he has proven himself to be a man for all conditions.

Robinson didn’t begin last summer in the England starting XI that beat New Zealand, but he ended it with 12 wickets from two Tests against South Africa and significantly, was handed the new ball ahead of Stuart Broad.

The latter might well earn a recall on Thursday, having missed Pakistan for the birth of his first child, but it will be Robinson who again shares the new ball with James Anderson, and it’s Robinson who we want to be with.

Those two Tests against South Africa saw Robinson win this market twice across four innings, and while I have the utmost respect for Anderson, Robinson’s appears to have that priceless gift of taking wickets even when not at his best.

Furthermore, Robinson is an exceptional bowler to left-handers and with the Kiwis potentially fielding three lefties in their top four, and Michael Bracewell another at number seven, there is only one way I'm going here.

Hoover up value with Henry

For New Zealand, I make MATT HENRY a bet at 7/2.

I’ve long been a fan of Henry and while he’s often missed out because of the Boult/Tim Southee partnership that has served New Zealand cricket so well for so long, that will now change following Boult’s decision to give up his central contract and pursue more freelance opportunities in the franchise leagues around the world.

Henry came in for the second Test against Pakistan in January, in the tour of Pakistan that followed England’s, and he bowled pretty well on another lifeless surface that offered nothing to the seamers.

But at home, when the ball can swing and seam, is where Henry excels. Or indeed in England, where he has such a fine record in County Cricket and picked up a Man of the Match award when New Zealand beat England at Edgbaston in 2021.

Henry can really make the ball talk when there is something in the surface, and I reckon first up with rain around might be the time to catch the tall, bustling 31-year-old seamer.

Let’s not forget that this is a day/night Test and while I tend to think teams have often been guilty of expecting the pink ball to do too much, it generally does offer something in that twilight period when the floodlights begin to take effect.

That would suit Henry ideally, should the opportunity arise, and while similar comments are applicable to Southee, his numbers have been on the decline in the last year or so.

While I’m not too interested in the one Test he has played so far in 2023, coming on a flat deck in Pakistan, he averaged 38.89 with the ball across 2022 when he took a mauling at the hands of England.

Perhaps it’s too early to be writing Southee off, while the returning Kyle Jamieson is another live threat, but Henry looks to have lots going for him this week and is worth a spin at 7/2.